Fire Gardy

Fox sports released their power rankings for the 2008 MLB season.  The Twins are ranked 20th with the following blurb

You don’t lose stars like Johan Santana and center fielder Torii Hunter and get better. But the Twins didn’t exactly come away empty this spring. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez will be solid, possibly great, performers for years to come. The pitching could be competitive if Francisco Liriano comes all the way back and Boof Bonser takes a step forward.

I think this is a decent preseason ranking, after losing two all-stars its hard to rank us very high.  That being said, I think we are better than the white sox, who are ranked 17th.  3 spots in a preseason ranking really doesn’t mean much. 

The top three of the Tigers, Indians, and Red Sox is a pretty safe bet.  I think having the D-Backs at 4 is a little nuts.  In my opinion no NL team cracks the top 5.  After the Red Sox, I see LAA and the Yankees.  Maybe I would drop the Yankees below the D-backs because they have three young starters they are relying a lot on.  I disagree with the Royals being dead last.  They are slightly better than that.  The Pirates, in my opinion, are the least talented organization from top to bottom in the majors.  The Royals probably come in third to last ahead of the Marlins and the Pirates. 

It is difficult to rank AL teams against NL teams.  They really should do two seperate lists.  There were non-playoff AL teams that were better than playoff NL playoff teams.  The Cubs come to mind, mainly because I don’t like them, but also they were not very good last year.  Them winning the NL central was like when the Twins won the AL central when it was the worst division in the history of sports. 

 Note: Liriano will be late for camp due to visa problems stemming from his 2006 DUI.  They are saying a week at most.  He has to go to a alcohol management class or something in order to get his work visa.  Doesn’t seem like it will be a big problem.

After yesterday’s discussion, it really sounds like there is no clear-cut best choice for CF.  Every option has almost equal weighted pros and cons.  This is unfortunate because Gardy can’t be trusted with difficult, season altering decisions.  He is also prone to changing his mind too quickly.  If he decides to put Pridie in CF, and could yank him after a few bad ABs and plug Monroe in there, even if Monroe took zero reps in CF during Spring Training.  He tries to cover up a bad decision with another bad decision, and it ends up spiraling out of control.

Note: There will be no Roger Clemens/Steroids discussions in this space. Ever.

The next important task for the Twins is figuring out who will play CF.  As of now it looks like Pridie/Gomez/Span will compete for the job.  Another thought would be to play Monroe there for at least half of of the season so Gomez or Pridie can adjust.  Neither situation is ideal, but the latter could be nice because it would keep Monroe in the lineup.  If he is sitting on the bench he will be burning a hole in Gardy’s pocket and I am afraid he would steal ABs from Kubel.  I know he isn’t great in CF, but he will be serviceable.

A third option would be to sign Kenny Lofton or Corey Patterson.  My problem with Patterson is he would be almost no different than playing Gomez right now.  Lofton is too old to play center at the level he used to, but still wouldn’t be worse than Monroe.  There really isn’t a clear cut good choice, the Twins just need to make one and stick with it.  They shouldn’t allow Gomez and Pridie platoon at the major league level (or any level for that matter). Make a choice and stick with it. Whether its Monroe, one of the young guys, or a 1 year free agent stop gap.  

Considering the equipment truck is on its way to FL, signing a free agent would have to happen soon.  I know Delmon Young has played a game or two in center and he is a freak athlete so he might be worth a look, but I would prefer we just stick him in left and let him mash the ball. 

Looks like the Twins picked up livan hernandez.  He can earn close to 7 million with incentives.  Not sure how I feel about this move.  Sure, he can eat innings, and he isn’t that old.  However, he has a ton of miles on him so who knows.  This could be another Ponson move, but I think everyone can agree the Livan is much better than Ponson or Ortiz, Ramon.  Although he has never pitched in the AL, this move is basically like having Silva for less money.  He give up more homers than Silva, but he provides some stability to the young rotation.

I just wanted to share this with you guys:

“Manny being Manny–I know what that means now. He’s an intense workout partner. I think people perceive him the wrong way sometimes, because this guy really loves the game. He loves everything that goes along with it. He’s working out hard and he’s going to be ready to play this season, for sure.”
–Twins infielder Nick Punto, on working out with Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez this offseason.

That’s right. Punto worked out with Manny this offseason. He describes Manny as his “workout partner.” So what can we take from this? That Punto has learned to start raising his hands victoriously after smashing a lazy fly ball to left field? Or that he’s learned how to make sure his helmet falls off when he runs?

And … why did Manny Ramirez work out with Nick Punto? I think that is the best example ever of “Manny being Manny.” He’s just a bit of a weird guy.

Gleeman touched on this topic today, but I would like to discuss it further.  Why is Gardy so afraid of using both Redmond and Mauer in the lineup at the same time?  Why is he so scared of losing his DH?  Is having a pitcher hit that much worse than using Tyner or Rondell White?  I think it is safe to say that our best bat off the bench was Mike Redmond, so isn’t having him sit on the bench instead of used as the DH a waste and detrimental to the team?  His doomsday scenario only played out once last year.  In the second game of that double header against the white sox in July.  We won. In that game Redmond got hurt in the first inning, so Gardy had to play by NL rules all game.  If memory serves we scored about 12 runs that game (after putting up over 20 in the first game), and how many times did we score in double digits all year?  Not many.  So it seems like we play better when using NL rules because nobody expects the pitcher to produce.  He usually stirkes out or can lay down a nice bunt.  Where as the White/Tyner types hit into a double play or some other very unproductive out.  I think Gardy should face his fear and just put the best lineup he can on the field without worrying about losing his DH for a few innings.  It’s a long season, so maybe having to actively manage NL style every once in a while will keep him sharp.  I just hate to see the twins lose games because of Gardy’s irrational fear of losing his DH.

