Call Him “Ace”
Well, leave it to Gardy to screw up the pitching staff as badly as the lineup. Reports are coming out today that he’s planning to use Livan Hernandez as the Opening Day Starter. That’s right. The “ace” of our staff is the fourth best pitcher in the rotation (at best).
Why? you may ask. Why would someone do such a thing. Well, it’s quite simple, really.
“He knows how to pitch; he’s done it,” Gardenhire said. “He’s proven himself in this league, and I think he probably has another level. I think we’ve seen it before, so we’ve kind of learned not to panic.”It’s a good thing “making starts” is more important than doing well in them. (Livan’s spring stats: 1-1 with an 8.00 ERA in three starts.) And it’s good to know that Gardy values “sucking for a long time” over “performance on the field.” I don’t even see how the two compare.
Livan has made 8 Opening Day starts in his career, with the Marlins, Giants, Expos, and Nationals. I find it difficult to believe that Gardenhire can’t connect the dots here. What do all four of those teams have in common? Do we really want to put Twins on that list of “Most Pathetic Franchises in the League?”
While I don’t think there’s a clear cut option for an Opening Day starter on this team (because Liriano probably won’t be ready), I do think Livan is about the worst option. I’d much rather have Baker, Boof, Slowey, Blackburn, Humber, FunBobby, or my little sister make the first start than Livan Hernandez.
Maybe I’m wrong. But I just get a little more excited about “young guys who look like they might be good” than “old guys who’ve proven they suck by sucking consistently for 10 years.” Gardy clearly disagrees.
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Leave it to Ron Gardenhire to give me a purpose in life after I’m done with school. That purpose is noble and true and involves the complete desecration and humiliation of Ron Gardenhire culminating in a pink slip and a boot to the ass!
I now need to figure out how I can affix the quote “Fire Gardy!” all over my body without permanently affecting future job opportunities (if things go well this shouldn’t last more than a year).
Consider this a public service Twins nation and perhaps a suicide mission, but I am willing to take one for the team!
I don’t think it’s worth “a suicide mission,” but your enthusiasm is duly noted!
I had to look at all these fabulous starts by Hernandez on opening day:
98 – 5.1 inn, 5 runs (W) – bad 00 – 6 inn, 5 runs (L) – bad 01 – 7.1 inn, 2 runs (W) – good 02 – 8 inn, 2 runs (W) – good 04 – 6 inn, 2 runs (ND) – good 05 – 4.2 inn, 7 runs (L) – bad 06 – 6 inn, 3 runs (L) – average
That’s 3 good starts, 1 average start, and 3 bad ones. With a 5.4 ERA. This obviously shows that Livan “has been there before” and can “handle the pressure.”
Not to mention how he’s going to screw up Gomez for the rest of his career… starting him in CF this year and in the leadoff spot is probably the worst thing possible, not to mention as soon as he bats 0 for his first 15 AB’s, Span will take his place and Gomez will ride the bench, ever so destroying his confidence and wasting service time when he should be in AAA… thanks Gardy for a great season that you’ve ruined before we started!!
Thanks for thinking that I have a better shot as opening day starter than Livan. I think at games they should play that song “Livan” by Elton John, about a father named Livan who names his son Jesus, and his son hates him. Hates him so much he contemplates flying away on a balloon while “Livan, Livan slowly dies”, I think we will slowly be dying while watching Livan pitch. After about 5 of his starts I get the feeling I will want to fly away in a balloon.
MarkW, thanks for looking at the numbers!
They certainly don’t indicate that he’s proven the ability to handle the pressure of Opening Day. (Although they’re not as bad as I’d feared; I’ll take 8 innings and 2 runs out of Livan every day of the week.)
I’ve been so hung up on how bad an idea it is to have Gomez start the season as the leadoff guy I’d forgotten to fear the fact that Gardy will jerk his chain and do his best to ruin Gomez’s career. Great.
If I knew anybody who works in the Dome, I’d definitely have them play Elton John’s Levon every time Livan takes the mound. I personally think that’s an awesome idea, and it simply must happen. (Also, I’m impressed that you listened to the words that much, Mr FunBobby.)
It’s a good song. Although, I’m sure from now on, every time I hear it I will think of stupid Livan Hernandez and will get angry.
I think it’s amusing that we thought it was a good signing, and through no fault of Livan’s we now have reason to dislike him.
Leave it to Gardy to make that happen.
