Fire Gardy

The firegardy.com preseason predictions can be found here. 

 Now that the regular season is (finally) over, here’s our preview of the divisional series. We were going to do a preview of the entire playoffs, but it turns out that we here at Fire Gardy have different opinions on some of the matchups … and trying to predict the winner of the LCS and World Series doesn’t really work when you can’t agree on who’s even playing. So stay tuned for more contradicting predictions later on throughout October.

American League

ALDS: Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels

sirsean:

The Angels finished the season with the best record in baseball, the only 100 win team, having coasted for the last couple months of the season due to their presence on the West Coast, where baseball teams go to suck. (Apparently.) This is a good, solid team with an excellent rotation, the single season saves champion, and an impressive middle of the lineup. They traded for Mark Texeira for exactly this series — they needed pop to combat the Red Sox in the postseason.

And they’re facing the Red Sox right away, of course. Even without Josh Beckett (possibly), the Red Sox have a formidable rotation — and Beckett hasn’t pitched well this season anyway, given that it’s his bi-annual down year. And without the powerful presence of Manny Ramirez, the lineup actually scored more runs than it did with him; that can’t fill the Angels with confidence, even though every one of their pitchers would rather face Jason Bay than Manny.

FunBobby:

The Angels grabbed first in the AL West and never really looked back. Seattle was supposed to give them a run for their money, instead the Mariners just ran away with the fans’. Even though LAA was in first by double digits at the trade deadline they decided to go out and get Mark Texeria to help them in the postseason. The Angels have a strong starting staff, anchored by John Lackey, and followed by Ervin Santana, Jared Weaver, and Joe Saunders. Their bullpen is anchored by K-Rod, but they have a few decent setup men as well. Jose Arredondo stands out from this group. He is a 24 year old future closer (sound familiar to where K-Rod was in 2002?) who has 55 strikeouts in 61ip with a 1.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He vultured 10 wins out of the bullpen, and had 16 holds. He should be able to keep the Red Sox in check for the last inning or two before K-Rod comes in to slam the door.

I just really don’t like the Red Sox. Only being able to start Beckett once really hurts them, but Jon Lester and Dice-K aren’t terrible starters for games one and two. I’m guessing they will either use Tim Wakefield or the game one starter on short rest for game four.

It sounds like the Red Sox will be able to get at least some at bats out of Mike Lowell and JD Drew. This really helps then, I don’t know if Francona plans on starting them both, or using them off the bench at first and then starting them in games two and three.

sirsean’s take: In this matchup of AL titans, I think the Red Sox will take the series in five games. Never underestimate the team that miraculously wins in the postseason just when the cable channels realize they need the ratings boost.

FunBobby’s take: I like the Angels, mainly because they will only have to face Beckett once. Dice-K walks guys and the Angels can do damage on the basepaths. They are one of the most complete teams the AL has seen in a while. LAA in five.

ALDS: Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays

FunBobby:

The Rays, who actually play in St. Petes, rode a young starting rotation and core of position players to their first playoff appearance ever. They beat the Red Sox down the stretch for the division title. Their rotation consists of James Shields (the projected game 1 starter), Scott Kazmir (last years strikeout champ), Matt Garza, along with “youngsters” Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson. Their lineup also has some great young players. The elder statesman of the group is Carl Crawford, who was hurt for the stretch run but has been activated. Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria are their two homerun threats, with Donnier Navarro and Rocco Baldelli also able to crank one out now and again. David Price gives Joe Maddon a valuable arm out of the bullpen to bolster his already strong relief corps.

Not sure how this young team will handle the pressures of October baseball. The one player who comes to mind as having playoff experience is Cliff Floyd, and he is a bench player at this point. Jason Barlett played in the playoffs with the Twins in 2006, but most of their “core players” have played no meaningful games in August, let alone October. I like how they played down the stretch to hold off a very good Red Sox team, they really showed their mettle.

The White Sox won the division in game 163 in a game that should have been played at the Metrodome. All bitterness aside I do not like their chances. They have been using a four man rotation for what seems like weeks, and they have a phobia of domes. I think the Rays talented young pitchers will be able to hold the White Sox aging sluggers at bay for a five game series and take it.

sirsean:

The Rays are obviously the best story in baseball this season, the quintessential “worst to first” story that’s truly American, the story of the 1991 World Series. I was a year early on this team — I thought they’d be good last year — but in the end it was the Twins front office that pushed the Rays over the edge by sending them Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to shore up the weaknesses on their team without taking anything they truly valued in return. The cores of both their rotation and lineup are both young and talented, setting this team up to be a force to be reckoned with in the years to come; that said, their bullpen and defense have both overachieved this season, and I’d expect them to regress next season. So that leaves this year as their window, and they sure look poised to take advantage.

