Fire Gardy

I know everyone’s ornery today because Gleeman is having another of those stupid live chats rather than actually penning an article. So let’s just get to some news, shall we?

The Cubs have been sold, for $900M, to some rich guy who claims to be a Cubs fan. Apparently, my request for a government bailout of $4 billion was ignored. (My reasoning was: “If you don’t give me free billions, I won’t be a billionaire!” This is the logic that puts taxpayer money into the pockets of rich guys in the form of “stadiums” or the more egregious “stay rich cash infusion.”) If I had gotten that well-deserved money, I certainly would have bid more than $900M to own the Cubs. Which would have been “good” for the economy. Yet another unforgivable screw up. I’m still waiting for that check.

In other Cubs news, they’re suing Under Armour. I, um, don’t know what to say about this other than that it’s probably not your underwear’s fault. If you know what I mean.

A little while back, Brendan Harris was interviewed by Baseball Prospectus. Their Q&A sessions with players aren’t often very interesting; the players tend to spew the same cliched crap they give to regular media people. However, I learned that Harris has a degree in political science and actually seems like a pretty smart guy.

He revealed that he spends most of his time talking to Slowey and Breslow, and that Cuddyer occasionally tries to join the conversation. Slowey and Breslow are generally regarded as the smartest guys on the team, so it’s no surprise that another smart guy would gravitate towards them — though they have talent, which Harris lacks.

He was asked to compare Gardy to Joe Maddon:

They’re two different guys with two different styles, albeit both successful. Joe is more of the professor type where he’s very analytical, although he will definitely get intense, too. He is more of a “thinks things through” [type]. Gardy is a little more emotional and really gets into the game. Sometimes you almost can’t tell if Gardy is out there playing or if he’s managing. He wears it on his sleeve a little more.

Now, there’s really nothing there that’s not obvious … but I will say that I have never been confused about whether Gardy is playing or managing. I’ve been confused as to whether he’s managing or not managing, but … playing? Really? But I do like it that Gardy’s emotional — it makes for better pictures. See the logo at the top of the page.

They finished with this:

DL: I can’t let you get away without bringing up that you were once compared, as a minor league prospect, to Albert Pujols.

BH: Oh, man. Let’s put it this way: If that was a diagnosis, I’d say, ‘Doctor, you were way off base on that one.’

Looks like we got the wrong infielder. And I would like to know who ever compared Harris to Pujols, and whether they still have a job.

And to finish, I’d just like to point out that however much other teams are complaining about the “economy” getting them down and constraining their wallets, the Twins are doing just fine. The team is on pace to sell a franchise record 11000 season tickets for 2009, and they have this to say about their financials:

“We’re in a unique situation with the new ballpark on the horizon, the last year in the Metrodome, a very competitive team and a great value proposition in terms of flexibility and affordability,” said Steve Smith, the Twins’ vice president of ticket sales and service. “In some respects, I think we’re riding above some of the economic pain that some other organizations are feeling right now.”

Well, personally, I think that’s great. It’s certainly good to hear that we’re doing well, which is more enjoyable than the schadenfreude of hearing that the Mets ownership was taken to the cleaners by Madoff.

So I guess it’s a good thing the Twins are one of the few teams doing well financially this offseason. You can really tell by the way they’re throwing their money around.

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Just saw a little note about something that happened at TwinsFest. It’s a small thing, but it leads me to wonder: Is it even possible any more not to like Denard Span? I mean, come on:

Denard Span remembers when Torii Hunter picked him up at his hotel during TwinsFest a half-dozen years ago, and how he took him to dinner and showed him around the Metrodome.

“I promised Torii that whenever I made it, whoever the next guy was, I would try to take him under my wing and help him out the same way,” Span said.

He got his chance over the weekend, serving as an informal chaperone for Ben Revere, the Twins’ 20-year-old center fielder of the future. A nice gesture — particularly because Span doesn’t have an entire season of major league experience yet himself.

“It’s a little weird. I guess I’m starting to get old already,” Span joked. “It seems like just last year that I was just like him. I can tell he’s nervous, doesn’t know what to say. I remember being the same way.”

We were not alone in disparaging Denard last year when he was trying to break in with the big club, and his bravado seemed completely out of place given his minor league numbers. It looked like he would be — at best — a mediocre stopgap until Gomez was ready in a year or so.

Boy was everyone wrong.

He’s the fourth best hitter on the team, and his center fielder’s range makes a mockery of right field — earning him the nickname “Mr Web Gem” from the guys on ESPN. (Although I don’t think anyone with a cool name like “Denard Span” should have a nickname.) He has great plate discipline, good speed, and an accurate arm.

