Much ado about pitching, and other Thursday morning musings
Well, CC Sabbathia and K-Rod (quite possibly the worst nickname ever) are off the books. Both are headed to NYC for mega-bucks. The Mets also swung a three team trade last night to get JJ Putz, another closer, to bolster their bullpen. It looks as though Minaya is trying to go from worst bullpen in the league to best by throwing money (and prospects) at the problem. We’ll see if it works. Rodriguez has to be close to breaking down, at the very least he is due for a DL stint. Maybe that is why the traded for Putz, insurance. He is only one year removed from an all-star appearance and 40 saves. Not a bad setup man to have.
Now that I have gone one paragraph without mentioning the Twins for the first time in my life, lets talk about the hometown team. It seems as though every potential trade partner wants Kevin Slowey, and understandably so. My question is, aren’t we just one year removed from Nick Blackburn being named the number one prospect in one of the most pitching rich farm systems in the AL? He put together a decent, at worst, major league season and now people are sour on him? I know that Slowey is better, but what is wrong with Blackburn? He is older, so maybe GMs think he has peaked and there is no potential left? I guess that is fair. I suppose I’m just frustrated that in order to get a potentially decent (or just as likely bad) position player (Kouzmanoff, Atkins, Beltre) you need to give up a potentially great (or at worst league average) starting pitcher. League average starting pitching might be one of the most valuable commodities in the game. Look at how much guys like Silva, Lohse, and Jeff Suppan make. I get that prospects are worth more than money, but these players we are talking about aren’t prospects. If a league average pitcher is worth 12mil/year (Silva), hey Padres, why not trade for a 12mil/year pitcher who actually costs you close to league minimum and you give us Kevin Kouzmanoff, who you won’t be able to afford in a few years because your owner got divorced and is broke. Obviously, I’m biased.
Has anyone else noticed that if a random team like the Nationals wanted to get a player similar to Kouzmanoff, they would have to give up next to nothing (literally, probably a PTBNL), while the Twins have to give up a Major League starter. It happened with Delmon Young, the Nats got Dukes for literally nothing, while we gave up Matt Garza plus our starting SS. Is this all the GMs taking advantage of us now that the big, bad bully Terry Ryan is gone? Or is Bill Smith just a bad GM?
This next issue touches on some of what we covered yesterday, sort of. Does anyone else think it might be time to infuse some new blood into the front office. Everyone up there has been with the Twins since the start of their career and they seem to have adopted a group think mentality. They don’t know how to run a baseball team any differently than “stay away from power hitters” and all the other organizational philosophies that we have discussed. I’m not saying “fire Bill Smith, and hire some hall of fame GM from a different organization” but maybe lets add some new (possibly stat oriented guys to mix things up) people at the assistant GM level. Its basic principles of management that group think can be very dangerous for an organization. Lets mix things up, why get complacent? Why not find new, creative ways to improve on our already semi-successful formula. A move like this is by no means drastic, nor will it change things really quickly, but I think its best for an organization that is in need of some change.
27 comments27 Comments so far
Leave a reply
The word that always comes to mind when talking about the Twins FO or management is “stubbornness”… And I agree, with these “lifers” in the FO, it has become a group think mentality which on one side (the draft, pitching, defense, minor league system) the way they do things I can’t complain too much about that since we have a very good system in place there – I do wish they would spend a tad more on drafted players which would allow us to get the higher projected prospects, but that’s another thing… As far as at the major league level, It would be nice to see a change in some of the old Tom Kelly philosophy, defense/pitching still important but you do need an offense in the Majors… and then looking at FA signings and trades, there have been good and bad ones (I think Smith was wanting to give us what we’ve been waiting for, a big bat, in the Young deal… not sure if it was the Rays taking advantage or not…) However, I did like not signing Hunter, too expensive and those things would kill teams like the Twins, making it impossible to draft younger players and sign guys like Mauer/Morneau and eventually Slowey/Baker/Liriano to contracts for their prime years.. Santana, we could argue all day on that one, but bottom line is I like the offer we gave him and not knowing the details of everything, I personally would have tried to keep him, but giving any pitcher 6-7 years guaranteed is insane… I would like to see a younger “statistically oriented” FO guy come in and give a different perspective on things, I know other teams (A’s for instance) look at stats a lot more which is more from their GM than anything else, but it’s something teams like the Twins should consider… the question is, who the hell tells the FO they need to do this?? And will they listen?