I was waiting for someone to bring that up. I like the fact that he is on the team, I don’t like how they are expecting him to contribute, and putting him in situations that matter. I view him as a guy to pitch garbage innings every 5th day. He needs to be matched up against other back of the rotation starters, instead he is pitching against John Lackey on opening day.
Right on. If we picked him up to be the #4 starter … why promote him to #1? Based on his performance?
By the way … at the start of camp, all the talk was that Baker was the likely Opening Day starter. He has a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts, to Livan’s 8.00 ERA in 3 starts. 4 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 0 HR in 4 innings to 3 K, 2 BB, 15 H, 2 HR in 9 innings.
But Livan’s been around long enough to be able to say “Oh, well, I never do well in spring training!” And Gardy’s just dumb enough to not make the immediate correlation that he’s also never been good during the regular season, either.
Speaking of Baker, I’ve heard he may be on the DL to start the year, anyone hear anything about that? I haven’t had time to find out and confirm it.. might just be a nasty rumor I’m spreading! great.
Sirsean – it may appear that it doesn’t look as bad as feared but remember, that was 2002 (6 years ago), 05, 06 weren’t so much, and lest we forget, he didn’t open anything in 2007…
Basically, Gardy is saying “well, I’ll just start the year off on the wrong foot, cause I always end up there soon enough (when Punto makes his first appearance!)
I’d like to delve into Gomez starting a little more… basically they are saying it’s him or Span and the other will be in AAA. What’s wrong with Pridie? I dont get it… he should be starting, he’s 25/26 yrs old and we aren’t doing ourselves any favors by putting Span out there to just suck or putting Gomez out there to shoot his confidence all to sh*!. Exhibit A: Alexi Casilla – what happened when we brought him up to take over for Luis Castillo, a young guy with tons of speed and great potential, yet no plate discipline… he fails at the plate, he can’t get on base, we switch him from #1 to #2, to #9, to #8, back to #1, etc etc… then we send him back to the minors with his tail tucked between his legs all the while he’s thinking, “I blew it” “I blew it” What good does this do? Just be prepared that we insert ‘Carlos Gomez’ as the next Alexi experiment…
Just think of what 2009 could look like if Gardy isn’t/wouldn’t/doesn’t F up 2008.
Now I’ve just ticked myself off again… damn it.
Yeah, I’ve heard Baker tweaked his back and if he isn’t healthy enough to make his next start it looks as though he will start the season on the DL.
I’d heard he tweaked his back … though I hadn’t heard anyone thought it was bad enough for a DL stint. The last I’d heard of it, they were saying he could pitch through it but there’s no point to do that during Spring Training. We’ll see what happens there.
From what I’ve read Re: CF, the big knock against Pridie is that he’s the most versatile and well rounded of the three, which means it’s easiest to move him away from CF. Doesn’t seem like that much of a knock against him. But what do I know?
Casilla wasn’t quite ready to take his lumps in the majors last year. But he seems to be ready now. Gardy didn’t help by jerking him around, but he didn’t hurt him that much either; Casilla was just too overmatched. In the long run, it may have helped. Let’s just hope Gardy hasn’t already decided Casilla’s ultimate fate.
Gomez 2008 is probably in the same spot as Casilla 2007. He needs more time in AAA to improve his game (and learn how to play). Then we bring him up in August to take his lumps (without shipping him back and forth in a desperate attempt to make our veterans look/feel good about themselves). Then Gomez 2009 is Jose Reyes.
That’s what could happen. Unfortunately, we have the love child of Tom Kelly, Joe Torre, and Dusty Baker on our team. And given the lack of crappy veterans on the team, Gardy has to find new bad decisions to make.
At first I wanted to start the season with Gomez in center field, but seeing how he has performed so far in spring training, that would be a very bad idea. Pridie deserves at least a shot at the starting job. He has gotten very few ABs. I can’t remember if he has even started a game in centerfield. Give him a chance Gardy.
Hey gang. The Livan experiment is a joke. The fact he will be the starting opening day pitcher is an inditement on Tardy and Billy Smith. I can’t believe we are doing this all over again…and this year we have no chance to compete.
It drives me nuts. I am new to this blog as I am tired of the strib. Everyone on there drinks the Kool Aid.
