What Upgrades Does the Roster Need?
Souhan “writes” that the Twins’ front office should act now, as rashly as possible in an uncharacteristic fit of short term thinking, to bolster the surprisingly successful roster and make a run at the playoffs despite the fact that this is a rebuilding year.
The first thing I’d like to do is address the setup of his article. Number one, acting rashly is rarely a good idea; isn’t that a main criticism of the New York teams? Number two, surprising? Really? The Twins are 40-36, surging over .500 on the wings of a solid winning streak. They’ve been lurking within a few games of .500 all season. Before the season, they looked a lot like a .500 ballclub with a lot of youth. During the season, they look like a .500 ballclub with a lot of youth. What about this is surprising, exactly? Number three … what exactly can we do to upgrade at the trade deadline? Are there going to be teams unloading a good-hitting major league shortstop? Do we want to empty the entire farm system for the rights to 2 months of a good starting pitcher? What kind of deal is on the market that would clearly help the team this season, and hopefully not destroy our chances for the future? Can Souhan possibly know this?
That brings me to the second thing I’d like to do. Which is go over his recommendations to the Twins’ front office. His sure-fire plan for improving the team. The proven, veteran players that will push this team over the hump and assure a playoff berth. Enough hype, already, let’s get to the plan!
Step one: Somehow cancel the Rays trade, and get Garza and Bartlett back.
Reasons this is stupid: Um, you can’t do that. So … that’s pretty dumb.
Step two: Trade or release Mike Lamb.
Reasons this is stupid: Actually, it isn’t. Lamb should go.
Step three: Bench Delmon Young and call up Denard Span.
Reasons this is stupid: Delmon Young has a lot of talent, despite the fact that he’s not using it. He looks increasingly confused by breaking balls out of the strike zone, as if the pitchers should realize that he can’t hit them and should simply stop throwing them. He doesn’t hustle in the field at all. (Have you noticed that he’s about 100 times faster on the bases than in the field? Is his glove that heavy?) It appears that the only reason he’s willing to wear a glove is as an excuse to throw the ball as far as he can, regardless of game situation … or whether he even has the ball (see Sunday, vs Diamondbacks). The point is, Delmon has the tools and should be given the chance to hone them. Find the key to the toolbox, as it were. The other point is … Denard Span? Sure, he has a 900 OPS in AAA this year, and has recovered admirably from his injury. The game he plays on the field is finally starting to match the game he talks. But Span has never done anything good before, so why are a couple months so impressive? (Of course, it’s possible that he’s turned the corner, as Buscher seems to have done. Come back in a year, and if Span is still hitting like this then we’ve got another outfielder on our hands. If not, then it was a good thing we didn’t act rashly, no?)
I can’t help myself …
Seriously? Denard F’ing Span?
Step four: Get Nick Punto back and bench Brendan Harris at SS.
Reasons this is stupid: Nick Punto is not a starting position player, he’s a utility infielder. If he’s playing regularly, it means your starters are either hurt or not performing. Brendan Harris isn’t a wizard in the field (although neither is Punto, if you want to be honest about it), but he has a strong arm and can turn a double play (anyone who’s seen Punto try to throw the ball knows he’s more comfortable playing with the girls on the 60 foot basepaths). Harris has been mired in a bad stretch at the plate, but shows signs of knowing what he’s doing — and he might be turning it around. He’s clearly better than Nick Punto, though, who I’ve decided to describe offensively as “a lot like Mike Lamb, except with head first slides into first base.” (If Lamb ever slides into first base, I’m quite certain he will morph into Punto and the two of them will dance with glee as the space time continuum explodes.)
Step five: Have Brendan Harris be the utility infielder and part time third baseman, taking at bats away from Brian Buscher.
Reasons this is stupid: Harris should be the starting SS. But if he isn’t, deliberately taking at bats away from the hottest player on the team is pretty boneheaded. Maybe this step of the plan should be “stay the course and be happy that someone finally realized that calling up Buscher and sticking him in the lineup is a good idea.”
Step six … there is no step six. That’s it. This is what the front office should do to put the Twins into the playoffs. Mess with promising young bats (Young and Buscher) by jerking around their playing time. Promote inferior players based on having a hot bat in the minors. Give Nick Punto more playing time.