Span turns 25 one month from today. And he’s already turning into a leader, despite not even having a full year of service time under his belt.

That settles it. I need to buy a Span t-shirt jersey.

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So the Twins players aren’t upset by the paucity of moves this offseason. My initial reaction was that they must read this website*, because we’ve been harping on that point all winter.

And I wholeheartedly encourage the players to read this website. I promise Gardy won’t get mad. He seems like a fun-loving guy who enjoys incendiarily-titled blogs himself. Right?

But I don’t really think they are. Instead, I think the team decided to pay off the right guys.

Torii Hunter used to have the occasional grumble about the front office’s inaction. Johan Santana, too. But this is not their team anymore.

They complained, and now they’re gone. Damn right. Does that set a bad precedent? “Keep your mouth shut or you’re gone”-type deal?

I don’t think so. Remember when Nathan and Morneau were complaining that the front office wasn’t adding any pieces and wasn’t doing what it could to win?

Well, now that they have their dollars, they’ve changed their tune.

Nathan sings the praises of his supporting cast in the bullpen, and extolls the virtues of the team. Morneau, on the other hand, is basically quoting me:

“Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make,” Justin Morneau said. ”Just because Kansas City’s making moves or Cleveland’s making moves or whatever, that doesn’t mean that we have to do it to show that we’re making moves.

“If it’s the right fit, then it’s the right fit. But if it’s costing us two of our starting pitchers to go get a guy — the guys who got us to where we got last year were the guys in our rotation.

“Do you give up that just to get a bat? You win in this league over a full season with pitching and defense. There’s benefits on both sides [making a move or not making a move], but at the same time, we won a lot of games last year with the team we have.”

Thank you Justin. And I won’t even complain about the lack of attribution. I understand that it’s difficult to link to a website in spoken word. And also that your boss wouldn’t really appreciate it if you tried*. But it doesn’t really matter, because a whole lot more people are listening to you than to me. So spread the word, team leader.

I propose that people start trying to link to articles, or at least to websites, while speaking. IE, “Just because Kansas City’s making moves or Cleveland’s making moves or whatever Fire Gardy, that doesn’t mean we have to do it to show that we’re making moves.” Am I the only one who thinks the other people involved in the conversation would do a double-take at that? I mean, it doesn’t work as well for ESPN or Wikipedia, but in some cases it could be a delight. If I ever talk to someone in person again, I might have to try this.

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In 2008, the Twins went 88-75 and finished second in the division. Jerks from Boston leaped eagerly from the woodwork to claim that the Twins were, in fact, terrible; that the only reason they won 88 games was because they were lucky enough to score runs with men on base, whereas “good” teams score most of their runs with nobody on base.

(That was their point, right?)

The issue, of course, was that the Twins hit very well with runners in scoring position. Considerably better than they did without runners in scoring position. The logic goes that since this isn’t a repeatable skill and is just random, the Twins are sure to regress and therefore score many fewer runs next year.

On the other hand, the best predictor of actual record is Pythagorean record (which is based on runs scored versus runs against). The Twins scored 5.1 runs per game while giving up 4.6 runs per game; this corresponds to an 89-74 team, which is remarkably close to reality*. Despite the raucous calls of those self-proclaimed mathematical geniuses, Baseball Reference points out that the Twins were actually UNLUCKY in 2008, when it came to their record.

Amusingly, the White Sox scored 5.0 runs per game and gave up 4.5, and thus had an identical 89-74 Pythagorean record. It really should come as no surprise that these two teams went down to a 163rd game, they were about exactly as good. And if the Twins had come out on top of that 1-0 game, we’d have a Luck of 0 while the White Sox have our Luck of -1. Although given that we scored 99 runs against the White Sox, and they scored 101 against us, a reversal of that 1-0 score would have put us each at 100 runs, adding to the bafflingly poetic symmetry.

That said, though, the runs-scored vs runs-against nature of Pythag doesn’t account for the crux of the issue, which is that the Twins scored runs when it counted most, and that ability has not correlated from year to year (ie, when you do it one year, that doesn’t mean you’ll do it the next year — which means it isn’t a “skill”).

So … thankfully we have access to FanGraphs’s new context neutral Win Values system, and the way they do it at a team level is just to add every player’s values up (they do this for you, thankfully) and get the entire teams “Wins above replacement level.” For the purposes of their system, the replacement level is set as a .289 team*. That’s 46.8 wins. The Twins got 17.6 wins from their position players, and 16.2 wins from their pitchers. Which puts them at 80.6 wins overall. Rather than being an 88-89 win team (based on reality and Pythag), the Twins instead were just an 80-81 win team (based on context neutral win values).