Any news on Nathan? We need to trade him. There is no chance we are competitive in the next two years, unless Liriano becomes himself from 2 years ago, like today. Otherwise our pitching is too young and we are terrible up the middle (SS, 2nd, and CF). I say we trade him. If we sign him for 3-4 years we might only get a year out of him when it matters (which means he will be 35 or 36). But Tardy thinks he is more important than Hunter or Santana…great. Keep up the good work everyone!
p.s. we are in trouble in CF no matter who we have, at least for this year.
If we end up trading Nathan, I think July is the time to do it. The market for him will be hottest at the deadline, when contending teams realize that they could really use an elite closer for their run at the pennant.
I personally don’t want to see Nathan traded, though. He anchors the bullpen, and allows us to use shutdown guys for the 7th and 8th innings. Without Nathan, everyone gets pushed back … and we see more Rincon/Depaula/Cali in important situations.
But if he wants “market rates” for his services … ie 4 years, $45-60M … then we just can’t sign him. I’d do a 3 year, $30M deal or so, but I don’t think he’ll want to “leave money on the table” this time around. We’ll see.
If we trade Nathan, I’d like to see us get as big a haul as possible. And I think that’s happening at the trade deadline.
CF is a lost cause this year… they should have signed Lofton and kicked Span off the team all together, Pridie on the bench as your 5th OF or whatever, then Gomez spends all year in AAA. But we all know that just makes waaaay too much sense, so we’ll just spend $6 MILLION on a crappy washed up veteran presence who can handle the “pressures” of starting opening day – ugh! Anyways, as for Nathan, I agree on all points, we can’t sign him for that amount of money, which the market will demand for one of the top 3 “closers” in baseball… someone (Cubs, Padres, Rangers, Mariners, Mets) will overpay for Nathan, what we need to look at is getting a 3B out of the deal… we have Lamb for 2 yrs, but beyond that we have nothing and it hasn’t been addressed in the draft or any other trades since Koskie left… that HAS to be their goal when/if trading Nathan. Sirsean, I agree he has a great impact on the bullpen and probably is a great leader for the other guys, but does it matter this year if we try out 3-4 guys in the same “closer role” this year? I think Neshek should get the job, but Gardy is an idiot and keeps saying there’s no way Neshek closes… of course we have a plethora of pitchers that could step in next year and become the next Joe Nathan.
Sorry, I just have one more thing on being a closer… Closers were made up as we probably all know, the media labeled the last guy to pitch at the end of the game a “closer” so as to hype up the moment, make it bigger than it really is… but really, would you want your best pitcher to come in the game in the 6th inning with 2 guys on, tie game, 1 out and get you out of the inning? or have him come in the 9th inning, nobody on and retire the side when up by 3 runs?? It’s just way to arbitrary and way to circumstantial to debate that a closer has to have a certain makeup… i mean, which situation is more intense or demands more mental stability?? ok, I’m done
I’ve read a lot of statistical analysis about “closers” and “saves,” and the stat guys generally think it’s all a bunch of crap. Largely for the reasons you’ve stated.
But I look at it this way: Nathan has demonstrated that he’s an excellent “9th inning guy” (note that I didn’t say “closer”), whereas Neshek hasn’t. Also, Neshek has shown signs of wearing down with overuse in each of his two seasons in the majors. Maybe his switch to veganism and actually sticking to his in-season workout plan will make a difference … but I’m not all that willing to go out on a limb and make a big bet on that.
If Nathan goes, we lose an elite reliever. (We’re spoiled by having three of them, really.) That means Neshek/Guerrier are in the 8th and 9th innings, rather than 7th and 8th. Which means we either rely on crappier relievers or put more of a strain on a young rotation (Mark Prior and Kerry Wood and hundreds of other over-used young pitchers would tell us not to do that).
And finally … the 9th inning isn’t totally meaningless. It’s not necessarily “just another inning.” Hitters have a lot of leverage in that inning. One swing of the bat can swing the game one way or the other; if you take a lead in the 9th, you’ll probably win, whereas if you take a lead in the 6th, the other team has a few innings to come back. I believe outs in the 9th are a little more important than outs in the 6th, and I’d much rather have Nathan out there than Rincon.
Also, to address the 2-on 1-out scenario you brought up … some guys just don’t do that well when they come on with guys on base. Pitchers who are like that should be either starters or closers. I haven’t seen many situations where Nathan has come on in the middle of an inning, which means he hasn’t demonstrated (at least to me) the ability to handle that. Guerrier and Neshek have.
