Fire Gardy

According to LEN3 Boof Bonser needs shoulder surgery.  Actually, it was a direct quote from Boof.  I don’t think this is an official/final decision, but the MRI didn’t come back looking good.  Neal says the Twins could (and probably will) encourage Boof to rehab first.  This never seems to be a good idea.  Might as well just clean out the shoulder and hope he can recover quickly. 

My theory has been that this might be good for Boof.  If he goes on the DL, doesn’t that mean he technically doesn’t have to make the team right off the bat in order for us to keep him?  We can stash him on the 15 day DL for a while, wait until he is 100% and then give him a chance to be an effective set-up guy.  As frustrating as it has been dealing with the ups and downs of Boof, I am in the camp the believes he can be a good relief pitcher.  I’d hate to lose him for nothing, and if hiding him on the DL for a few weeks (or months) in order to keep him for a second half push or something, so be it.  I’m not all that familiar with the minor league option rules, but does it take an option to send someone to the minors to rehab?  Or does that not count?  If we want to keep him would he have to go right from the DL to the major league roster, or would he have to go through waivers first? 

This could also be good for Humber.  While I think he is a long(er) shot to make the team, knocking one candidate out of the competition certainly helps him.  This story just further turns up the spotlight that is shining on the bullpen situation. We have discussed it alot here, so I don’t think we need to talk about it much more, but lets just summarize:

locks: Nathan, Crain, Guerrier, Breslow, Ayala

fighting for the two remaining spots: Mijares, Humber, and Jason Jones. 

One could argue that Ayala is not a lock, but he probably is.  Since the Twins are paying him lots of money (by our standards, and since he isn’t that good 1.3 mil is a lot).  The more I think about it, without Bonser, this isn’t much of a competition. Mainly because I don’t know much about Jason Jones, so I would assume that Mijares and Humber have a significant advantage to make the team.  This also assumes Gardy is going with a 12 man staff, which also isn’t a lock.  So to summarize the summary: I don’t know a damn thing.

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The common wisdom has always been that you build your team through pitching. Especially small- and mid-market teams must draft and develop their own pitching and build a team around that. That’s certainly the approach the Twins have taken over the years, and it’s finally coming to a head this year as the rotation consists solely of homegrown, young, cheap talent. But is the common wisdom right? Is it better to focus your organization’s developmental powers on pitching rather than hitting?

Victor Wang over at The Hardball Times takes a look, and comes to the conclusion that no, it is not better to focus on developing pitching. The crux of the issue is that top hitting prospects are much more likely to succeed than top pitching prospects (everyone acknowledges that prospects are, for the most part, a crapshoot — and that pitching prospects are even more of a crapshoot*), and therefore the overall value of a hitting prospect is considerably higher.

Wang looks at Matt Wieters and David Price. Right now these guys are #1 and #2 in all of baseball — and his methods value Wieters twice as highly as Price. In fact, the top 10 hitting prospects as a whole are twice as valuable as the top 10 pitching prospects.

* For example, in 2001, would you have guessed that Johan Santana would have ended up this much better than Kyle Lohse? At the time, these guys were the #1 and #2 of our Rotation Of The Future … and all the indications were that Lohse would be more successful than Santana. He had a better arm, better stuff, etc. But you can’t predict what’s going to happen with pitching. At all. If you could, we never would have gotten Johan from the Rule 5 draft in the first place.

Of course, the Twins buy into the old conventional wisdom that you simply must build your team by developing young pitchers. After all, it’s really expensive and risky to sign top pitching free agents, who can get injured at any time and leave you holding the bag (and writing them checks). But, as always happens, the times have changed. Top hitters are extremely hard to acquire and are very expensive*, and they bring along less risk of injury and decline than any pitcher.

* This offseason seems to reverse that trend, but I beg to differ. What this offseason shows is a) an overall unwillingness of teams to spend money during a huge influx of free agents (ie, decreasing demand and increasing supply, which will drive down prices), and b) an overall increase in the value teams are placing on defense, which decreases the money offered to good-bat no-glove corner outfielders in their thirties. I contend that good hitters who can also field their position remain extremely valuable.