I’ll give Souhan credit for not saying something truly, monumentally boneheaded like “trade for Griffey” or “trade for Sabathia” or any other hugely overpriced Rent-A-Player. However, demanding that the front office make key moves and then pointing out a few places to clearly downgrade the team doesn’t make any sense — Souhan gets no credit for that. At best. Does negative credit exist?
I will also give Souhan absolutely zero credit for ignoring the pitching staff. Livan has pitched as expected, some of the young guys are stepping up, some are regressing, the bullpen is overtaxed, and we have far more young starters than a team can use. Do we trade some of them away for upgrades? Do we cycle them through the rotation and see who sticks? Do we transition some of them to the bullpen? Is it important to address the pitching situation at all when trying to shoot for the moon? Does Souhan care about pitching, given that it’s not something that Nick Punto “can” do?
Finally … I’ll end with a question. What does this team actually need? Right now, and in the next 2-3 years.
Third base? Maybe … but Buscher sure looks good and Valencia will be able to replace him in a few years. The fact that Buscher is 27 is virtually irrelevant because of Valencia — by the time Buscher hits 30, we just let him go and replace him with promising youngster No. 203995.
Shortstop? Yes. Harris is not the answer, nor is Nick Punto or Adam Everett. Casilla might be, but that leaves a gaping hole at 2B, and if Casilla gets comfortable at 2B he should stay there. This team needs a shortstop … too bad they’re hard to find. Plouffe is the closest thing to a SS in the system, and nobody is really sold on him, as far as I can tell.
Second base? No. Casilla. He’s good, end of story.
First base? Heh, no. Morneau is Hrbek.
Catcher? No. Enough said.
Center field? No. Gomez will be here for a while and will continue to improve. All Star in 2010.
Left field? Probably not, assuming Delmon remembers how to hit a baseball.
Right field? A big fat maybe … but not soon. Cuddyer’s 29, and will be 32 when his contract expires. I really like the guy, and I think he’s a solid player both offensively and defensively and is definitely a good clubhouse leader. But if we don’t want to re-sign him in 3 years, we should have guys knocking on the door, like Parmelee, Benson, Revere, possibly Hicks, possibly someone we don’t even know about yet (which is how baseball works a lot of the time). The point is that our outfield is locked down with good players long enough for the next batch to be ready. It doesn’t need an upgrade.
Bench? Monroe, Lamb, Punto, Redmond. Not really a bad bench. Redmond’s a good backup catcher, Punto’s valuable as a utility guy, Monroe and Lamb are theoretically good “bats off the bench” (if, that is, they decided to hit). This bench is a huge upgrade over years past (hmm, we need a late inning homer, who do we pinch hit … Tyner or Luis Rodriguez?). But it could always get better.
Pitching? You can always use more pitching, but … Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Duensing, Humber, Liriano, Boof, Mulvey, Swarzak, Manship, Guerra, etc. This team has solid pitching depth at the major league level and all the way down the farm system. Trading for more arms isn’t really necessary.
All that said, it would obviously be nice to upgrade to a better player at every position. Texeira over Morneau, Soto over Mauer, Utley over Casilla, Hanley over Harris, etc all down the lineup. But it’s not going to happen. What upgrades can this team realistically want to make?
I think this is a good roster, and the only real weak spot is at SS. Plus, the players should get better as the years go on, and we get closer to replacing them with cheaper, faster, more talented young players, as we always do.
The front office should not, as Souhan demands, think for the present and make ill-advised moves. They should also not, as Souhan suggests, give bad players playing time at the expense of good players. What they should do is always be on the lookout for a good deal, be ready to cut bait on someone before it’s too late, and tell Gardenhire to play the best players, for crap’s sake. (Kind of, you know, the opposite of what Souhan said.)
Go Twins.
13 Comments so far
Leave a reply
Can anyone explain to me why Nick Punto deserves to start time without using the following arguments:
-he tries hard (this isn’t little league)
-he plays the game “the right way” (because sliding headfirst into first base and hitting 210 is not the right way)
-he can play several poistions (this makes him useful as a bench player, who can step in and play when a guy needs a rest, not as a starter)
I’m going to pass on this one … I see Punto as a valuable bench player who should rarely, if ever, start a game.