(That was a bit long. I’ll just finish by pointing out that we’re ignoring Bobby Korecky, who may be ready to join the club sometime this year, and has potential to be a good closer.)
Sirsean, All very valid points and I certainly don’t disagree that losing Nathan pushes our bullpen back that one more guy we can rely on.
One note on Neshek, if he was moved to the “9th inning role” (I like that better than closer!) wouldn’t that save his arm and keep him from wearing down even more?? That could be a positive I think…and perhaps extending his career?
We are spoiled, but I also think having Rick Anderson is a big asset and we can groom a few of the younger guys into taking Nathan’s place (not this year) but certainly in the next year or two.. Korecky as you mentioned, also there’s the possibility that Humber or Mulvey get moved to the bullpen, or anyone of the countless pitching prospects we have (Perkins could be a Lefty closer!) I just think we have options that could make us “absorb” the loss of Nathan…
no no, 9th inning is not meaningless, I just think it’s very situational on where the game is at… the closer in the 9th always comes in w/ no one on, 3 outs to get, usually with a lead.. that’s a much more favorable situation then a lot of “middle-relievers” find themselves in… 5th inning, loaded bases, 1 out… but we could go all day with that, right? Because if you give up a grand slam, sure you might come back, but now you are climbing uphill…
Well, I know we both agree we can’t keep Nathan for 4 yrs and $45-60M, that’s insane… and I agree on keeping him until July when the market will be hot for “Closers”!
Any thoughts on the final few roster spots? as I think it’s a foregone conclusion we’ll be carrying 12 pitchers (of course w/ Livan Horrendous, do we really have 12?)
Good point about converting starters to relievers; we can’t have a 12 man rotation, after all. I think Humber is an excellent candidate to move to the late innings. Perkins … I don’t like him in the 9th inning. I think he could fill be a sort of long reliever … basically filling the space between Guerrier’s old role and Guerrier’s new role. Kind of an interesting spot to be.
Heh … I guess it’s tough to say how many pitchers we’ve got. If you go by talent, we’ve got 11.5 (Livan isn’t a whole one); but if you go by size, we’ve got 12.5 (Livan’s a big guy). Just depends on how you want to count it.
It’s looking to me like Buscher’s got the best shot of grabbing that last roster spot. He’s crushing the ball (in practice), he’s lifting weights and hitting with Morneau before dawn every morning, and Gardy has him working at 3rd, 2nd, and 1st. (I don’t like that last one, it seems to me Gardy’s just trying to cripple Buscher’s development as a hitter by jerking his chain around. See: Cuddyer, Kubel.)
And having Buscher already on the team hedges against the chance that Lamb turns out to be incapable of being a starter. We’ll see about that.
All valid points gentlemen. i’m sure you’ve all read Moneyball, but to reiterate 9th inning guys are a dime a dozen and GM’s continually overpay for them. Granted there are a few exceptions, but for a club built like ours and in the shape that we are in right now paying more than a mil for a 9th inning guy is too much.
As far as the point of outs are concerned I believe I read in Baseball Prospectus several years ago a study about how much weight each out of the game carries. Naturally all outs are important but the later you get into the game the more valuable those outs become (on both sides of the diamond).
As far as my spring training thoughts so far, since i’m already up on my soapbox anyways: I too would like to see Pridie get some more PT in CF as well as lead-off. I don’t understand why this isn’t his job to lose.
Sounds like Casilla is lighting it up. I’m not sure he has much left in AAA, although I’d rather see him at SS rather than 2nd.
I don’t like Brandon Harris, I don’t like his glove, his bat has underperformed and I really don’t like his politics. That being said the alternatives are Casilla (out of position) or Punto (shudder). At least Harris is smart!
I think I’m going to add Free Jason Kubel to my destroy Gardy platform.
Believe it!
Um, politics? I don’t know what Harris’s politics are, and I don’t care to know. I don’t know why sportswriters are going crazy about the fact that baseball players should care more about politics. Who cares? If you see someone who’s really good at rolling a burrito at Chipotle, do you care whom they’re voting for? Exactly.
Casilla has improved dramatically since we saw him last season. He may have been a little bit wowed by being in the majors; if so, that extended cup of coffee did him good. I’d been expecting that he’d spend most of this season in AAA anyway, improving his plate discipline and baserunning decision-making, with the expectation that he’d replace Everett at SS at the end of the year and be the SS in 2009. But with Harris struggling so badly, Casilla may have to play 2B this year. We’ll see.