On the other hand, the White Sox barely narrowly defeated the Twins in the Central, mostly because they didn’t-want it just a little less than the Twins. The tiebreaker was something of a misnomer; instead, it was a coinflip and a heartbreaker. But power keeps you in every game, as the Sox showed in their last few games by winning with homers. Of course, this team lives and dies by the home run, and the Rays have solid pitching that may be able to hold them in the park. Alexei Ramirez, the Cuban Missile, is probably second behind Evan Longoria for rookie of the year. Thome, Griffey, Dye, and Konerko are imposing sluggers in the middle of the lineup. AJ plays dirtier than anyone, and plays the kind of headgames that create victories from thin air. It’s impossible to dismiss these White Sox, no matter how bad they’ve looked over the past few weeks. Don’t forget 2005.

sirsean’s take: With the Twins out, I have to go to my second team, and that’s the Rays. Youth wins in four games.

FunBobby’s take: Rays in four, I hope one of the games is close enough to give Hawk a heart attack.

National League

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs

sirsean:

Tuesday, in downtown Chicago, the city threw a parade for the Cubs making the playoffs, celebrating wildly. Meanwhile, the White Sox were preparing for a game starting in mere hours that could send them to the playoffs — and downtown paid no heed while the local media grumbled about how they’d better not lose this thing. How can the Cubs be congratulated so passionately for simply making the playoffs, while at the same time the White Sox are simply required to make it? I predict bad things for the Cubs due to this premature celebration.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have Manny Ramirez on their team, and I seem to recall that Joe Torre had some success in the past in the playoffs when he had talented young position players complemented by slugging veterans — as opposed to the failure he experienced in the playoffs when he had a team consisting of expensive slugging veterans complemented by expensive mediocre veterans. Plus, Manny doesn’t have a contract, and Boras wants to make money — so Manny will hit and hit and hit. Be prepared for Wrigley to yield several Manny-bombs in this series.

FunBobby:

The Cubs have a very well balanced team. Good starters with Dempster-Zambrano-Harden-Lilly, and the duo of Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood out of the bullpen can really lock opponents down at the end of a game. Jeff Smardijizia has stepped up as a good reliever to take the stress off of the aforementioned duo.

The lineup is solid from top to bottom, with Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and Soto doing the heavy lifting. Lee and Soriano have a good amount of playoff experience, and I think Lou Pinella will do a very good job of making sure the young guys (and guys who have never been there) will keep focused.

The Dodgers rotation doesn’t impress me very much. Derek Lowe is slated to start game one, followed by Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda. Greg Maddux or Derek Lowe on three days rest will pitch game four if necessary.

Manny is great, but outside of him I don’t think the Cubs will have too many issues. Russell Martin is a solid player who I like a lot, and their group of young outfielders is impressive, but not sure how they will handle the pressure and the excellent pitching the Cubs will be trotting out there inning after inning. I think Joe Torre can win them one game.

sirsean’s take: Dodgers in five.

FunBobby’s take: Cubs in four. The Dodgers get one in LA.

NLDS: Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies

sirsean:

It took more good work by the Mets this season to allow this matchup to happen. Their lead this year was only 6.5 games with 17 to play (as opposed to 7 games last year), but this time around they managed to collapse just enough to let two teams pass them. No thanks to Johan Santana, who did not contribute to the team’s collapse, throwing a shutout on the second to last day of the season, on short rest, after throwing a career high 125 pitches in his last start. Johan Santana is not a team player. (Where team == Mets.)

CC Sabathia, however, is a team player, and he carried the Brewers to the playoffs on his hefty shoulders. Pitching on short rest three times in a row to ensure a playoff spot is the stuff legends are made of, and CC is doing it. Former manager Ned Yost took a lot of heat for the way he rode CC, and interim replacement Dale Sveum hasn’t changed a thing. The Brewers back Sabathia up with a powerful young lineup featuring Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder; expect them to score runs against the Phillies.

Speaking of the Phillies, they’re no slouches either when it comes to scoring runs, especially when Ryan Howard realizes that it’s late in the season, which means “MVP Time” in his Subway-sandwich-selling world. With a lineup featuring Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Pat the Bat Burrell, Howard and company expect to score; and they need to given that their pitching staff could generously be described as “leaky.”

FunBobby:

I don’t really know much about these two teams, other than Ryan Howard reminds me of Happy Gillmore when he is in those Subway ads. Both have offenses that can score runs (they both seem to be built more like an AL team than the Twins). CC is starting game two for the Brew Crew, so he might be able to pitch twice. No Ben Sheets is a real blow to the Beermakers, so the rest of their rotation will consist of Dave Bush, Yovani Gallardo (who missed most of the season), Manny Parra (who Prince tried to beat up), and Jeff Suppan. Gallardo is set for game one, followed by CC, then its up in the air. The Phillies counter with Cole Hamels-Brett Myers-and the ageless Jamie Moyer. I’ll have to give the edge to the Brewers here, only because of CC. He seems to be an unstoppable force right now.

The Phillies have the far superior bullpen. They have the second lowest bullpen ERA in the NL. Brad Lidge will get a few Cy Young votes, and to get our former Twins fix, JC Romero is one of their lefties. I’m not sure how they plan on using Joe Blanton-as a starter or a reliever. i agree with sirsean, the Phillies have a questionable rotation at best, but their bullpen should be able to get them out of some jams.

sirsean’s take: I can’t go against the magic of CC, even though he’s only pitching one game in this series (probably … but don’t count him out). I’m going with the Brewers in four games.

FunBobby’s take: I’m going Brewers in five. That is more of a guess than anything.

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