I also think $2.5 million is a lot for a low/mid market team like the Twins to pay for such a player, which is why I see Punto’s value being completely replaced next season by Tolbert for $0.4 million.
That Gardy continues to find ways to play Punto, and goes out of his way to say things like “Punto will definitely be at the plate with the game on the line,” is a failure as a manager. (I continue to be amused by the fact that two days after Gardy said that, Punto was at the plate with the game on the line — we lost.)
I only bring it up because it seems that everytime any infielder makes and error, someone brings up the “Punto would have made that play” argument. Yes, he might have. However, he also probably would have flied out to shallow left with runners in scoring position and 1 out. From time to time I seek explanation on everyones infatuation with Nick Punto.
Also, it’s not exactly a sure thing that Punto would have made the play. He’s able to play all the positions. As in, can go stand there and kind of know what he’s doing. But he’s by no means good out there.
Every defensive metric pegs his range at below average, and his arm is bafflingly weak.
The only reason people think he’s good in the field is that he can’t hit. (The inverse relationship between hitting ability and perceived fielding ability.)
There is also the ignorance factor. A fan went to a game last year, saw Nick Punto make a play that looked difficult, and they peg him as the next fielding Jesus. (I’m assuming Jesus can field despite the fact he always wore sandals and robes.) Punto does make a great play every once in a while, but Lamb has made some nice plays at third as well, that doesn’t make him a good fielder. I do have a personal bias against the guy because he is, you know, bad at his job, but I wish people would realize that. This seems to be a common problem with Twins fans: the get an emotional attachment to a single player for some reason. This is a team sport, if there is someone who isn’t helping the team we can’t pay him lots of money just because fans can relate to him. I call it Doug syndrome. In general Twins fans don’t seem to be critical enough of the team. That is how teams improve, constructive criticism. Ron, if you are reading this, don’t start Punto, he won’t help the team.
Great point about Lamb making good plays and not being a good fielder because of it. Nobody seems to realize that, while Punto does make some good plays out there, he misses a lot of plays that other third basemen make. (Third basemen who also, you know, hit home runs.)
Dougie Syndrome. I like it. It’s immediately evident who it’s about, and its namesake is a great example of exactly that.
But while you’re right that Twins fans get attached to the players, I think it’s wrong to criticize that. Fans should get attached to players. And then feel like crap when those players fail to produce or leave via free agency or get traded to another team. And then attach themselves to the next guy on the team — it’s part of being a fan of a team.
That said, though, I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that wasn’t exactly your point. People are attached to Mauer and Morneau — good. People were attached to Hunter and Santana — that was painful. People are/were attached to Punto and Tyner and Mientkiewicz — that doesn’t mean those players should start, or even remain with the team.
People should attach themselves to good players who make the team better, and perhaps more importantly, Gardy shouldn’t give a hoot who the fans like — it’s his job to put the best team on the field. Nick Punto is not part of that.
yes, I should have clarified. Twins fans seem to get attached to bad/easily replaceable players. Dougie, Punto, Tyner, (eventually) Tolbert. I really like Mike Redmond as much as the next guy, but eventually we will have to get rid of him and go with a cheaper and younger backup catcher. I hope they keep him around for a while, and maybe transition him into a coach much like in the classic film Major League 2. I bet if the twins are forced to not bring Redmond back due to the fact that he will be old soon, and we can slide someone into his place, there will be some sort of unfounded outrage.
I pick the players I like based on on-field performance. I don’t care if he is a nice guy, or a hard worker. I like to think that Mauer and Morneau work hard, AND have ability.
Another thought I had the other day. Livan. We won’t trade him until we are out of contention is the vibe I’m getting. However, if we do fall out of contention, I bet it will have a lot to do with his inability to get people out. Funny how that works out.
Yes, Redmond should definitely become some sort of coach for us. And he’s indicated that he’d like that. I’m not really worried about him — I’m more worried about the guy we’ll have to replace him with. The catcher situation at the higher levels of our minor league system isn’t good (unless Jose Morales can somehow figure out how to stay healthy).
