Fire Gardy

Well, we have spent most of the offseason debating who will start where, who will make the team, etc. So this preview seems a little unnecessary, but with the addition of Ayala, and the excitement of baseball in the air, lets do it. 

As everyone knows, pretty much 22 of 25 roster spots are locked.  Barring injury or freak under-performance the only battles will be for the two remaining bullpen spots, and the 4th bench spot.

Pitcher locks: Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, Breslow, Guerrier, Ayala, Crain, Nathan (10).  This leaves two spots up for grabs.  The guys fighting for the last two spots will be: Bonser, Humber, Mijraes, Korecky.  If the Twins hadn’t signed Ayala, I would say Mijares would be a lock.  Bonser’s recent shoulder trouble could complicate matters, but my guess is Boof and Humber make the team with Mijares being on the first flight out at the first sign of trouble. 

Position Player Locks: Mauer, Redmond, Morneau, Casilla, Punto, Buscher, Harris, Cuddyer, Span, Young, Kubel, and Gomez.  (12).  That leaves one bench spot up for grabs.  The favorite here has to be Matt Tolbert.  He endeared himself to Twins fans and Gardy last year by trying really hard.  He is valuable in that he can play many positions in the infield, which is great when we have 12 pitchers and a third base platoon.  Harris will be able to backup at several other spots too. 

So there you have it.  Barring anything out of the ordinary, there are three roster spots up for grabs.  We have two young pitchers who are out of options and might make the team because of that.   I think they should both be given a shot, since I hate trading away pitching sight unseen.  However, if we can get something good in return for one of them, do it. 

Notice how I didn’t mention Joe Crede?  If we do end up with him, I could see Buscher moving into the “fighting with Tolbert for a spot” category.  Since Harris is more valuable than Buscher as a bench player.  Thats all you get on Crede.   Does anyone have a drastically different take on this?  Or is this pretty much how everyone thinks things will pan out?

 

6 comments

Speaking of Delmon Young, I think we just found out why he’s taking whatever endorsement deals he can find before his stardom reaches anywhere beyond FireGardy.com … the Twins decided to jack him out of a bit of salary.

Under the collective bargaining agreement, the Twins had a right to cut Delmon Young’s salary by 20 percent this year. Including his pro-rated signing bonus, he made $1,440,000 last year, so the least the Twins could pay him was $1,152,000.

On Thursday, the Twins signed Young for that amount, exactly.

While I personally think it’s a bunch of crap that non-free-agent players can only take a 20% pay cut, and that we’re responsible for pro-rating the signing bonus Tampa Bay decided to give him, and that he was worth (negative!)$2.4M in 2008 (scroll to the bottom), this isn’t exactly the kind of thing that’ll make a player happy.

Given that it was a bit of a struggle for him last year, and he didn’t live up to our expectations, I understand that we wouldn’t exactly want to give him a raise. But given that everyone else in the entire f’ing league gets a raise, I can also see why he might be a little pissed off that we decided to give him the absolute minimum we were allowed to. Maybe splitting the difference would have worked a bit better? Seriously, we’re talking about $150K for a team that’s $20M below its budget.

And by doing what we can to save a couple of bucks, we risk awakening the thoughts in Delmon’s head that he formerly stated about Tampa Bay; his stated plan to “do [his] six and bolt.”

Hopefully this pisses Delmon off enough that he hits a hell of a lot better this year, but not enough that he wants to leave the Twins at his first opportunity. I don’t want our players counting the days until they can leave.

3 comments

I don’t like talking about steroids any more than the next guy, but there’s a certain climate right now, regarding performance enhancing drugs. You really want to keep them at arm’s length. This wouldn’t be the best time to, say, get yourself linked to an absurdly sketchy drug. Right?

Someone needs to tell Delmon that now is not the best time for this. And what the hell is Quercetin?

And … wouldn’t this mysterious drug company want to connect themselves to a player who could, you know, hit or run?

2 comments

Hello again everyone!