I wonder what a team would actually be like if EVERY player were actually a replacement level player. It’s a fun though experiment; say the entire 40 man roster gets pissed at you and goes on strike, or flees the country, or are arrested for not paying their taxes. What would the team do? Shut down? Or would they run around grabbing AA players and minor league free agents and scrounging the waiver wire and holding tryouts at the stadium? Just how bad would that team be? That’s what a replacement level player is supposed to be — someone who’s freely available in AA or in the scrap heap. Would such a team really go 46-116?

If the Twins had taken some of their clutch hits and moved them to non-clutch situations, of course they’d have scored fewer runs. That’s basically all this says. But it indicates that the Twins were, in fact, a little lucky in that their run-scoring was highly leveraged, if not that they won an inordinate amount of close games. (Using the same method, the White Sox were a 92 win team in 2008.)

The one thing to give us hope, though? The correlation of team Win Values to reality and Pythag.

Win Values to Pythag: .90 Win Values to Wins: .85

So the actual record is more closely correlated with the Pythagorean record than it is with the Win Values record. For what that’s worth.

Frankly, I think the Twins need to get on base more and get more doubles and home runs.

[Update: Apparently there was a bug on the pitching team values page at FanGraphs, where it failed to correctly count values for pitchers that switched teams midseason. The Twins went from 16.2 to 17.7 for their pitching, which puts us at 82.1 expected wins in 2008.]

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Tom Powers has normally been pretty good over the last year-plus … but I think he might be getting cabin fever given the slow offseason:

Smith does not want to trade one of those starters. No how, no way. And he also didn’t sound particularly eager to part with an outfielder. Meanwhile, Smith said that all he’s been offered so far are “one-year Band-Aids.” But you have to give something to get something.

His latest article recommends trading one of our valuable young starting pitchers for a one year rental of a veteran reliever.

That’s not giving up something to get something. That’s giving up something to get nothing, and it’s the exact reason Bill Smith says:

“No, I’m not going to catch hell,” he insisted. “We’ve been working hard all season, and we just can’t get anything done.”

and

“We’re looking at a lot of options, a lot of possibilities,” he said. “We’re trying. But the deals have to make us better.”

I’m going to call this one a win for Smith. In this winter of “hope,” fans want hope for the future of the team and that’s traditionally found in new acquisitions. In this winter of doom for the newspapers, writers want a scoop; they want a big story. That’s traditionally found when the team makes big moves, regardless of their efficacy in making the team better — actually, it can often be better for the writers if the team makes bad moves. That’s easier to write about.

I continue to be glad Smith doesn’t throw away one of our starters and/or outfielders just for the sake of making a move, or sell someone off for pennies on the dollar just because we have a lot of young talent and lack our traditional crappy old veterans this year.

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Jim Souhan dropped another bit of gold this morning; he criticizes the team for foolishly making no moves, criticizes the available moves, then criticizes the team for overlooking the obvious solution right under their noses. Move Cuddyer to third base!

I’m on record saying that in the past, and I am now reconsidering my position. No opinion espoused by Souhan can be a particularly good one.

Baseball held its winter meetings this year in Las Vegas, where your Minnesota Twins set a record sure to be listed in next year’s “Baseball Encyclopedia.” They became the first major league organization ever to visit Sin City and get outspent by the writer assigned to cover them.

Sure to be listed? I doubt it. There’s probably not a record for that, and if there were, the Twins probably didn’t set it. You know, given that a lot of teams didn’t do anything at the winter meetings, and writer spending is way down given the financial straits of the newspapers. If a single writer had spent more than an entire team, that writer would surely no longer be employed. But I get Souhan’s point here. He is contractually required to make idiotic statements. Done.

Profligate spending built Vegas’ opulent towers. If the Twins were the city’s only clientele, the place would look a lot like Brainerd. As Twins General Manager Bill Smith put it on Friday, ”We have had a very busy winter … and the result is almost nothing.”

Oh my, that’s unacceptable! Bill Smith should write a big check to Vegas to allow them to build more casinos and towers! The Twins need to bail out Las Vegas, otherwise … the city might never have been built! And also, if an entire city consisting of casinos attempted to rely on a single client/gambler, it would look a lot more desolate than Brainerd. Probably something more like this:

That’s right. Suck on that Brainerd.

Smith earned the nickname ”Mr. No” for his thrifty ways. This winter, he’s been more like ”Dr. Don’t Even Think About It.”