It’s really no surprise that the Twins have been left behind by the shifting sands of time. And it’s no surprise that they’ve failed to adjust at all.

Last year we had four first round picks (ours, plus the compensation picks from losing Hunter and Silva to free agency). We used three of them on pitchers, and just one on a position player — who also happens to be a pitcher! We continue to focus most of our draft on pitching talent, and yet our top prospects are invariably the few hitters we decide to go for (Hicks, Revere, Ramos, Morales).

Perhaps it’s time to reverse our philosophy for the top end of the draft: focus on hitters and get as many as you can, take a shot on a few high upside pitchers, and fill out the ranks of our pitchers later in the draft (since once you go lower down the list the value of pitchers vs hitters balances out — it’s merely the top hitters vs the top pitchers where there’s a huge imbalance in value).

Do I think the Twins should do this? Absolutely. Do I think they actually will? Oh my, no.

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Well, now that we officially have Joe Crede for a very reasonable 2.5 million, where does he bat in the lineup.  I like having Morneau bat cleanup, and Mauer obviously isn’t moving from the 3-hole.  While I think Kubel is a good fit to bat fifth, I think its best to separate the lefties.  Plug Crede in fifth, slide Kubel to sixth.  I’d probably bat Young/Cuddyer seventh followed by Punto and Gomez.  I could see Gardy flip-flopping Crede with Young/Cuddyer, it probably depends on how everyone does in the spring. 

We have discussed the 25 man roster many times in this space.  So now with the addition of Crede, which player does not make the cut?  My guess is Buscher.  He really isn’t very useful as a bench player.  Harris will make the team because he can play several positions, same probably goes for Tolbert.  All five of the outfielders (Gomez, Span, Young, Cuddyer, Kubel) should be safe.  At this point it is probably a toss up between Tolbert and Buscher.  I konw Gardy loves him some scrappy utility infielders who can’t really hit, so Tolbert might have the edge to make the squad. What do you guys think?  Where will Gardy bat Crede, who gets bumped off the 25 man roster due to the Crede signing?

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The Twins have historically avoided Boras clients, because he drives up the cost of his players and is a very tough negotiator. Well, today we signed a Boras client — Joe Crede * — and really took it to Boras in the negotiating room.

* This news began to leak out late Friday night, and the Chicago Tribune was the first to call it that the deal was done. ESPN re-printed the article apparently without checking it; LEN3 and JoeC at the Star Tribune are a little more professional than that, however, and didn’t want to call the deal done until it was actually official. As I tweeted, I wasn’t buying it until we had the terms.

Conversations started with a base of $5M plus incentives, and Boras attempted to demand a base of $7M with incentives to push it over $11M. That’s where the numbers stood for weeks, and it was beginning to look like the Twins would simply walk away, unwilling to take a risk like that on an injured player coming off two back surgeries. Until yesterday, when Crede presumably called Boras and said “Listen, Ass-Face*, there’s only one team bidding, and I want to actually play baseball this year. Make it happen.”

Apparently when Boras’ leverage disappears, he’s not so tough any more. The base salary is $2.5M, with incentives that could push is up to $7M if Crede has enough plate appearances. The bonuses begin at 250 PA; if he’s hurt or ineffective, he won’t even get that high, and will be cheaper than Mike Lamb.

* Scott “Ass-Face” Boras is a pretty fitting nickname, I think.

It’s good to see that the market is taking back a little power in setting prices, rather than simply letting the supply side define what things will cost regardless of what they’re worth. But more importantly, this is great for the Twins. Excellent third base defense and a right handed power bat on a ridiculously team friendly contract, for just one year.

We just got a 2+ win player for the price of 0.5-1.5 wins. For the first time in recent memory, the Twins have made a free agent signing that actually makes sense when you actually think about it. (Although the projection systems seem to think Crede’s basically done, putting him somewhere in the 0-5-1 win range for 2009, I don’t buy it. I don’t think the Twins would have shown continued interest if they didn’t think he could play; while we did have a hole at third base, it’s not like we lacked a workable solution. I think he’s due for a good season — especially since he’ll be playing for his next contract.)