If someone makes Free Jason Kubel t-shirts, I’ll buy one.
And I disagree with the contention that 9th inning guys are a dime a dozen. If that were the case, what are guys like Ryan Dempster and Joe Borowski doing in that role? Are Piniella and Wedge idiots? (I don’t think so.) I think it’s an issue of confidence. As in … do you feel confident with them on the mound, needing 3 outs to win the game for you. I feel confident with Nathan. I didn’t with Eddie Guardado. I wouldn’t with Borowski, Dempster, the aging Mariano Rivera. I don’t know if I would with Neshek or Korecky, because I haven’t seen them (both of whom were closers in the minors, so at least they’ve done it). And I don’t just throw my confidence around to 10 out of every 12 guys who can tie a pair of cleats.
(Oh, and no, I haven’t read Moneyball.)
The only politics as a baseball player I would concern myself is where can I hide my money so I dont get it stolen from me in the form of income tax, social security, and/or estate/property tax, but that’s for another day and another soap box!
Casilla has been good, but I think we keep him in AAA this year… my biggest thing is starting Gomez/Casilla and wasting them this season when we aren’t going to be IN any kind of race… we need to concede that fact already. I’m in on the Jason Kubel t-shirt as well!
Sirsean, back to the roster, I think Buscher is the guy as they are trying to make him so “versatile” in the field, again, dont really agree, but whatever… and I hope Pridie at least gets a shot on the bench so when (Denard Carlos Span Gomez) sucks it up, we can put in Pridie and not Monroe in CF (or Punto, ugh!)
Texas, I haven’t actually read Moneyball, but my friend is a HUGE A’s fan and loves Billy Bean and is a stat freak and basically our conversations consist of Twins/A’s baseball, managing (or mis-managing in our case) stats, Moneyball, the “closer” role, etc etc… so I feel like I’ve read it a dozen times – does that count? even a little?
Needless to say, this is much more involved and much more fun to discuss Twins baseball on this blog then the strib blogs…
I’m a bit more hopeful than that … I think it’s possible that the Twins can contend this year against the giants of the division. And I’d rather think about that possibility (and how it could happen) than to bemoan the “fact” that we suck. But that’s just me.
That said … I’m not sold that Pridie is the best option for CF right now. (Although he can’t really pretend to be the “leadoff hitter” Gardy wants, possibly forcing him to do something that’s actually unconventional and use Mauer in the leadoff spot.) My stance on that is that Gomez should start the year in AAA, and the starter in CF should be either Span or Pridie (assuming we don’t do anything smart like signing Lofton), whoever wins the position outright. I’d prefer that it’s Span.
Before you have to crap … let me explain. I don’t mind wasting Span in case he fails, but I feel like it’s about time he got a shot at seeing big league opposition. If he does well, we have a nice trading chip we can use at the deadline or after the season (whenever we want to make Gomez the guy). If he craps out, big deal.
And I think Pridie needs to be groomed to replace Monroe as the 4th OF. But really, we’re getting too far ahead of ourselves. The 2008 season starts in under three weeks … but it’s not yet time to talk about 2009!
And I’m glad you’re liking it more than the strib. I had to stop going there after a while. Just couldn’t take it any more.
Interesting thoughts! I highly recommend you guys reading Moneyball, great, pretty quick read.
I think confidence is something that is relative (while you feel confident with Nathan on the mound I have less confidence in him now). We’ll have to respectfully disagree on relievers. I actually prefer a committee (whomever is throwing the ball well) to close out games.
As a side note I don’t mean to imply that anybody who can throw a baseball can close out a game. Obviously there is something about the person (either a funky delivery, fast as hell, wicked cutter, something) that makes them unhittable for an extended period of time. What I am trying to say is that paying for that commodity is unacceptable for a low payroll ball club because any pitching heavy organization will have several people in the organization able to fill that role. In other words, buy low and sell high (which is what I think the Twins will do with Nathan this year)
I go back and forth on the CF issue. One thing I am certain of is that this is not going to be a year that we will be in serious contention and with the way we are setup I prefer not to lose a year of Gomez.
As far as Casilla is concerned I would actually like to see him up with the big club, but only if he is playing everyday. The way it looks, he won’t and therefore should be in AAA hopefully playing SS.
What about Watkins as the backup? He’s learning how to C, and we know how much Gardy loves third catchers.