More of this? Would you rather have a GM with the nickname “Mr Moronic Big Spender?”

The Twins started the winter with an extra outfielder, no sure-fire setup man and a mess on the left side of the infield. They wrap up TwinsFest today with an extra outfielder, no sure-fire setup man and a mess on the left side of the infield.

And they’re short an owner. Should we blame Smith for that too? There should be more sure-fire third basemen and shortstops on the market! Hall of Famers in their prime willing to sign for the league minimum! Gold Glove fielders with power! Why doesn’t this idiot GM sign them?!?!?

They re-signed Nick Punto to play shortstop. Punto is a wonderful fielder wherever you put him, but he’s played his best when he had to win a job during the season (in 2006 and 2008) and his worst when he was handed one before spring training (in 2007).

This is true, and I’m not a huge proponent of the Punto signing, but I will say this: it’s market value for a good utility infielder. Well below market value for a shortstop. And his annual salary will be 40% of what he’s worth (go to the bottom) in a good year (2006, 2008), and 125% of what he’s worth in a bad year (2005, 2007). If trends continue, we’ll get one good year and one bad year out of him: $13M in value for $8M. There just isn’t that much to criticize about this deal, even if you don’t like Punto. Also, would Souhan have preferred they let Punto walk and let Tolbert play SS? Or Harris? Or re-sign Adam Everett instead? Are there any, you know, available alternatives? No? Then what’s with the complaining?

While they’re looking into free-agent third baseman Joe Crede, the Twins plan to platoon Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris at third. Punto, Buscher and Harris on the left side of the infield — a Twins fan might imagine it working out somehow, but if the Indians, Tigers or White Sox were trying this, Minnesotans would be pointing and laughing.

No, I’m sure Minnesotans would be blindly agreeing with you, Souhan, that the Twins are making a huge mistake that the aggression by our division rivals cannot stand, and that the Twins are foolish for not making ridiculous deals to compete with the clearly positive moves being made by the Indians, Tigers, or White Sox. At least those Minnesotans without access to the internet. You know, like with Mark Derosa.

Crede would provide the righthanded pop and fielding excellence that would fit perfectly into this lineup, and the Twins would obsess over his low on-base percentage less than many franchises, but there is a catch. Crede has a bad back, and he just started working out. So he’d be fine at third base, as long as he never had to bend over and pick anything up.

Crede may not be fully healthy, and he may not be capable of fielding his position as well as everyone is accustomed to. However, I think it’s fair to assume that if the Twins (or any team, for that matter) were to actually sign him to a contract, he will have proved that he’s at the very least capable of bending over and picking up a baseball. Also, where was the myth that Crede’s a great hittern born? He’s been better than replacement level with the bat exactly once in a full season (2006). His OPS+ numbers since 2003, when he first got his full time job: 92, 83, 96, 107, 49, 98. Career: 93. These numbers do not set the world on fire. For reference … Brian Buscher’s career OPS+ is 93. Brendan Harris’ is 97.

What the Twins need on the left side of the infield is a righthanded hitter with pop. What they can afford on the left side of the infield is a fielder with limited range, because Punto and second baseman Alexi Casilla cover so much ground.

The Twins can afford a bad defensive third baseman because the second baseman has good range and the shortstop has average range? Well then, I hope nobody’s planning to complain about the fielding we’ll get from the Buscher/Harris platoon. And what, exactly, does the second baseman’s range have to do with third base defense?

What the Twins need in their outfield is one less everyday player. What they can afford is an outfield featuring Carlos Gomez and Denard Span at two of the three positions, because their range creates so many extra outs.

Afford. You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Add up all those factors, and the Twins have two choices, other than sticking with Harris and Buscher:

This should be good.

1. Trade left fielder Delmon Young for a third baseman. Young is young and talented enough to attract the eye of an ambitious general manager, and the Twins have concerns about his work ethic and plate approach.

Should work without problems. He’s young and talented enough that some team will give up a (rare) major league caliber third baseman with power for him, given that he’s a no-glove corner outfielder and there’s such a big dearth of those on the market right now. Wouldn’t you rather give up a starter for Delmon Young than pay a pittance for Adam Dunn? Also, why would he be “good enough” for some team to pay a lot for when he’s not “good enough” for the Twins? This is the “Why don’t we just trade Punto for A-Rod?” question.