It might help the fans that Redmond wouldn’t be “let go,” and would remain in the organization. So perhaps there won’t be as much blind outrage in his case.
That’s true about Livan. He’s the guy I trust the least of all the starters. When it’s Baker or Perkins, I’m thinking “Okay, we’ve got a good game coming;” when it’s Blackburn or Slowey, I’m thinking “Hopefully they put together another good game;” when it’s Livan, I’m thinking “Boy, I hope we score 10 runs tonight.”
I wonder how much Liriano effects their plans for Livan. Obviously the organization isn’t going to talk about it, but Liriano has looked decent at AAA for the past several weeks. Definitely ready to out-perform Livan. If they feel Liriano is ready, they’ll deal Livan. If they feel like they want to wait until next season, maybe they won’t deal him.
That’s my take on that.
This is what worried me about Livan from the day we signed him. He would pitch lots of innings, bad innings, but lots of them. Can you imagine if he leads the AL in innings pitched, but also as one of the highest ERAs among AL starters? How does that help the team? Since they signed him to eat innings, we will do just that. Gardy has done a better job of pulling him than I thought he would. My nightmare was he was going to get 7ip no matter what, every start. 1 run, 2 runs, 9 runs or 10 runs: 7 innings. That hasn’t happened, but that doesn’t mean it can’t.
I agree with most of the points in this post. However, one thing - in regards to Span, you are saying that even though he is playing well right now, we shouldn’t conclude he’s ready since it is only two months worth of stats.
Couldn’t the same thing be said of Casilla? Sure, Casilla is playing well right now (and Span is doing it at AAA), but Casilla is definitely playing above what he’s shown in the minors up until now no?
Actually, I don’t agree that the Casilla and Span situations are comparable.
Last season was the outlier in Casilla’s minor league career. His OPS dropped 100 points from his two previous seasons as he adjusted to AAA pitching. He’s clearly playing out of his mind right now, but he’s been playing well and it doesn’t look “flukey” unless he loses his confidence or the game speeds back up for him. I expect him to regress a little, but remain at least average offensively for a second baseman.
This season is very clearly the outlier for Span’s minor league career. Only once has he broken a 700 OPS before (split between high-A and AA in 2005). His OPS is up 250 points over his last two seasons.
I think Span’s situation is more comparable to Buscher’s. It’s possible that Span has finally put some things together and turned a corner as a hitter. But a couple of good months is way too soon to make that decision. If he hits like this (or within 100 points of OPS of it) for the rest of the season and continues at the start of next season, then it was probably real and our current opinion of Span will have turned out to be incorrect. Otherwise, it was just a couple of good months. Not nearly enough to justify benching Delmon Young for.
In regards to Span, I was looking over his numbers for this season and trying to find something that explains this improbable run for him.
First, look at his month to month stats. In April he posted a hitting line of .286/.429/.286 in 28 AB. Hardly impressive at all. In May he got going to the tune of .342/.432/.539 in 76 AB, and got even hotter in June by hitting .378/.478/.565, but in only 38 AB as he missed time to injury. In May and June Span has hit .356/.444/.547 over a stretch of 115 AB, which is not even one-fourth of a season. As mentioned above, Span is hitting way above his career minor league OPS of .713, which even includes this season. And another split that stands out is his righty/lefty numbers. Against right handers this season he’s hitting an unbelievable .418/.525/.612 in 98 AB. Against lefties he’s hitting an abysmal .178/.245/.244 in 45 AB. That’s just alarming.
I see this as simply a hot run by a player who knows he’s out of options. His career numbers and his complete inability to hit left-handed pitching make Span no more than a fourth outfielder in the majors. I don’t think that will ever change.
Nice work looking more deeply into those stats. I had a feeling about the month-to-month stuff, but I was blindsided by those lefty/righty splits. That’s just terrible.
Our analysis is roughly the same … but if he HAS taken a big step forward (which we won’t know for 12 more months), a righty-mashing 4th OF has at least SOME value. (Especially when all 3 of our outfielders are right handed.)