As I see it 1B- Morneau 2B- Harris (assuming Gardy pulls his head out of his ass) SS- Everett 3B- Lamb LF- Young CF- Pridie or Span (but not both) RF- Cuddyer DH- Kubel C- Mauer C- Redmond OF/DH- Monroe IF- Punto IF- ???? Either Watkins or Buscher (leaning towards Buscher)
Sirsean-
I see your point on Span, however the kid has been nothing but a headache and done nothing to deserve a spot on the big league roster. Aside from hit some AAA pitchers well after multiple cracks at them.
They’ve stopped having Watkins learn to be a catcher, since it’s been wearing him out. I doubt he beats Buscher for the last spot.
If Span’s starting to hit AAA after seeing the pitchers multiple times … that’s a positive sign. It shows he can learn and adapt at the plate, which is a sign of a maturing hitter.
Is it a knock against Joe Mauer that he gets better against most pitchers after he’s seen them a few times? Or Barry Bonds? Or Alex Rodriguez? Or … any hitter in the majors? Of course not.
Other than the fact that we don’t have quite enough players (we could use an upgrade offensively up the middle), I don’t see why it’s a foregone conclusion that this lineup simply cannot contend:
Mauer Young Morneau Cuddyer Kubel Harris Lamb Span Everett
And yes, that’s my proposed batting order. The way I see it, OBP goes at the top, the best hitters are front-loaded (giving them 50-70 more ABs over the course of the season), the DelBat is between the M&M boys, and we have the LRLR thing all the way through.
Giving Mauer/Young/Morneau 50-70 more at bats per season each seems like it’d be worth more runs than sticking Span/Punto at the top of the lineup just so Gardy feels “conventional.”
I’ve read Moneyball and it is totally an AL book. I agree not to waste outs, so why is Punto even on our bench? I think moneyball is an extreme. A good point was made about Jeremy Brown retiring. He was a player who Beane was in love with, drafted in the first round only for OPB and it turns out he was a terrible player. So we need to look at more than OBP. Like get on base, but hit wel. OPS. So basically Nick Punto should be killed. So whoever defends his defense as making up for is inability to put the bat on the ball is dumb. Defense is important, but not important enough to disregard offense. You have to be in between hardcore stat people, and scout type people. Yes, closers are a bit overrated but we can’t trade the strongest part of a weak team. At least now. I do like Mauer batting leadoff, but I might swap Morneau and Cuddyer. However, at this point in time i don’t agree with gardy in terms of anything he has proposed either on the radio or in the paper.
Well Brown retired of his own volition. He hasn’t been the success story that he was made out to be in the book, but he wasn’t a complete failure either (at least when you consider that a good chunk of #1’s don’t see the major league level either).
I agree that this is an AL-only concept. I also am advocating waiting to get rid of Nathan until some closer goes down this year or at the deadline. You obviously don’t trade him now just for the sake of trading him. Especially if by some stroke of luck you find yourself contending at the All-Star break.
I don’t think Brown’s retirement is any kind of big deal at all. Most first round picks never make it in the big leagues. And something to remember about Moneyball is that it was written by a third party, and was never endorsed by Beane or the A’s. It’s not like they said “Brown will prove that we’re totally right about this!”
Also … if I were in Oakland I’d be pretty pissed off about that book. Beating the market and exploiting market deficiencies works best when you’re the only person doing it. After the book was released, there was basically know chance that Oakland’s “Moneyball” strategy would work any more. That market deficiency would quickly disappear.
Oh well.
Exactly, I think Billy Beane enjoyed the original back slapping he got, but as soon as people started reading the book they took offense to him using GM’s the way he did, oh well.
On a tangential note: It looks like Kyle Lohse signed with the Cardinals… one year 4.25 mil to be a sucky 3 or 4, awesome!
I think the problem Beane had with the book was that other GMs read it and started evaluating the same things he did. They may not make the same moves, but being able to apply similar analysis and make an informed decision about it makes a big difference (Beane couldn’t blindside people any more). I doubt he worried about GMs taking offense … he’s still very highly respected by other GMs.
I saw that bit about Lohse. I think that’s pretty good for the Cardinals. That seems like a considerably better signing than Livan (similar or better performance, less money). Not that I would have touched Lohse with a 10 foot clown pole.
found your site on del.icio.us today and really liked it.. i bookmarked it and will be back to check it out some more later ..