Roster Moves and Road Trip
With Casilla due back later this week, Gardy will have some interesting decisions to make when constructing his lineups for the rest of the season. I’m assuming Casilla will become the everyday second baseman, and Gardy has said “Nicky will be in the mix at short”. Great, we will be rotating between Adam Everett and Nick Punto as our starting SS. That is just terrible. At least with Casilla coming back we won’t have a black hole in the number 2 spot anymore. It looks like Harris will be the odd man out, and only get playing time at third base against lefties. This makes Mike Lamb even more of the odd man out because he will probably never play.
In order to clear a spot for Casilla on the roster who will get sent down? My money is on Ruiz because I feel that Gardy uses “last in first out” logic when sending people down. Do we have any outfielders on the bench. Assuming Kubel is the DH, the answer is no. Will Nick Punto see time in the OF if one of Span-Gomez-Young gets hurt, ejected, (or killed, remember we are going to oakland)? Or will Gardy revert to his fear of losing the DH and keep Kubel on the bench to have a spare outfielder? I guess this is only a problem for a few weeks because rosters expand on Sept 1. However, playoff rosters are locked in on Aug 31 I believe. So if we make the playoffs (knock on wood) will we do it with only three oufielders, with the 4th being our starting DH? This all also assumes Cuddyer will not come back from his foot injury, or if he does he won’t be effective. If he does come back and is useful, there won’t be a real problem.
This road trip coming will really show if we are a real contender. If we play the LA like we did seattle, we will lose. We basically need our starters to go 7-8 innings because outside of Nathan, I don’t trust anyone in the bullpen. Is the front office going to try to get to the roster expansion date without making any moves (and by moves I mean call up Bobby Korecky)? I think that would be a mistake. I say when Casilla comes back, cut Bass loose and bring up Korecky. I don’t think there is anyway we don’t send down Ruiz to clear a spot for Casilla, I don’t agree with it but I’m sure that is the move they are going to make. I for one would like to get rid of Lamb, but the twins seem to live by the policy “If we are paying him, he stays on the team. Not matter how terrible he is”.
What moves does everyone think need to be made to sruvive the last month and a half of this season?
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I’d have Punto and Harris switch off at SS, and Harris and Buscher share third.
What about Everett, you say? Well, he had been DFA’d the day Casilla got hurt, and we somehow managed to un-DFA him to bring him back. He could be the odd man out again. Which would really improve the team.
I actually like Ruiz, even though it’s clear he’s not much of a player and won’t have much of a career. It’s easy to root for a guy who finally makes it to the pros after 10 years struggling in the minors. And having his bat on the bench is valuable … especially compared to Everett’s.
Cuddyer’s not coming back, so I think the moves that need to be made before 8/31 are replacing Bass with Korecky and Everett with Casilla.
Then on 9/1 we need to call up all the guns we’ve got from AAA to help the pitching staff, who continue to struggle mightily.
Ideally that is what will happen. However, I think Gardy would love to have a team composed entirely of middle infielders, and he is well on his way to doing so. I really can’t see them getting rid of Everett, the fact that he has played in something like 9 out of the last 10 games is a sign that he will probably be with us for the rest of the year. I’m guessing they will make a move wednesday night/thursday morning so we will find out then. The safe money is on Ruiz. I also like him, he is cheap, can hit some. Very useful as a bat off the bench, part time DH. If Everett starts at short, who is left to pinch it? Whoever isn’t playing third (Harris or Buscher) and Lamb. The only righty we would have is redmond (and Punto I guess) not exactly exciting options. Considering the bottom of our order will be Everett and Gomez, pinch hitters will be necessary in a close game. Could be frustrating next few weeks.
Yeah, being in first place is frustrating…
being in first place is awesome, but I get the feeling that this west coast road trip could be marred by too many Nick Punto at bats in a close game, or bullpen misuse or just plain failure. I guess those games we lost in seattle weren’t Gardy’s fault, it was just our pitchers not getting guys out. We can’t play like we did the last two games and expect to win often. Not sure how we gave up 8 runs to that seattle lineup. Its pretty terrible.
It’d be nice if Gardy could somehow light a fire under these guys and get them to pitch, but I don’t see what he can do. And the way they’re all throwing, there’s no such thing as “bullpen misuse.” None of them can get guys out — and using Nathan for 4 innings per day is not an option.
The frustrating part will be being tied for first today and being 2 games out in a couple of weeks after watching the bullpen continue to blow leads.
By the way, what are the odds that Guerrier’s career is just about done? His arm looks cooked.
Joe C has a nice piece about the bullpen today. I would really like to avoid having to move one of the starters from the rotation to the pen. While it might help in the short run, it would be bad in the long run. I also think Guerrier looks done. Outside of Korecky, who can help us from Rochester (or anywhere for that matter)
I’d say Humber and Duensing are the most likely to be able to contribute anything. And a big part of me doubts the Twins will want to waste an option year on those two guys on a September callup, since it’s not clear they’ll be ready for the majors for good within 2 years.
That said, Julio Depaula is probably the most likely to get called up. Think Brian Bass, but without the alliteration.