As we near the reporting of pitchers and catchers to spring training, I start to get very excited about my near annual hajj to Ft. Myers.  For those Twins fans (or baseball fans in general) who have not been to Ft. Myers, you are missing out on a trip of a lifetime.  Whether you are taking a family trip, or going with your drunken, idiot friends (like me) there is something in store for all.  The Lee County Sports Complex is widely regarded as the best Spring Training facility in Major League Baseball.  I do not know if it is the best or not, but I can tell you first hand that it is leaps and bounds better than the Red Sox training facility, also located in Ft. Myers.  The Twins facility offers up close views of players taking infield, hitting in the batting cages, and pitching in the batting cages, all without purchasing a ticket.  Also, on off days, you can get a free look at an intrasquad scrimmage or practice.  If you are an autograph seeker, there are many easy opportunities to get signatures.  At the Red Sox facility, all you can do without a ticket is park far away, and buy overpriced Red Sox merchandise. 

There are also plenty of great beaches and restaurants in the area, including great seafood.  Ft. Myers Beach provides many miles of white sandy beaches, complete with areas for young people to party (lots of bars), as well as areas for adults and families to relax and play.  Sanibel Island is also is a great place to visit, and also contains one of my favorite restaurants of all time, The Timbers Restaurant.  I suggest the cruchy grouper. (Just to keep in mind, I love good food at a cheap price and cold beer) All in all, every Twins fan needs to make this trip at least once.  Even if the game you see has a starting third baseman whose number is 92, he is not listed in the program, and he is still better than Punto; it is great to sit in the warm sun and watch outdoor baseball during February or March.  You will find many great Minnesotans down there, and they are very easy to spot due to their extreme paleness.  Plan this trip and you will definitely go back.

It looks like the A’s are looking to move Joe Blanton.  According to mlbtraderumors.com the Reds have inquired and the price is high.  They say either Homer Bailey, widely considered one of the top pitching prospects in the NL. Or Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and a third player. From 2005-2007 Votto went from high A to AAA, spending one season at each level. In 2007 at AAA he hit 294/381/478 with 22 homers. His k’s were high, but he is still an top hitting prospect. If memory serves he has a leg up for a starting job in the Reds outfield for 2008. That is insane.  Bailey is projected to be a contributor in the Reds rotation.  So either package demanded by Beane would include a projected ML starter.  Joe Blanton is a middle of the rotation starter, solid but not spectatular.  Would you give up top young talent for a young version of Kenny Rogers or Jimmy Key or Brad Radke?  Seems like the Reds would be dumb to make either of those deals. Bill Beane is like that kid in your fantasy baseball league who proposes really dumb, one sided, trades and tries to convince you its a good deal.  “Joe Blanton is set to have a dominant, breakout year, I swear! Give me Reyes and Cabrera for him. It will give you pitching depth.”  Shutup Billy Beane.

Update: Joe C notes that the twins are not in conversation with the A’s about Blanton.  Good.

Jim caple wrote an article about Minnesota sports teams losing their best players.  He has a pretty good point.  However, I really don’t thinking losing Johan was so much a money thing as it was a number of years thing.  Word on the street is we offered him 5/100MM, but were unwilling to give him the 6 year extension he wanted.  It also seems the Yankees backed out too because they were gunshy about a lenghty contract for a pitcher.  I think it makes perfect sense.  For the most part pitchers have the biggest risk of injury of anyone on the field.  I know Johan is a special player, but I just don’t think 7 years is a wise investment. Its one thing to give Morneau an 80MM contract, he plays on average 150 games a year.  But giving a player who plays once every five days a 7 year 150 million contract is pretty risky.  It didn’t work for Kevin Brown, Barry Zito, Mike Hampton, it worked well for Randy Johnson for a few years, but isn’t that the point?  Of all pitchers with around 100MM+ contracts how many were still worth 20+ million in the 6th and 7th years of their contract?  The Mets may view it as a wise investment, to have a good pitcher at 20+MM a year for 5 years, and dead weight at 20+MM for 2 years.  They view that extra 40MM as a sunk cost, or something.  When I sign a player to a contract I would expect the player to be effective for all the years of the contract and would consider it a failure if he was totally useless for the last two years of it.  Don’t get me wrong, I would love to have Johan for 5 more years, but have more than 20% of our payroll in the last two years of his contract dedicated to him when he barely puts a jersey on in those two years?  Dicey at best.

I blame Brian Sabean for this.  What was he thinking when he gave Zito that much money. He was coming off a bad year, and he still couldn’t cut it in the NL.  I feel a little bad for the Indians because CC should be able to get about the same contract as Johan, he is about a year younger, and just as durable.  His weight could become a problem.  The difference is, the Indians have a good chance to win next year, it should be a battle to the wire with the Tigers. 

One trend that I would love to see Gardy stop doing is by using Sundays as a rest day for the majority of the starters. It seems like the general lineup the Twins throw out there on Sundays makes it damn near impossible to win.  It bugged me even more when he would do this with Santana pitching.  I understand that players need rest, (except for Bronko Nagurski, he never got off days or bye weeks) and it is difficult to play a day game after a night game, but I would rather see players off days be spread out a little more, rather than put an entire roster full of Puntos and Tyners on to the field.