2. Move the righthanded-hitting outfielder who grew up as a shortstop and transitioned to third base back to third base.

We’ve talked about this in the past, and it requires buy-in from the veteran Cuddyer. The oldest and most experienced position player on the team. I presume nobody noticed the brouhaha when the Rangers tried to move Michael Young to third base to accomodate a younger player — and Cuddyer’s actually decent at his position. Also, I’ve heard that Cuddyer isn’t that interested in moving around again, given that he feels he’s established his position and that his offense came around when he moved to RF permanently. And if you think you’re hitting because you’re playing right field, then you are. That’s how baseball works.

Would Twins manager Ron Gardenhire give any consideration to moving Michael Cuddyer to third at any point this season?

”No, none,” Gardenhire said sternly. ”Absolutely none.”

Then he got that mischievous look on his face and said, ”That’s as of today!”

Haw haw. What are the odds Gardy just used that “mischievous look on his face” as a way of telling you, off the record, that you shouldn’t bother writing an idiotic article about it. But that couldn’t be.

Last he was heard from, Cuddyer didn’t want to move to third base. My guess is if you wrote down his name at that position, he wouldn’t go on strike.

I’m sure Cuddyer has been “heard from” since saying he doesn’t want to move to third base. I also think it’s immaterial whether he would “go on strike,” which he wouldn’t do no matter what happened unless The Union forced him to. You know, just like all the other players.

Move Cuddyer to third base, and the Twins get better without having to spend any more money or trade any prospects.

It’s so logical, it has no chance of happening. That’s as of today.

Fin. I’m sure the entire article could have been summed up with: “I had a great idea! Everyone else in the world has also had the same idea, and the parties involved don’t think it would work for various reasons. And they won’t talk to me about it. Also something may change in the future, or it might not. So … no reason to waste your time with the details.”

But then we wouldn’t have got that great joke about Brainerd. So take that, you stupid people who live in a small town that by some failing of yours is not as glamorous as Las Vegas! You suck!

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Joe C will miss Dennis Reyes.

Aww.

Reyes, who earned the nickname “The Big Sweat” partially for being perturbingly overweight and partially for managing to break a prodigious sweat while laboring to throw eight pitches 50 feet every three or four days, will probably not be with the Twins next year. Joe explains why:

Reyes, who posted a 2.33 ERA in 75 games for the Twins last year, probably would have commanded a three-year, $12 million deal in a better economy.

Now, he’ll probably get a two-year deal for about half that price. Still, it wouldn’t make sense for the Twins to sign him. If they spend money on a reliever, he should be an eighth-inning specialist.

Yes, it should be on an 8th inning specialist. As opposed to someone who, you know, sucks. And can’t throw a baseball 60 feet. But noooo … it’s the economy that’s screwing Mr Sweat out of his well-earned $12 million.

I can recall my feelings every time Reyes waddled in from the bullpen. Trepidation. Fear. The intense desire to turn off the game in the knowledge that we’d lose the game. The satisfaction in knowing that I’d correctly predicted the walk-wild pitch-home run sequence that was forthcoming. But Joe C has a different reason to “miss” Reyes.

I should mention that he’s been one of my favorites in the Twins’ clubhouse. Reyes hails from Mexico and would routinely greet me by saying, “Que pasa?” What’s up? What’s happening? He wanted to know what Twins news I was hearing behind the scenes.

Would we get more news if we asked Joe “Que pasa?” every once in a while? Because … this doesn’t seem important to me.

I know some German but almost no Spanish, so it became our running gag, the way I would grapple for a proper response in Spanish. ”Nada,” I’d usually say. Nothing. Fortunately, Reyes’ English is excellent, and he tells some great stories about pitching for Jack McKeon’s Reds.

That’s sweet. Joe had to grapple for the word “nada” every time. As if that weren’t in the traditional American lexicon anyway. And who cares about the stories someone can tell about pitching for the Reds if that person cannot, for the lack of a better word, pitch?

(Funny, we could have had that same conversation every day this offseason, and it would have been the same. Any Twins news? Nada.)

That is funny. Because you’re the guy who, um, writes the news. Why is everyone complaining that the Twins aren’t creating more blowhard-worthy news, for the sake of the blowhards? Honestly. The team is good enough to compete, and for the first time in the last several years, we’re not sitting here saying “Well, the Twins made another stupid move and will be giving at bats and/or innings to another mediocre veteran while the young guys rot in Rochester instead of contributing to the team,” and having to wait until June until the young players come up and actually perform at an adequate level. This time, all the young guys are here from the beginning. This is A Good Thing (TM).

But Joe C was explaining why Reyes will be missed so much, to the point of being virtually irreplaceable. Let’s allow him to continue.

Anyway, Breslow was a tremendous pickup for the Twins last season. He posted a 1.63 ERA in 42 appearances after getting claimed off waivers from Cleveland in late-May. The Twins began turning to him in tougher situations, and Breslow made 13 appearances in September, spanning nine innings, without allowing an earned run.