That doesn’t sound at all promising. Not at all.
This upcoming road trip is certainly pivotal. It almost puts the pressure on them to sweep Oakland. They almost have to at least go 7-7 on this trip. Not to be pessimistic, but I have a bad feeling that Anaheim is going to just pound us, especially if we’re pulling crap like we did against Seattle. That’s at home vs. a bad team. I can’t imagine what will happen on the road vs. a good team.
I have no answers for the pen, other than having the starters go 7 or 8 each game where Nathan is about the only guy with a chance to pitch, like you said. But I’d also really like to see them call up Korecky and kick Bass to the curb.
Do you think they might cut ties with Lamb at this point once Casilla returns? I think they may and then keep Ruiz up for a right-handed bat. Personally, I’d like to see this lineups going forward:
vs. RHP
RF Span
2B Casilla
C Mauer
1B Morneau
DH Kubel
LF Young
3B Buscher
SS Punto/Everett
CF Gomez
vs. LHP
CF Span
2B Casilla
C Mauer
1B Morneau
RF Kubel
LF Young
3B Harris
DH Ruiz
SS Everett/Punto
Here’s some research I decided to do after watching yesterday’s game:
Since entering the rotation on May 10, Glen Perkins has been mostly effective, going 10-3 with a 4.17 ERA in 19 starts. Basically he’s provided the Twins with a league average pitcher at the back of their rotation, which is great. But after watching yesterday’s game vs. Seattle, I thought, “Huh, he really seems to lose it in the 6th inning or later, like he hits a wall.” After some research it seems, yes, Perkins does hit some invisible wall after the 5th inning. In 23 2/3 innings after the 5th, Perkins has given up 33 hits with a 7.98 ERA. He’s gone into the 6th inning in 16 of his 19 starts, but he’s allowed at least one run 10 different times in those instances. Even removing his two starts vs. Seattle in which he allowed 8 ER in 2 1/3 innings after the 5th, he’s still posted a 5.48 ERA in those situations. Counter that with innings 1-5 in which Perkins has a 3.19 ERA in 93 innings.
Looking even closer, it seem to be more about Perkins’ pitch count than what inning he’s pitching in. From pitches 1-75, Perkins has a 3.52 ERA in 97 innings and has allowed opponents to hit .296/.332/.432 with 8 home runs. But from pitches 76-100, Perkins has an ERA of 7.32 and has allowed a hitting line of .293/.366/.622 in 19 2/3 innings while surrendering the same amount of home run, 8, in 77 1/3 less innings. Perkins clearly struggles in the later innings when his pitch count is between 76 and 100, something that could be attributed to a lack of conditioning and the fact that Perkins only pitched 19 1/3 innings last season because of injury. Perkins threw 121 innings in 2006 and 134 in 2005, his most since joining the Twins’ organization in 2004. Perkins has now thrown exactly 150 innings between AAA and the majors this season, so it will be interesting to see how his arm holds up down the stretch, especially in the late innings. This is something the Twins should be monitoring, and they need to have Perkins on a short leash. Once he hits the 75-pitch mark, he should be lifted upon allowing any baserunners. In a pennant race where every run counts and every mistake is compounded, the Twins can’t afford to gamble, especially in the latter innings.
Thanks for the numbers, that’s pretty interesting.
It probably does have something to do with conditioning and returning from the injury — but at the same time Perkins just has to be stretched out. Pitch 1-75 demonstrates that Perkins is a good pitcher; if he can just stay strong through 100 pitches he’ll be a whole lot more than an average pitcher.
Javier Vazquez of the White Sox used to have a very similar problem — he was lights out for the first 5 innings, then blow up and give up 5 runs. He stretched himself out and doesn’t have the same trouble any more.
I expect the same out of Perkins — probably next year. But that’s only if we let him keep trying to work out of trouble in the 6th and 7th, which is where he needs the most practice.
Obviously that’s the problem with trying to compete in a pennant race AND develop 20 young players at the same time. Sacrifices have to be made, and the Twins organization always takes the longer view — and sacrifices the short term to benefit the long term. Fans may hate that, but the Twins have been doing a great job of staying competitive this decade by always favoring long-term decisions.
That’s why I expect Perkins to continue to get work in and NOT be pulled at the first sign of danger after the 5th inning. (Also, we need him to do it, we can’t afford to put the bullpen into games that early, with the way they’ve been going.)
Hey, I think the issue of having the playoff roster set on Aug 31 is actually that the playoff roster must be made up of players on the 40-man as of Aug 31. Does that sound right?
If that’s the case, then it’s not totally necessary to have the exact right mix at the ML-level so long as the elements are on the 40-man.
Alas, no, that’s not how it works.
“Players must be on a team’s 25-man roster as of August 31 to be eligible for post-season play. The only exception is that a player on the 60-day disabled list may be replaced by another player from the team’s 40-man roster (as of August 31) who plays the same position.” (Wikipedia)
We hopefully won’t have to put anyone on the 60 day DL in September … so the 25 man roster on 8/31 is the one we’re (hopefully) going to the playoffs with.
That’s why it’s critical that Korecky replaces Bass by then.