Time to Extend Baker
Last week, a rumor about signing Scott Baker to a long term contract came and went without much fanfare.
“I have definitely entertained the idea of it.” Baker said recently of a possible multi-year deal. “I like this place. I like playing here. I like the coaching staff and obviously we have a great clubhouse. It’s kind of up to them, but I definitely have thought about it.”Okay, it’s up to the Twins. Would they do something like that?
“Historically, we’ve done deals with players as they get to two, three and four years of service time,” Antony said. “And I think that’s something we’ll continue to do.”Yes, they have. Morneau, Kubel, Mauer, Santana, Crain. But would Scott Baker be worth a long term deal right now? They say that the last year before they hit arbitration is the best year to ink them to a deal, so you can buy out their arbitration years and give them some security when they had none, but before they’re sniffing free agency just around the corner. That’s where Baker is right now, so let’s see what a contract would look like.
In 2007, Baker’s free market value was $11.7M, and in 2008 it was $15.4M. That’s what a pitcher who consistently puts up good numbers is worth. (And I’m looking at FIP here, not W and ERA which are much more dependent on teammates.) His 2007 FIP was 3.89; in 2008 it was 3.79. His numbers are consistent, and good. So let’s say his market value is somewhere between 2007 and 2008, and stays there until he’s 30 (three years from now), at which point he will start to decline at a typical rate of 10% per year.
So his market values for the next four years, let’s say, are $12M, $12M, $12M, $10.8M. That is absolutely not the contract we should give him; that’s what we would pay if these weren’t his arbitration years. The general guideline for arbitration salaries is that they are an increasing percentage of the player’s market value: 20%/40%/80% or 40%/60%/80% in the three arbitration years. When signing a player through his last pre-arbitration years, some teams get 20/20/40/80, others get 20/40/60/80 or something along those lines.
If the Twins got a team-friendly 20/20/40/80 contract, Baker’s yearly salary would be $2.4M, $2.4M, $4.8M, $8.6M. If it were the more player-friendly 20/40/60/80 deal, his contract would look like $2.4M, $4.8M, $7.2M, $8.6M. So we’re probably looking at something in the range between 4/$18M and 4/$23M for a fair deal. Toss one or two $10-12M team options on the end with $2-3M buyouts, and you’ve probably got yourself a deal.
The problem with doing this for the Twins is:
- Baker could get hurt.
- This is what they’d be paying him if he doesn’t improve from where he is, so why give him the long term deal?
- Security breeds lack of motivation in some cases.
I think the Twins should get this done and lock up the most consistent pitcher on the team through his arbitration years. Not only would it probably help the team and have minimal downside (Baker does not have an injury history and has a simple, non-violent delivery), but it would send the right message to the fans and the players.
What do you think about a possible Baker extension?
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That was a great breakdown of salary projections for Baker, and I would be just fine with the Twins giving Baker 4/$18 to 4/$23, definitely a good deal as I dont think there’s much of a risk being taken with injury, etc…
My question, is Mauer more of a priority to get signed to an extension? Certainly Baker and Mauer would be 1 and 2 on the list for contract moves…
thoughts?
Good question. I think both are top priority, and should get done.
But in my opinion, extending Mauer simply MUST be done. There’s no other option. (Obviously, letting him go in two years and replacing him with Wilson Ramos is an “option,” but I’d prefer to think of losing Mauer as an unthinkable proposition.)
I don’t see why they couldn’t open conversations with both of them at the same time and try to get both deals done. If it came down to only being able to do one deal, I think you go with Mauer; we only have him for 2 years while Baker’s under our control for 4 more. And the best catcher in baseball is quite a bit more rare than a good right handed starter. (Especially for our organization, which has so many pitchers.)
Very true, have to agree, I think you work to get Mauer extended before this year is done and then work on Baker next off-season, as he’ll be 1 more year to FA (as you pointed out)…
Letting Mauer go, that would be insane, I mean, you thought Hunter and Santana were untouchable, but Mauer (IMO) is far more untouchable in terms of marketing, hometown hero, not to mention the best catcher in baseball and also (IMO) the most valuable player to the Twins right now… so yes, it MUST be done.
So with that, what do you sign him to? what’s a “fair” market value deal to extend him with?
If we wait a year with Baker, he will have reached his arbitration years and will be less likely to take a deal with us. Now is the time to do it; but I doubt Smith is moving on this.
I didn’t think Santana and Hunter were untouchable; I thought we kept Hunter one year too long and while I had hoped we could sign Santana, I understand that the dollars didn’t end up working out.
It’s impossible to say what “fair” value is for Mauer. He’s sure to get $200M offers from New York and Boston if he hits free agency in 2 years. We can’t compete with numbers like that. I was thinking $100-150M for 6-8 years. We’d have him through his prime years until his early-mid thirties, and could re-evaluate then whether to add more years to the deal. I have no idea if Mauer would accept $150M to stay in Minnesota.
By the way, his “fair market value” in 2008 was somewhere between $26M and $30M. You just don’t find catchers who are as good as Joe Mauer. He was worth $22M-$27M in 2006, when he also won the batting title. He was worth $12M-17M in 2005 and 2007 when he was merely “awesome” as opposed to “transcendently awesome.”
His market value is somewhere in the $18M-25M per year range.
Two words:
Joe Mays
and a couple more:
Alan Anderson
and Baker did not have the years they did at his age.
I think that this is a make or break season for him. If he improves, it might make sense to give him a deal like Kubel’s covering his arbitration seasons plus an option year. That would have him under club control until he is 30 (2013) By then a lot of things will have been clearer…
Good point bringing up Mays, but look at it this way: Mays signed his deal after his breakout 2001 season, his third season in the league. Baker has already played in 4 different seasons. (Though Mays did have more IP than Baker.)
And Mays was never as good as Baker is. Not close, actually. Even in 2001, Mays’ K/9 was just 4.74, and his K/BB was 1.9; compared to Baker’s 2008: 7.36 K/9, 3.36 K/BB. Mays’ FIP was 4.27, while Baker’s was 3.79; in fact, while Baker has had one season with a FIP over 4 (2006 was a rough year), Mays NEVER HAD A FIP UNDER 4. And after he signed his contract, he only had 1 more season with a FIP under 5.
I don’t think Mays is a great comp for Baker.
Keep ‘em both. Baker’s steady and reliable, and I think we need to hang onto him as long as possible. The Twins really have no other option but to keep Mauer. If they end up not signing a free agent this year, the Twins should have plenty of money to make it happen.
It’s kind of sickening reading about Boston fans blithely convinced that Joe Mauer will be their catcher after 2010. Like he would automatically want to join their crap clubhouse and deal with Kevin Youkilis.
Did anyone see Sid Hartman on the cover of the wall street journal today? Apparently he was a Bernie Madoff client.
Definitely should keep them both, I’m just putting Mauer above Baker at this point on the priority list… need to get that done. Yeah, he would definitely get “Manny” money if he were a free agent today, $20-25M per year for 5-6 years… Not sure what kind of offer they’ll eventually give him, but it better be good…
Oh, I didn’t personally think Hunter was “untouchable” but a lot of “fans” did… that’s why I used that. I was glad to see him go actually, as much as some would frown upon me saying it.. oh well.
the Manny $ reference was a slight joke… considering he turned it down, twice!
Twins sign Baker to four-year, $15.25 million deal
[...] analysis of Baker’s value recommended that we should definitely sign him, and I calculated his value as somewhere between [...]