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Twins Upgrade the Back End of the Bullpen, Are Confused

Just hours after new owner Jim Pohlad assured the writers that the offseason isn’t over, and that the Twins were looking at upgrading third base and late inning relief, we receive news that they have indeed “upgraded” their late inning relief options by signing Luis Ayala.

He’s guaranteed $1.3M for 2009, with up to $575K in performance bonuses. Last season he had a 4.47 FIP in 75.2 IP, with 5.95 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9. While these secondary numbers are better than his traditional stats — 2-10 with a 5.75 ERA — I still don’t really understand this signing given that we were allegedly looking at other relief options that are all better than Ayala. Last year he was worth 0.0 wins above replacement, for a grand total of $0.1M in free market value.

In fact, he hasn’t been worth more than 0.2 wins over replacement since 2004 with the Expos.

This is the kind of guy you offer a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training; not a guy to whom you guarantee a roster spot and over a million dollars. He’s the definition of replacement level, and this signing demonstrates that the Twins either aren’t paying attention to the market or have absolutely no idea how to value relievers.

But at least we’ve added another warm body to an already-crowded back end of the bullpen. That should be worth more than a couple blown games this season.

2 comments

2 Comments so far

  1. thrylos98 February 6th, 2009 9:20 pm

    This could actually be a pretty decent singing. I analyzed to death here: http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2009/02/meet-and-greet-luis-ignacio-ayala.html

    just a simple reminder: Cliff Lee was 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and a 1.521 WHIP in 2007.

    There is potential there, but third base is a bigger problem and they haven’t address that…

  2. sirsean February 7th, 2009 12:55 am

    Cliff Lee had an absurd outlier season in 2008 that nobody could have seen coming. His previous stats had never indicated that he could have done anything like that.

    I don’t think it’s wise to sign guys who don’t seem very good in the hope that you somehow hit the lottery on them.

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