The ridiculous trade demands started before Terry Ryan left. I think they might have been part of his reason for leaving. He liked making trades, but teams started demanding Garza+Baker+Slowey for every throwaway piece of crap on their roster, and when Ryan said “No, how about we give you less than than?” the teams turned around and traded the guy for a PTBNL to someone else. Since the AJ Heist, teams mistakenly thing we’re trying to rob them, and the only way to avoid that is to demand all our player in every trade. (I wonder if the Yankees have trouble making trades. “I’ll give you these prospects for that reliever.” “I have a better idea. Give me A-Rod and pay his salary! I’m paid a million dollars a year for this!” No, it’s probably just the Twins.)
I think the front office definitely needs some new blood. They’re so proud of the fact that people rise from within, and that everyone with any authority in the organization started out in the mail room in 1912. But the problem is that many of them probably never should have left the mail room, but there are only so many people you can promote from within — it seems to me that it’s artificially limiting the intellectual diversity of the organization. The Twins need to be infused with new people and new ideas; it seems like way too many of the guys in charge haven’t realized that it’s not 1982 any more. Our team is still built to win the World Series in the 80s, without realizing that the game constantly changes.
Oh, and Slowey is WAY too good to trade him for one of these crappy third basemen we’ll have for one year. If we’re losing Slowey, we should be getting Longoria. (Evan or Eva, it doesn’t matter, as long as it’s one of them.) Short of that, Slowey stays here and is our Bradke-Ace for the next 15 years, at the end of which we apologize for our location, since he’d be a lot more famous and popular (and wealthy) if he played in a state that is able to market the fact that it actually has buildings and money. (It’s amazing what people think of Minnesota, even in Chicago.)
Stubbornness is a good word. While I don’t advocate changing the philosophy, we should ammend it. We really are stuck in some year that is before the one in which I was born. The A’s are one extreme in terms of SABR, and we are the other. Baseball is about balance. Even in 1991 we got a high priced free agent (Chilli Davis) to round out our homegrown team. In 1987 I believe we swung a trade for Don Baylor. What do those years have in common? Oh yeah, World Series.
Slowey = Awesome. Yeah, why are we even hearing his name come up, Billy Smith should be saying from the start, “uh yeah, Slowey is a NO, you can ask for someone else, but I’ll probably say no as well unless they are still in AA ball…” Why AREN’T we dangling our AA prospects out there? or some of the older AAA players? we still have a good crop down there… but you are right, it just seems teams ask for the “Moon and Stars” when wanting to deal with the Twins and when we say no, they turn around and practically give away the guy to someone else for pennies… And I’m gonna go nuts the next time someone mentions trading Buscher/Cuddyer/Bonser/Perkins/Tolbert/Humber to the Padres/Mariners/Rockies for Kouzmanoff/Beltre/Atkins…
are you serious?
yeah, A’s are extreme, my friend is a HUGE A’s fan and obviously a “stat” guy too, but for the most part, he’s right about a lot of things… same with Gleeman, it’s just some “fans” dont want to hear it… it’s still all about flashy defense and RBI to them… oh and how many WINS a pitcher got.
Anyways, I would have liked to explore getting Furcal to play SS, however, at this point, I dont see us doing a whole lot other than maybe signing a bullpen guy… which I’d be OK with… it’d be nice to get a decent 3B w/ power, but not when they want what they are asking for, then I dont want one… In the end, I can see us resigning Punto (dont agree) and getting a middle relief guy… and then we role with that. thoughts?
I’d rather make no moves, than make the wrong moves. If we can count on improvements from Young and Gomez, only slight regressions from Span and Casilla, we should be OK. We have a lot of solutions in house. Give Kubel more at bats, let him and Young hit for power, use Punto as a utility player ONLY. I think keeping Bonser is a good idea unless we get something great for him. He showed flashes of being a good relief option last season, and maybe he has adjusted to that role and will impress us. I get the feeling DY will lose lots of ABs this year if he starts slowly like he did last year. Which is unfortunate. We need to move Cuddyer, maybe he will have a nice first half and we can trade him for something to help us down the stretch. He has a special place alongside Joe Mays, having one good year and being rewarded with a big contract.
I see us re-signing Punto and MAYBE adding relief help, but probably not.
I think the team is happy to go into 2009 with what they had in 2008, minus some left-side dead weight.