I’m now excited about the entire infield — with Crede and Punto* on the left side of the infield, nothing’s getting through. Casilla and Morneau are no slouches on the right side either. With the outfield set such that any combination of our four starters has both better than adequate offense and defense (whether it’s Young-Gomez-Span, Young-Gomez-Cuddyer, Young-Span-Cuddyer, Span-Gomez-Cuddyer, or any other combination, I feel pretty good about the outfield), the team suddenly looks really good.

* Did you know Punto’s zone rating was the best in the AL for any shortstop who logged 500+ innings? Neither did I. That’s awesome.

Frankly, it’s amazing the difference one player can make. Especially when the team was essentially missing exactly one thing: a right handed power bat at third base. It’s just gravy that he’s got an excellent glove and is practically free.

Alright everyone. The Twins have made their splash! The season can start now!

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Justin Morneau is awesome.

“I’ve told Joe [Mauer], if he ever leaves me, I’ll never speak to him again,” Morneau said. “We’ve got to get him signed to an extension.”

That is a great sentiment, and hopefully Morneau’s long contract and ever-growing clubhouse influence go a long way towards convincing the front office to start throwing sacks full of money in Mauer’s direction.

Also, does anyone else find it slightly amusing that Mauer’s former roommate phrased it that way?

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Sirsean and I were discussing the other day the importance of Rick Anderson to the pitching staff.  We decided it was totally overrated.  Now, don’t get me wrong, Anderson is a great pitching coach.  However, we feel that he is getting too much credit for the performance of our pitchers.  At least recently.  The five current starters were studs in the minors and continued that success in the majors.  Anderson does a fine job preparing them for games (much like Dave Duncan does for the Cards, for those of you who read “Three Nights in August”).  But when it comes to pitcher development, all of that is done by the minor league instructors.  The Twins have some of the best in the business in that regard.  Everyone says “Andy (a terrible nickname by the by, its not so much a nickname as it is just a different name) will work his magic on so and so.  When has he ever done this.  Sidney Ponson? Ramon Ortiz? Livan Hernandez? The only old pitchers the Twins have had in the Gardy years that have been effective have been Rick Reed and Kenny Rogers.  Both were above average when we got them, and just kept doing what they had been doing.  Now, I’m sure developing pitchers is a small part of what a major league pitching coach does.  So I’m by no means calling for Anderson to be fired, but can we stop calling him a pitching God?  He pours over scouting reports with pitchers, and sets up a game plan for how they can use what they have to attack hitters.  Oddly, he seems to preach groundballs, when most of our starters are extreme fly ball pitchers.  When he comes along a pitcher who is more of a strikeout “thrower” (Matt Garza) instead of a control “pitcher” (Kevin Slowey) he doesn’t know what to do.  He tries to force everyone into his mold, even if that is not where the pitcher’s strengths lie.  It didn’t work with Garza or Lohse.  Everyone says it was because they are head cases (you can probably include me in that group).  I do not think its fair to blame a player for getting frustrated when a coach is trying to change his approach this late (late being once he reaches the majors) in his career. 

I am very happy with our current rotation, and how they play the game.  Lets start giving credit to the Cliburn’s and all the other minor league coaches, in addition to the credit Anderson gets.  We should also stop assuming Anderson can work his “magic” on any crappy veteran pitcher we sign (RA Dickey, Luis Ayala, etc.) you can only coach up so much talent. 

I’m sure everyone is thinking “Where in the hell do you get off criticizing the best pitching coach in the AL?” Fair point.  I just wanted to bring this topic to light.  Who are some of the other “projects” Anderson has worked on.  Where has he succeeded and where has he failed? Silva is one that comes to mind where he both succeeded and failed.

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The offseason isn’t quite over yet, but the entire team is in Fort Myers, ready for Spring Training. Baseball season is right around the corner. And while there are still a few loose ends waiting to be tied up (or ignored), now seems like a good enough time to recap the Twins’ offseason.

