Offseason Recap
The offseason isn’t quite over yet, but the entire team is in Fort Myers, ready for Spring Training. Baseball season is right around the corner. And while there are still a few loose ends waiting to be tied up (or ignored), now seems like a good enough time to recap the Twins’ offseason.
The team has not offered Type B free agent Dennys Reyes a contract, expecting a sandwich round compensation pick in return for him; that pick has not materialized as nobody else is more excited about Reyes than we are. There are rumblings today that if Reyes lowers his salary demands that he might return to the Twins. Despite the universal feeling that Reyes entering a game virtually ends it, he was worth 0.6 wins last season and could be worth up to $2M. Breslow was worth 0.8 wins, and giving him Reyes’ job would probably work just fine, so retaining Reyes should not be a high priority item.
We signed Jason Kubel to a 2 year, $7M contract that buys out his remaining arbitration years, with an option for his first year of free agency. Statheads around the country laughed at our foolishness, because Kubel is worthless and in case you haven’t noticed is slow and can’t really play defense!!! But he’s a DH, and is the third best hitter on the team behind Mauer and Morneau. He was already under team control, and the Twins just gave him a little security in return for cost control. There’s nothing wrong with this deal, it’s now up to Kubel to start hitting the ball over the fence.
Nick Punto cashed in once again; he’s had two good seasons in his career — 2006 and 2008 — and both have netted him contracts. Other than that, he’s been mediocre at best; his only value in a non-contract year is the fact that he’s nominally capable of playing several positions. It’s a 2 year, $8M deal, which appears to be right around the market value for a utility infielder these days; that is, if you don’t also have someone like Tolbert on your team who can also play all the infield positions and not really hit all that well. There’ll be a lot of Punto-related anger this season and presumably questions about Smith’s abilities as a GM while Punto struggles mightily in 2009, but he’ll have a good 2010 as he tries to prove he’s worth another contract in two years. If his 2009 and 2010 are exactly as good as his 2005 and 2006 or his 2007 and 2008 were, the Twins will more than get their money back.
We released Mike Lamb with a year left on his contract, and are now paying him to sit on the bench for the Brewers. I know that happened during the season, but I want to point it out for this reason: he was the most expensive free agent acquisition in the history of the Twins franchise. In what sense is that not embarrassing?
We let Adam Everett walk in free agency, and he went to the Tigers. Everett came to the Twins along with a bunch of raving from the statistical community about his stellar defense. Unfortunately, he was injured most of the season and when he “toughed it up” and got onto the field, his arm was too weak to make the throw to first base. He was a cheap mistake, and letting him go is no big deal.
We did not sign any mediocre veteran starting pitchers. This is a huge step forward.
In addressing the hole at third base, we did not do very well. We balked at Casey Blake’s asking price and let him go to the Dodgers. We balked at Ty Wigginton’s demands for Blake-money, and let him sign with Baltimore for less-than-Lamb money. We balked at the Cubs’ demands for Mark Derosa, and let them trade him to the Indians for peanuts. We balked at Joe Crede’s demands to be paid like an All Star rather than an injury-riddled uncertainty. It appears the Twins are comfortable not spending money on third base and going with a Buscher/Harris platoon. They’re justifying this now by saying that Buscher is really hitting the cover off the ball in batting practice; I’ll point out that everyone said Buscher really hit the cover off the ball in Spring Training batting practice last year. It’s time for him to prove he deserves to be around.
The other major hole on the team was late inning relief; the team needs a reliable setup man to act as a bridge to Nathan. Unwilling to give up a draft pick, the Twins threw the names of all Type A (ie, “good”) free agents out the window and began hunting for bargains. It is not clear where exactly they were looking while bargain deals were being signed all winter by the likes of Affeldt and Nelson and others, but we finally settled on looking at Eric Gagne. We decided his demands for $3M were too much, and walked away from the table; days later he signed a minor league contract with the Brewers. We ended up signing Luis Ayala to a $1.3M deal that is apparently not guaranteed. It is completely unclear how Ayala will improve the late inning relief situation.
In order to make room for Ayala on the 40 man roster (a spot he may not even have a few weeks from now), the Twins put Bobby Korecky on waivers, and he was claimed by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Korecky had contributed -0.1 wins in 2008, but had had success in the minors and appeared to be ready to make some minor contributions. While it’s not a huge deal to lose a 29 year old non-prospect who’s performed below replacement level in the majors, it seems wrong to lose him for nothing.
And that’s where we are right now. Through all these moves, the team has improved by 0.7 wins (almost all the improvement is Mike Lamb being gone — he was worth -1.3 wins last year). That improvement is dwarfed by what could have been: +1.9 wins for Crede, +2.5 wins for Blake, +3.0 wins for Wigginton, +3.8 wins for Derosa. (Of course, Blake, Wigginton, and Derosa are almost sure to fail to live up to the expectations they set in 2008 and may never again reach those levels of performance. And Crede could either surpass those numbers or get injured and produce close to nothing. The Twins have never been one for big risks.)