And I don’t think that’s that wrong. Everyone wants a big splash, but when the cost is so high in dollars and talent for ridiculously minor improvements, it’s better not to do it. After all, our players will be a year older … and when they’re all under 25, that’s a good thing.
No moves would be fine by me, as long as Gardy uses the pieces we have correctly. Which he hasn’t in the past. Kubel should get all the ABs at DH against righties, and most against lefties. A Buscher/Harris platoon, when done correctly, will be just as good as Casey Blake, if not better. This has been said numerous times, but don’t make our hitters into something they are not. Let Kubel and Young swing away, let them pull the ball. Not just slap singles to the opposite field. Its frustrating to watch such talented hitters be handcuffed like that. Someone should arrest Gardy for holding the talents of Young and Kubel against their will.
Sidenote: I hope the nats get Texiera. That would be awesome.
Exactly, I’m glad 2 out of 1million fans agree with me… I am not alone!
Yeah, the other thing is this assertion that we have an overcrowded outfield? Since when is 5 people too much for 4 spots (including DH) You know someone is going down with an injury, especially with Gomez and Span running into each other, not to mention the wall in RF! “Look out Span, geesh!” Then you have Kubel, despite what people think, is your perfect fit for RF, Span can play all 3 spots, etc etc… Seems fine with me to start the year with all 5 guys… Again, it’s the stubbornness that worries me, because it will be assumed that Cuddyer (because of the contract/age, what have you) automatically gets a starting job in RF. Why? Have them earn it in ST, why is Gomez your starting CF? Earn it… Why is this so hard!?
OF Depth (good thing) Young, Gomez, Span, Cuddyer, Kubel
DH options (good thing) Kubel, Cuddyer, Buscher, Morneau, Mauer, Young
Infielders (can play multiple spots – good thing) Casilla, Harris, Buscher, Tolbert, Tolleson? and perhaps Punto…
Catchers (best tandem in MLB) Mauer, Redmond
Pitchers (A strong starting 5) Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins
Bullpen (many options) Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, Mijares, Breslow, Humber, Bonser, Mulvey?
Minus Nathan, Cuddyer, and Redmond, I think the oldest guys are Buscher and Harris at 28… I’m gonna look that up now…
Just looked at our active roster and I forgot a few guys that could be in the bullpen… Mulvey wasn’t on the active roster, but Korecky was… I also forgot about Matt Macri… there’s another 3B/2B guy…
Here’s our roster, ages either for the season or when they turn during the season (example if player turns 27 in May 2009, I put 27 for his age already)
Kubel 27 5/25 Young 23 9/14 Span 25 2/27 Gomez 23 12/4 Cuddyer 30 3/27 Buscher 29 4/18 Casilla 24 7/20 Harris 28 8/26 Macri 27 5/29 Morneau 28 5/15 Tolbert 27 5/4 Mauer 26 4/19 Redmond 38 5/5
Nathan 34 11/22 Korecky 29 9/16 Guerrier 30 8/2 Breslow 28 8/8 Bonser 27 10/14 Baker 27 9/19 Blackie 27 2/24 Crain 27 7/5 Humber 26 12/21 Liriano 25 10/26 Perkins 26 3/2 Slowey 25 5/4 Neshek 28 9/4 Mijares 24 10/29 Swarzak 23 9/10 Duensing 26 2/22
Median age of Position Players (take out highest age and lowest age) = 26.73
Median age of Pitchers = 26.79
pretty much 26/27 for all of our players, not bad at all… I know we have one of the younger teams (Rays, Marlins) Which is a good thing…
And we still have guys like Luke Huges 24, Trevor Plouffe 22, Steve Tolleson 25, and Jason Pridie 25 in the minors who are ready to contribute now or in 2010…
I totally agree that Blackburn has been dismissed too readily as a trade piece- he should be worth more. Yeah, he struggled later in the year, but A. He was a rookie, B. the umps didn’t give him any help with the strike zone at all, and C. That last game in Chicago showed his mental toughness.
I’m in the “stay put and use the pieces you have” camp. A full season with a rotation of Slowey, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, and Perkins (substituting one of the AAA guys if someone regresses) could be very exciting.
And Texeiria to the Nats or Orioles would be awesome.
I like Tex going to the NL, that would be nice… but the contracts being reported for this guy are nuts… 8 yrs $160M is crazy, he’s good, but he’s not Manny Ramirez/Albert Pujols… I mean, come on right? and he’s already 29… that’s signing him until he’s 38!!