The team has not offered Type B free agent Dennys Reyes a contract, expecting a sandwich round compensation pick in return for him; that pick has not materialized as nobody else is more excited about Reyes than we are. There are rumblings today that if Reyes lowers his salary demands that he might return to the Twins. Despite the universal feeling that Reyes entering a game virtually ends it, he was worth 0.6 wins last season and could be worth up to $2M. Breslow was worth 0.8 wins, and giving him Reyes’ job would probably work just fine, so retaining Reyes should not be a high priority item.

We signed Jason Kubel to a 2 year, $7M contract that buys out his remaining arbitration years, with an option for his first year of free agency. Statheads around the country laughed at our foolishness, because Kubel is worthless and in case you haven’t noticed is slow and can’t really play defense!!! But he’s a DH, and is the third best hitter on the team behind Mauer and Morneau. He was already under team control, and the Twins just gave him a little security in return for cost control. There’s nothing wrong with this deal, it’s now up to Kubel to start hitting the ball over the fence.

Nick Punto cashed in once again; he’s had two good seasons in his career — 2006 and 2008 — and both have netted him contracts. Other than that, he’s been mediocre at best; his only value in a non-contract year is the fact that he’s nominally capable of playing several positions. It’s a 2 year, $8M deal, which appears to be right around the market value for a utility infielder these days; that is, if you don’t also have someone like Tolbert on your team who can also play all the infield positions and not really hit all that well. There’ll be a lot of Punto-related anger this season and presumably questions about Smith’s abilities as a GM while Punto struggles mightily in 2009, but he’ll have a good 2010 as he tries to prove he’s worth another contract in two years. If his 2009 and 2010 are exactly as good as his 2005 and 2006 or his 2007 and 2008 were, the Twins will more than get their money back.

We released Mike Lamb with a year left on his contract, and are now paying him to sit on the bench for the Brewers. I know that happened during the season, but I want to point it out for this reason: he was the most expensive free agent acquisition in the history of the Twins franchise. In what sense is that not embarrassing?

We let Adam Everett walk in free agency, and he went to the Tigers. Everett came to the Twins along with a bunch of raving from the statistical community about his stellar defense. Unfortunately, he was injured most of the season and when he “toughed it up” and got onto the field, his arm was too weak to make the throw to first base. He was a cheap mistake, and letting him go is no big deal.

We did not sign any mediocre veteran starting pitchers. This is a huge step forward.

In addressing the hole at third base, we did not do very well. We balked at Casey Blake’s asking price and let him go to the Dodgers. We balked at Ty Wigginton’s demands for Blake-money, and let him sign with Baltimore for less-than-Lamb money. We balked at the Cubs’ demands for Mark Derosa, and let them trade him to the Indians for peanuts. We balked at Joe Crede’s demands to be paid like an All Star rather than an injury-riddled uncertainty. It appears the Twins are comfortable not spending money on third base and going with a Buscher/Harris platoon. They’re justifying this now by saying that Buscher is really hitting the cover off the ball in batting practice; I’ll point out that everyone said Buscher really hit the cover off the ball in Spring Training batting practice last year. It’s time for him to prove he deserves to be around.

The other major hole on the team was late inning relief; the team needs a reliable setup man to act as a bridge to Nathan. Unwilling to give up a draft pick, the Twins threw the names of all Type A (ie, “good”) free agents out the window and began hunting for bargains. It is not clear where exactly they were looking while bargain deals were being signed all winter by the likes of Affeldt and Nelson and others, but we finally settled on looking at Eric Gagne. We decided his demands for $3M were too much, and walked away from the table; days later he signed a minor league contract with the Brewers. We ended up signing Luis Ayala to a $1.3M deal that is apparently not guaranteed. It is completely unclear how Ayala will improve the late inning relief situation.

In order to make room for Ayala on the 40 man roster (a spot he may not even have a few weeks from now), the Twins put Bobby Korecky on waivers, and he was claimed by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Korecky had contributed -0.1 wins in 2008, but had had success in the minors and appeared to be ready to make some minor contributions. While it’s not a huge deal to lose a 29 year old non-prospect who’s performed below replacement level in the majors, it seems wrong to lose him for nothing.