Yes, Breslow was pretty good. The only problem with Breslow was that Gardy wouldn’t let him pitch often enough, and then when he let him go in he’d leave him in for four innings while his arm fell off. But ultimately, that’s a really good point. Having an effective lefty in the bullpen really means we can’t lose Reyes. Wait … there’s more?

Meanwhile in September, Mijares became an overnight sensation, posting a 0.87 ERA and taking over the primary setup duties. In 10 1/3 innings, Mijares allowed one run and three hits. In the 1-0 tiebreaker loss to the White Sox, Mijares relieved Nick Blackburn, faced four batters and retired them all.

Oh my, you mean besides our lefty who’s better than Reyes we have an even better lefty ready to go who struck everyone out and has success against both lefties and righties and doesn’t weight 360 pounds? Well hell, we’d better scrape those twelve millions together to keep our hands clutching to Reyes’ sizable love handles!

Breslow is far from overpowering, but he’s extremely savvy. Keep in mind, he has a degree in molecular biophysics and biochemistry from Yale.

That’s a good point. I have to give it to Christensen here. There’s a long, storied history of Yalies in the majors, and knowledge of molecular biochemistry surely helps in the “getting people out” category. Wait a second. Why do I care about Breslow’s (admittedly impressive) degree? I’m fairly certain Liriano never went to Yale, nor did Santana, but they are pretty good pitchers. Where did Reyes study biochemistry?

Here’s the thing: Reyes, who turns 32 in April, is a 12-year major league veteran. He usually got the call, when the Twins were about to face a tough left-handed batter in a close, late-inning game.

The number one the Twins need is an old guy to suck up some of our valuable innings from talented players. Also, in what sense was it ever a good thing that “The Big Sweat” usually got the call when the Twins were locked in a close battle late in the game? That was the most infuriating thing about Reyes even being on the team!

You get the picture. The Twins might like Breslow and Mijares, but they’ll miss Reyes’ experience. I’ll miss our conversations.

I do get the picture. We explain the reasons why Breslow and Mijares are better options than Reyes, ignore the fact that nobody needs three lefties in the bullpen, especially when the available option is to ditch the one of the three that can’t face righties. Then we say all the reasons we personally like The Fat Mexican (Big Sweat, sorry Dennis).

I will not miss Dennis Reyes. I just hope some other team agrees with Joe C, such that we actually get our compensatory draft pick. That’s how worthless Reyes is. Nobody even wants him, and we can’t get our draft pick. Therefore, he must be great!

Boy, it’s slow in Twins territory. Nobody should be talking about how much they “miss” The Scourge of the Dome Dog.

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There have been a few owners, namely Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, who have been clamoring for a salary cap this offseason after the Yankees bought seemingly everyone.  I figure this is as good a topic as any to discuss.

I think a salary cap will help a lot of teams, but it won’t really make as big a difference as people think.  Proponents of a cap claim it will create parity, like in the NFL.  I disagree.  MLB already has parity.  We haven’t had a repeat World Series winner since, when?, the Yankees in 1999 and 2000?  That was really even before they started spending insane amounts of money.  They didn’t sign Giambi to his mega-deal until after 2001.  What did that get them?  No rings, that’s what.  The Red Sox have won two rings recently (2004, 2007) and have had a pretty hefty payroll.  However, many contributors weren’t high priced players.  In their most recent series run, Jacoby Ellsbury played a huge role, and he plays for peanuts.  Josh Beckett is still (and was at the time) under contract at a reasonable price.  Same goes for David Ortiz.  Manny signed a mega-contract the same year as A-Rod, and was a little over halfway through it in 2007.  JD Drew was their big free agent pick up, 5 years, 70 mil.  He didn’t really do much, except have one good playoff game.  Ortiz was making 12.5 mil, which is reasonable, if not a good deal, considering his output,  Beckett only made 6mil in 07.  I could go on, but I think you get my point.  The red sox didn’t win that year just by outspending everyone.  In fact, I would argue that nobody has ever won a world series simply by throwing money at players until they got a ring.  Everyone mentions the Yankees, but as I said, they haven’t won a title since 2000.  In that year, they had only three guys make over 10 million.  Bernie Williams, David Cone, and Derek Jeter. The payroll was around 100 million, but considering the economic boom we were in (even though it was almost over) they had to be raking in money hand over fist.

