Bargain Hunting
Maybe Bill Smith hasn’t been sitting on his hands all offseason. Maybe he has just been waiting for prices on everything to drop. For a lot of free agents this offseason, its been a staring contest between teams and players, waiting to see who blinks first. Outside of the Yankees, most teams have been good about not caving to initial demands. Scott Boras looks like an idiot now after telling all of his clients to decline arbitration. Some say the Union suggested big name players do this as well. The players who are in the most trouble are the ones who cost a draft pick. Juan Cruz is a name that stands out to me. He was pretty good last year, but doesn’t have that much of a track record. So why should a team pay him a ton of money, and give up draft picks? He could end up on a bad team whose picks are protected, but those are the teams who won’t give him a big contract. A catch-22 really. I could totally be misusing that phrase, but who cares. I do what I want.
I believe the players will blink first. They are the ones who are unemployed. Could the price of Ty Wigginton (for example) drop so low that he falls into the price range of the Twins. Say what you want about Wigginton, but the price was the thing keeping me away, not his skillset. If we can get him for two years, why not. I have a feeling some players might sign a one year deal, hope they have a kickass year, and then next year go for the mega-bucks. Who knows, the economy might have rebounded by then, and teams will have more money to throw around. That would be in the best interest of the Twins, because we could nab a few normally high priced vets at bargain prices for the short term. They in turn are playing for their next payday so they but up good numbers for us, and we all part of good terms at seasons end. It’s a win-win. Thoughts? Did Bill Smith do the right thing by waiting for prices to drop, or was he foolish to make no moves early in the offseason? Did most of the agents overestimate their clients ability to get a big contract?
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Judging by the lack of earth-shattering moves made by anyone but the Yankees, I think Smith is doing the right thing by waiting. It seems to me that this is how negotiating is supposed to work- the players have to find out how much their services are actually worth to teams. Maybe now no one will give a ridiculous contract to a marginal player.
I agree that is how it SHOULD work. But this seems to be the first time where everyone (but the Yankees of course) are showing restraint. The dodgers are probably kicking themselves because I’m sure the price on Blake would have dropped like a lead baloon. I’m sure we will soon hear Boras crying “collusion” soon. I think Boras doesn’t know what that word means. He thinks it means “You aren’t giving me what I want”. Get a dictionary, buddy. There is a difference between collusion, and fiscal responsibility.
A lot of agents are already crying “collusion.” I think it’s ridiculous. Also, the “economy” is just a smoke screen used as an excuse. Baseball is still raking in billions, and isn’t set to slow down. The teams have the same amount of money they always did.
The real difference is that GMs are getting smarter. GMs are trending younger than ever, and many have analytical backgrounds, and even more than that have well stocked statistical departments telling them “Hey, these players are NOT worth that much, so don’t pay it. Also, the value to the team of a first round draft pick is like $8M, so try to avoid signing Type A free agents unless they’re bona fide superstars.” And the GMs listen, and thus make wise decisions. This is not collusion, unless by “collusion” you really mean “getting collectively less stupid” or “collectively pulling the wool from their eyes.” Or something. Damn agents.
Also, I’ve heard some people are starting to expect Adam Dunn to sign a one year deal, even for low dollars, in the hopes that he has a big season and enters free agency next season as by far the most valuable corner outfielder/slugger and drastically increase demand for himself. If he has a fifth consecutive 40 HR, 100 RBI season, his value would be pretty high. I hope the Twins are looking at this.
I don’t think the economy is ALL smoke and mirrors. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox who rely almost soley on season ticket holders (and team employed scalpers) souldn’t be affected. But mid to small market teams who rely on a lot of fans deciding to go to the game the morning of will be hurt. Lots of those fans will decide to save a few bucks and stay home. Especially if things get worse before they get better. That is neither here nor there, though.
I agree that front offices are getting younger (and smarter), which is something I wish the Twins would look into. But alas, if they do we might no longer have those scrappy players who get their uniforms dirty. We will just have wins. And what is more important, a dirty uniform or a win? Sadly, some people think the former. Probably nobody who reads this site, probably just Nick Punto’s grandmother.
On another note, I was reading an article about Twins CEO Jim Pohlad, and he was the force behind the Morneau, Nathan, and Cuddyer contracts. He went to Smith and said something along the lines of “Get it done, or I will cut you with a rusty spoon”. That is encouraging. Sounds like the new wave of rich, white people running the team are eager to keep our own talented players.
Another story I read about Carl Pohlad was he would offer investment advice to players. He kept seeing his players invest in dumb things like a bar with their deadbeat high school friends. He told his players to come to him and he would help them weigh the pros and cons, since he fancied himself a good (understatement) investor. Nobody took him up on the offer, mainly because agents would tell their clients owners steal from players. Why would a billionaire steal from a guy making league minimum? Again, agents are dumb.
[...] wrote this morning about hunting for bargains, and that more prices may drop as the offseason progresses and free agents actually get worried [...]
Damn it, Pohlad should have tried harder to demonstrate successful investment advice to players. Then he could have made a pitch like: “Well, the Twins don’t have a lot of funds, so we’re only able to offer you 75% of what the other teams can. However, as a Twins player you will have access to our specific investment opportunities. Last year the Twins Player Index Fund went up 11%. Compound those gains over the length of your contract, and you ACTUALLY MAKE MORE MONEY by coming to the Twins.”
Or something like that. People need to be more willing to think creatively.