Fire Gardy

There’s a lot of talk right now about Joe Crede. Some people demand that the Twins sign him because, damn it, at least it’s something! Others wonder if he’d be an upgrade from a Buscher/Harris platoon. Others wonder if he’d be worth the money he’s asking. Still others wonder if he can stay healthy.

Neyer points out that the team that signs him will be the one that knows how to evaluate and value defensive contributions, because Crede’s had only one above average season in the last six years.

And he’s right. For all the talk about Crede being a big offensive upgrade, he’s just not that great at the plate. Don’t let the fact that he’s been putting up 25 HR per year (in the Chicago kiddy-pool of a stadium) cloud your vision when you take a gander at his .306 career OBP. That’s right. .306 OBP. Not good.

That said, his offensive contribution last season was better than both Buscher and Harris. He was worth -1.2 runs offensive last year, while Buscher was worth -1.6 and Harris was worth -3.0; note that while Harris’ number is much worse than Buscher’s he got twice as much playing time, which just about balances them out to equally ineffective offensively.

Defense is another story. Crede has always been an excellent defensive third baseman — despite my accusations a few years ago that he just makes the easy plays look difficult, a la Punto, and isn’t actually that great, he really does get to a lot more balls than other guys would. Even in limited playing time he was worth +5.4 runs defensively, while Buscher was worth -2.8 and Harris -5.3; again, playing time brings Buscher and Harris pretty close to equally bad.

Overall, in 2008, Harris was worth 1.1 wins, Buscher was worth 0.4 wins, and Crede was worth 1.8 wins. Despite playing injured and missing nearly half the season, he was worth more to the White Sox than Buscher and Harris were worth to the Twins, combined. Crede’s contributions were worth $8.1M on the free agent market, and he was only paid $5.1M for it.

He’d add some pop to our lineup but would not be much of an offensive upgrade over a Buscher/Harris platoon; it’s possible that one or both of them turns a corner and improves offensively, but their minor league track records don’t indicate that their ceiling is awfully high. Defensively, they’re not going to get much better and we couldn’t do much better than Crede.

If he’s healthy, and the scouts who watched him as well as the increased interest from other teams seems to indicate that he is, he’s definitely worth $5.1M plus incentives. It may even be worthwhile to try to go to 2 years on his deal. Still, the Twins say they need to see him more times before being willing to make a commitment; meanwhile, other teams are probably preparing their offers.

I’ve been a proponent of the Buscher/Harris platoon all winter, but as long as Crede is capable of playing ball somewhere in the general ballpark of his ability, I don’t see how this signing doesn’t work out for the Twins. He’s at the bottom of his value, so we’d be buying low and could get plenty of upside. Even if we don’t, and he plays hurt for half the season and then is done, we still get more value than we would from Buscher/Harris during that half-season and more value than we’re paying for.

I say it’s time to move on Crede.