I think the more pressing issue is fixing the draft system.  This is where the big money teams (Yankees, Res Sox, etc) have an advantage.  The bad teams have high draft picks, but more often than not the elite players tend to drop to the teams with deeper pockets.  If I am an elite baseball player, I know that I can demand the moon as a signing bonus and I will drop until someone (most likely the Yankees) gets me.  If a person unfamiliar with baseball looks at the first round of a draft, and each player’s corresponding signing bonus, it won’t make sense.  The largest signing bonuses will probably be towards the bottom.

In summary, I don’t think the problem is overall free agent spending.  Its the draft process.  Should we put a cap on signing bonuses?  That is probably half the problem. Now we have kids getting major league contracts.  In the NFL I don’t think signing bonuses count against the cap, so instituting a salary cap won’t help all that much.  This slotting system is really bogus too.  Maybe if they enforce that, it could be a start.  What do you guys think?

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I’m pretty sure I talked about the Drama Index a while back, though I can’t find it now. It’s a nice little stat invented by Dave Studeman at The Hardball Times, which focuses on the importance of each game when it comes to getting you into the playoffs. A team’s odds of getting into the playoffs increase or decrease after each game, depending on whether you win or lose — the more your likelihood of making the playoffs changes after a game, the higher the Drama Index for that game.

Well, the Twins and White Sox were the most dramatic teams in 2008, not surprisingly, because we were withing a game of each other for the last four months of the season, played each other numerous times at the end of the season, and played a one game playoff (which was, obviously, the single “most dramatic” game of the year). Incidentally, the Twins are often one of the most dramatic teams in the league; I don’t know what this says about the Twins, but it’s entertaining for the fans, which is, I think, the point.

Well, today Studeman wants to think about the MVP race. He started off with the NL, because of the way that race turned out. Pujols would be the obvious choice if you just looked at numbers (he is, after all, amazing). But, the Ryan Howard supporters shout, the Cardinals didn’t even make the playoffs! Ryan Howard plays his best in September* and that’s why the Phillies made the playoffs! He should be MVP!

I don’t know why nobody ever talks about this, but why is it a good thing that Howard hits the most home runs in September? That’s the month of September callups — ie, rather than facing good pitchers like he does all year (and strikes out), he gets to face AAA guys who are shaking in their boots. And he takes them deep because they don’t know that all you have to do is throw him breaking balls and the occasional high-and-tight fastball, and he’ll look confused for three pitches and go sit down. In September 2008, Ryan Howard’s home runs came off: Odalis Perez, Marco Estrada, Johan Santana, Eulogio De La Cruz, Ricky Nolasco, Ben Sheets, David Bush, Mike Gonzalez, Josh Johnson, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Collin Balester. Of those, the guys who were minor leaguers in 2008 are: Estrada, De La Cruz, Gonzalez, Johnson, Reyes, and Balester. So 6 of his 11 homers in September were off minor league pitchers. In addition to that, Odalis Perez and Ricky Nolasco are no good, and Santana gives up a lot of home runs — especially to lumbering left handed sluggers against whom his changeup isn’t as effective. You tell me — are these numbers indicative of a truly elite slugger, or just someone who feasts on mediocre pitching?

Well, it turns out that if you weight a player’s WPA (wins probablity added) gained in each game by that games DI (drama index), you come up with PPA (postseason probability added) … and Pujols and Howard come out just about even. In fact, Howard (4.48) comes out ahead of Pujols (4.39), largely because of Howard’s minor league homers in September when the Phillies were in the playoff race, coupled with the fact that the rest of Pujols’ team sucks and they didn’t play any meaningful games. Of course, Carlos Beltran played even better down the stretch and ran away with a PPA of 8.30. Perhaps he should have been the MVP!

In the AL, it gets much more amusing. Recall that the Twins and White Sox played the most meaningful and dramatic games of the year as you take a gander at this list:

Player      Team      WPA    DI    PPA
Span, D     MIN      1.98  1.56   5.16
Mauer, J    MIN      4.88  1.20   3.71
Dye, J      CHA     -0.26  0.88   3.48
Hamilton, J TEX      2.80  0.66   2.99
Ramirez, A  CHA      0.31  0.97   2.54
Bradley, M  TEX      2.09  0.65   2.26
Cabrera, M  DET      2.95  0.64   2.24
Giambi, J   NYA      1.96  0.77   2.23
Quentin, C  CHA      3.81  0.57   2.18
Morneau, J  MIN      3.87  1.16   1.88

Oh me oh my, the Denard tops the list! No wonder I keep feeling the urge to buy his t-shirt jersey. Span played well down the stretech in extremely important games — and thus came out on top of the AL PPA rankings. Mauer was second, as he hit well all season long and didn’t stop in September. Morneau was 10th, because despite hitting extremely well all year he shut it down in September. (Sorry to bring back the bad memories.)