And that’s where we are right now. Through all these moves, the team has improved by 0.7 wins (almost all the improvement is Mike Lamb being gone — he was worth -1.3 wins last year). That improvement is dwarfed by what could have been: +1.9 wins for Crede, +2.5 wins for Blake, +3.0 wins for Wigginton, +3.8 wins for Derosa. (Of course, Blake, Wigginton, and Derosa are almost sure to fail to live up to the expectations they set in 2008 and may never again reach those levels of performance. And Crede could either surpass those numbers or get injured and produce close to nothing. The Twins have never been one for big risks.)

Ultimately, the Twins are where they had hoped to be at the beginning of the offseason: hoping for continued excellence from Mauer and Morneau, a good bounceback season from Cuddyer and Liriano, and a strong step forward from several of the talented young players on the roster. It is by no means a bad place to be — there are plenty of teams where you can look over the roster and pick out a few guys who simply shouldn’t be on the team, and the Twins really aren’t there. We have guys who may not work out and may not deserve to be in the majors, but they haven’t proven it yet.

It was an offseason of standing in place and looking forward to the next season. I appreciate that, but it’s been going on long enough. It’s time to take this offseason to the glue factory and get to some baseball.

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Another reason to get angry.

Bobby Korecky is gone. For nothing. He was selected off waivers by the Diamondbacks, which “conveniently” opens up a space on the 40 man roster for Luis Ayala.

I suppose Korecky was probably last on the list of relievers on the bubble (Bonser, Humber, Breslow, Mijares, Korecky), but I don’t see any reason to just throw him away in favor of a proven bad pitcher like Ayala, who will cost three times as much.

Korecky didn’t actually do all that well in the majors last season, and was worth -0.1 wins. Meanwhile, Ayala was worth +0.1 despite his struggles. And Ayala is projected to have a better FIP than Korecky in 2009.

But I’ve always said that doing nothing is better than doing something stupid. I’m not really happy about this move. It doesn’t seem like it helps the team at all, and we lose a valuable asset (an arm that can get outs) without getting anything in return. That’s the worst kind of move.

Can anyone think of a reason this is an acceptable move?

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Ah ha! Remember all those times I harped on the fact that other teams and agents seem to be out to screw the Twins? Well, it continues to happen.

After declining a $3M offer from the Twins, Eric Gagne turned around and signed a minor league contract with the Brewers. A non-guaranteed deal.

Are you kidding me?

This is not a case of the Twins “failing to spend enough money,” or being bad at negotiations. This is simply a case of an agent and a player going out of their way to take an inferior deal from a less successful, inferior team rather than deal with the Twins.

Is there really anyone that thinks the Brewers are going anywhere this year after losing Sabathia and Sheets? This is not a case of a player choosing to go with the team it thinks has a better shot at the playoffs.

This is, simply, a bunch of crap. Why did we have to pay $1.3M for piece of crap Luis Ayala and guarantee him a spot on the team, when we could have spent <$1M on piece of crap Eric Gagne (with the benefit of a modicum of upside) and not guarantee him a spot on the team? It had nothing to do with a failing on the part of the front office.

Maybe it’s just me, like everything else seems to be, but this is infuriating.

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This morning we learned that Liriano is considering skipping the WBC in favor of spending as much time as he can with the Twins and getting ready for the season.

Overall, I think this is great news. However, that news is followed by this disastrous line:

Liriano said no one has put pressure on him to pull out of the tournament, but he’s definitely thinking about it. He said he will speak with the Twins to get their thoughts.

Are you kidding me? Why in blazes has there been no pressure put on him? Are people too afraid to be accused of being anti-patriotism or something?

Seriously. Players are leaving their teams, who pay them millions of dollars, and enter into a situation in which they can easily get injured. Just for the sake of some flag waving. And for the Cubans to trot out a crappy old lineup based not on talent but on loyalty to the government. And for Japan to rub our faces in their crappy league rules with plenty of major league talent that should be making real money here in America.

Forget this. When Liriano talks to the Twins, they’d better put some pressure on him — subtle if possible, less so if necessary — to stay the hell away from the WBC and within sight of Rick Anderson for the entire spring.

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