Ultimately, the Twins are where they had hoped to be at the beginning of the offseason: hoping for continued excellence from Mauer and Morneau, a good bounceback season from Cuddyer and Liriano, and a strong step forward from several of the talented young players on the roster. It is by no means a bad place to be — there are plenty of teams where you can look over the roster and pick out a few guys who simply shouldn’t be on the team, and the Twins really aren’t there. We have guys who may not work out and may not deserve to be in the majors, but they haven’t proven it yet.
It was an offseason of standing in place and looking forward to the next season. I appreciate that, but it’s been going on long enough. It’s time to take this offseason to the glue factory and get to some baseball.
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“he was the most expensive free agent acquisition in the history of the Twins franchise.”
If that’s true, WOW.
Can’t wait for actual GAMES to start! Enough with the tabloid journalism from ESPN and SI- I want to hear about who’s hitting and pitching and catching well.
A couple of minor quibbles: I don’t have a problem with Buscher’s bat (if he doesn’t flame out in September again)- it’s his defense that causes so much ire. If he hits like he did last season with an improved glove, I will be happy. Hope he worked on that in the offseason.
And Punto will continue to draw anger from a few die-hards regardless of what he does, but I look for him to have a decent season as a shortstop with no expectations of hitting like a third baseman. If Gardy can bat him eighth or ninth most of the time, he’ll be fine.
Lots of ifs there. Time to cross our fingers and hope for the best.
That is true. This doesn’t count the Shannon Stewart re-signing, since he played for us for a little bit before he was re-signed, I guess it would be a contract extension. I only have a problem with Buscher’s bat against lefties, under no circumstances should he be batting against lefites. Unless a lot of people die.
I’m a Harris backer- I certainly hope he gets more playing time, including ALL chances against lefties. Buscher should be firmly planted on the bench in those situations.
Yes, Stewart’s contract was much larger, but he was not a free agent acquisition, we traded for him in mid-season and then extended him that offseason.
I also think the Harris/Bucscher platoon will be fine. Buscher isn’t great in the field, but he isn’t as bad as everyone thinks. Especially with Jesus reincarnate playing short, we probably don’t even need a thirdbaseman. Punto is like fred smoot, he covers 25% of the earth, the rest is covered by water. Oh wait, that isn’t true.
I think Buscher’s wild throws to first are like Punto’s dives into first- they don’t happen that often, but they make people absolutely crazy. (I’m personally more upset with wild throws to first because they can allow runs to score.)
That really depends on who’s doing the diving into first.
If Mauer or Morneau dove into first, that would be much, much worse than anyone throwing wild to first. If either of them breaks their thumb, the team is virtually crippled for six weeks.
I don’t care how much you like Punto, he’s simply not THAT valuable to the team. If he hurts himself it’s an inconvenience, not a tragedy.
I’d say that throwing wild to first is worse than Punto diving into first. You’re a major league infielder. Make a throw.
That’s why I specified PUNTO’s dives into first. Mauer or Morneau go down= season over. My point is, both Punto and Buscher have a specific flaw that fans can pinpoint, obsess over, and talk about whenever that player’s name is mentioned. Punto= sliding into first, Buscher= wild throws to first, Delmon= never takes a first pitch, Gomez= free swinger, Mauer= no home runs, etc.
I’m not Punto’s number-one fan, but if he plays his usual good defense with a batting line close to last season’s, we really can’t complain too much.
Yes, and there’s the rub. If Punto hits like he did last season, there’s nothing to complain about. Nothing wrong with a 100 OPS+ and average defense. Those players aren’t exactly easy to come by.
The problem is that he’s only had a season like that twice, and both of them were in contract years. It’s not exactly likely that his 2009 will be like his 2008 or his 2006. He’ll more likely be back to his 2007 or 2005 self. IE, one of the crappier players in the league.
Punto’s a crap shoot- but it’s not like he’s unable to be a good player. 50/50 chance he has a good year. And regardless of his batting line, Punto’s defense has been steadily above-average. I’m choosing to hope for the best, and I don’t think it’s too unrealistic.
(But Buscher had better not chuck any balls into the stands this season. It’s too painful to watch.)
I probably get just as much, if not more, pain from watching Punto fail to get bunts down. That is equally inexcsuable. Buscher hits well, but can’t make routine play on defense. Punto fields well, but can’t do the routine things at the plate. Neither is worse than the other, they are both maddening.
I suspect we’d all be easier on Punto but for Gardy’s insistence on playing him even when his BA is hovering near Rob Deer territory. If Punto hits .270+ and fields like he has been lately it will be a good year for him and for the Twins at SS. Let’s have it go that way!
I guess its not punto’s fault Gardy plays him even when he is in a severe slump. But the minute Kubel or Young or Gomez hit a little speed bump its “to the bench!” Its really not fair. Also, its not fair to use Rob Deer as a basis for comparison, because he hit a bunch of homers, even though his average was around the Mendoza line.