Ultimately, 7 of the top 10 PPA hitters came from the AL Central; three from the Twins, three from the White Sox, and one from the Tigers. Is this a fluky result of the dramatic games, or is the AL Central undervalued and underreported, universally, by both the traditional media and the statistical community? Probably a little of both,  but Studeman makes his feelings clear on the matter:

Yes, that Denard Span. On September 25th, Span hit a run-scoring triple in the bottom of the eighth to tie a key game with the White Sox (drama index of 4.7, WPA of .425). Multiply those out, and you get a PPA of more than two for just one play. Span also played a lot of critical games for the Twins—I thought that his average Drama Index of 1.56 was a typo until I realized that Span didn’t play at all in May and June. He played “when it counted.” To his credit, Span didn’t have any big negative WPA days when it counted; most players do.

[...]

I actually did play with a running five-game average of the drama index instead of setting the drama index specific to that game. I used a five-game average because most pitching rotations are five-man rotations, and DI seems to really take off in the last five games of the season. That did mute the impact somewhat. For instance, Joe Mauer leaped to the top of the AL list and Denard Span dropped a bit. But it didn’t make a huge difference. I think the system that I’ve presented here does what it’s supposed to do.

Every idea, carried to its logical extreme, becomes a caricature of itself.

So there was no chance, in his mind, that the Twins players could have been atop that list. He did what he could to fudge the numbers so “no-name losers” like “Denard Span” wouldn’t look like they’re “good at baseball.” But he couldn’t. Without going back to stats like “home runs” and “dollars of revenue per commercial,” Span and Mauer are on top of the list. Sorry, America. We’re good.

As an amusing aside, he also ran these numbers for pitchers. Johan Santana and CC Sabathia topped the NL. Jon Danks and Scott Baker topped the AL, and the only pitcher in the top 7 who wasn’t from either the Twins or White Sox was Mariano Rivera. (Danks, Baker, Jenks, Rivera, Nathan, Mijares, Buehrle. Nice.)

Studeman points out that Danks pitched a great game in the single most dramatic game of the year — and the PPA he got from that game alone is higher than his season PPA total. Without that performance in that game, he’s below average. Talk about leverage.

Just some fun numbers for a lazy Thursday morning. And we’ve found ourselves a great leadoff hitter in Denard Span. Someday other people may realize that.

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Lets hit on a few things that have been happening with the Twins and around the league these past few days:

• Derek Lowe signs with the Braves for four years, $60 mil.  Without a no-trade clause.  That isn’t a terrible signing, considering he is a Boras client.   Doesn’t Boras almost always get no trade clauses, and opt out clauses for his clients?  I’d say the Braves won this one.
• The Braves also signed Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami for 3 years, 23 mil.  He projects to be a starter.  The Braves did a good job this week rebuilding their starting rotation.
• Michael Young asked the Rangers to trade him because he doesn’t want to switch positions.  The Twins popped up as a potential suitor, but I hope Smith and co. respond with an emphatic “No Thanks”.  Young is bad defensively at short,despite “winning” a gold glove. (I think the term “given” is better than “won” when referring to a gold glove).  His OPS, along with almost all his other offensive numbers, have declined steadily in each of the last 4 years.  He might be the single most overrated player in the AL.
• Manny and Dunn still are unemployed.  Dunn will probably sign a one year contract somewhere in the hopes of signing a big money, multiyear contract after the 09 season.  Manny will probably wait too long, and come out with a contract that is only slightly better than the money he would have earned had he stayed in Boston. We will all laugh at this.
• Jermaine Dye’s name is still floating around, but nobody seems willing to trade for him.  The Angels are the latest to express no interest.
• Mark Prior has been given another chance.  Signing a one year, minor league deal with the Padres.  Who is second guessing the drafting of Mauer now? That’s what I thought.
• The Twins spent another week sitting on their hands.  As we discussed earlier, this is probably a good thing as prices on free agents are dropping faster than shares of Citigroup.
• Bert Blyleven was again denied admission to the baseball hall of fame.  I want him to make it to the hall, but I don’t think he should get upset over what a few hundred sports writers think of him.  Baseball people (GMs, owners, players) know he was great, fans know he was great, and he has a few rings.  Everything else is out of his control.  I was watching the Mike and Mike radio show before work on Tuesday, and he sounded very frustrated.  Hopefully they get it right next year, but if not he shouldn’t let it bother him.  Easier said than done I’m sure.
• Anything else I missed? 

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