Some of this stuff I just can’t fathom why Teams exhaust themselves on these contracts… which is one thing I’m glad we dont do, we can be called cheap, but most of the time it’s the right thing to do…
Sidenote: we took 2 pitchers in the Rule 5 draft, Jason Jones from the Yankees and Henry Arias (Arizona)… gotta love us stock piling more pitchers!
Tex is a switch hitter with power who plays gold glove defense. Signing him until he is 38 isn’t a huge deal, since at worst he will still be a productive hitter, as I’ve said before you can hide bad defense. Hard to believe Tex was taken in the same draft as Mauer and already going onto his fourth team (assuming he doesn’t go back to LA)
That jones guy seemed to have good basic numbers (wins and ERA) haven’t had a chance to delve any deeper.
On one hand, I would like to see Tex go to a small-market team, even if he does get a crazy contract, just to stick it to Boston, NY, and LA. But then, I wonder if the team that signs him will end up like the Reds with Ken Griffey Jr. It’s a chance I think the Nats could definitely take, since they don’t have any actual MLB stars. Tex could draw quite a crowd of fans hungry for a great player.
I really don’t like how “small-market” has come to mean “small-payroll”, it really refers to media market, and the DC area media market is quite robust. They have two NFL teams, two MLB teams, an NHL and NBA team. I would argue that the DC-area media market, even if you want to exclude Baltimore as part of it, is just as big as Boston. It just so happens that their teams are bad. The Twins Cities are a pretty decent sized market, we are able to be one of the few markets that can support one of every major sport (MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, plus major college sports). But that is neither here nor there.
Going back to the twins, does everyone think that we must make a move today during the meetings in order to pull it off? I think we still have some time, especially since the Peavy trade has yet to be completed.
TradeRumors just posted that the Cubs withdrew on the Peavy deal… so I think there’s plenty of time to get something done, even after today…
Well, our friend Punto is back. at the tune of 2 years, 8 mil with an option for a third year
Yippee! I think i called that about 5 days ago… and I knew we’d give him $4M a year, absolutely unreal… I guess Gardy has more pull than we realize.
It said he talked to 16 teams and had serious offers from at least 4 (yeah right, does anyone believe that?) Certainly didn’t make a blip on the rumor reports… and then signs with the Twins because he’s comfortable? or just know that Gardy will start him no matter what…
This is getting old… Nevermind we have Harris, Tolbert, Macri and even Casilla for a combined $3-4M over the next 2 years…
I think I mentioned this before, but last year Gardy said something along the lines of “Nick Punto is my starting secondbaseman for 2008″, then Nick Punto slid into first base (or something equally dumb) and was out for a while and Casilla took the job and never gave it back. I bet the same thing happens this year. Although I don’t have the foggiest who can step in and contribute at short.
I’d take Harris and Tolbert at SS any day than paying $4M for Nick Punto… or move Casilla back to short where he belongs, Tolbert at 2B and move on… put the money in your pocket or give it to Mauer.
Ridiculous, the infatuation of Gardy with this guy is so much more apparent it’s sickening.
I’m with FunBobby. Punto won’t last the season at short.
There’s nothing wrong with paying Punto $4M. That’s the going rate for a good utility infielder, which is exactly what Punto is. I’m just glad they’re not paying him like a starter, which is what he said he wanted.
The dollars are not a problem, and having Punto on the team is a good thing. The only bad thing is playing time — his value lies in his availability on the bench, not in his daily on-the-field contributions.
I’m sure he’ll start the season at SS, break his collar bone diving excitedly into the dugout sometime in early June, and someone (Plouffe?) will come up from the minors and emerge as a quality player, a la Span/Casilla/Bartlett/everyone-else-on-the-team. And I don’t have a problem with that.
Me neither- and who knows if Casilla and Tolbert will regress? If Gardy can plug Punto in all over the infield when needed, that’s a good thing. I wish LNP would stop overreacting to strikeouts, though. I hate it when Youkilis does that, and I don’t want Twins players to do it, either.
I just hate Youkilis in general. In fact, I hate every Red Sox player.
Kevin Youkilis is The Biggest Douchebag In Sports.
I dislike everything about him except his impressive beard. No self respecting baseball player (or human) should emulate any of Youkilis’s behavior.
That said, I don’t think that’s what Punto’s doing. He’s reacting adversely to strike outs in order to create an illusion that they’re unusual and that he is not, in fact, a crappy hitter. (It’s not working.)