I was suffering through an all-company meeting all week, and didn’t have access to my computer. Little happened Twins-wise this week, so we didn’t really miss out on anything. But I know (or, more accurately, assume) that there are millions (dozens) of you out there desperately wondering what exactly those jerks over at Fire Gardy are thinking these days.

Well, to be honest, not all that much at the moment. But fortunately, there’s a little bit of news that the Twins continue to claim that they’re not suffering from the “downturn” in the “economy” (whatever that is/means).

While they point out that they do fear a drop in walk-up ticket sales, they constantly brag about the record season ticket sales. Boo ya, you fans! We’re getting your money even if you don’t feel like coming to the games!

Well, that $20M profit the Twins banked last season when they weren’t coming anywhere close to their stated “goal” of spending 52% of revenue on player salaries has been spent well: we signed Luis Ayala and are doing our best to short-shrift Joe Crede! We’re totally not stealing from you.

Well, I just want to take this time to point out that the revenues of Fire Gardy have also managed not to crater during this economic downturn; in fact, we’ve managed to hit our revenue projections right on the nose. And we, like the Twins, promise not to spend that money on signing Joe Crede.

Sorry for the substance-free week, everyone. It’s the last week before spring training, and everyone’s in hiding before they have to report and pretend that they’ve actually been trying to stay in shape over the excruciatingly long offseason. (By the way, whose idea was it to leave three months between the end of the World Series and the beginning of Spring Training? I would like them to buy a Free Jason Kubel t-shirt, so I can find out their address and kick their anti-American face.)

You heard me. Go Twins.

1 comment

Well, didn’t see that coming.  Apparently A-Rod tested positive for PEDs in 2003, the year he won the MVP.  I always group A-Rod in the “Griffey, Manny, Big Hurt” category.  An out of this world talent who didn’t need steroids to be better than everyone.  He was never oddly giant like Bonds, McGwire, or Sosa, he could just flat out hit.  We are kind of isolated from the whole roids issue as Twins fans, mainly because players who use roids tend to be a)expensive, and b) Boras clients.  

I don’t hate A-Rod as much as most people.  So what if he is highly paid.  If I could convince someone to pay me 25 mil a year, I’d do it in a heartbeat.  It seemed like all his off the field weirdness (madonna, creepy obbsession with jeter, etc.) didn’t start until he moved to the Bronx.  I guess this just goes to show you, that everyone was doing it. It starts to make me question the rest of the elite hitters currently in the game.  Especially the power hitters.  Mauer clearly isn’t on steroids because I think the odds of him hitting 20 homers in a season are about the same as the odds of me doing so.  Morneau is from Canada, so he is fueled by maple syrup and beer. Is there anyone on the twins that you feel is on steroids or is likely to start.  Delmon comes to mind for some reason.  I could see him buckling under the pressure of “No. 1 pick”.

14 comments

Just hours after new owner Jim Pohlad assured the writers that the offseason isn’t over, and that the Twins were looking at upgrading third base and late inning relief, we receive news that they have indeed “upgraded” their late inning relief options by signing Luis Ayala.

He’s guaranteed $1.3M for 2009, with up to $575K in performance bonuses. Last season he had a 4.47 FIP in 75.2 IP, with 5.95 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9. While these secondary numbers are better than his traditional stats — 2-10 with a 5.75 ERA — I still don’t really understand this signing given that we were allegedly looking at other relief options that are all better than Ayala. Last year he was worth 0.0 wins above replacement, for a grand total of $0.1M in free market value.

In fact, he hasn’t been worth more than 0.2 wins over replacement since 2004 with the Expos.

This is the kind of guy you offer a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training; not a guy to whom you guarantee a roster spot and over a million dollars. He’s the definition of replacement level, and this signing demonstrates that the Twins either aren’t paying attention to the market or have absolutely no idea how to value relievers.

But at least we’ve added another warm body to an already-crowded back end of the bullpen. That should be worth more than a couple blown games this season.

2 comments

Last week, a rumor about signing Scott Baker to a long term contract came and went without much fanfare.

“I have definitely entertained the idea of it.” Baker said recently of a possible multi-year deal. “I like this place. I like playing here. I like the coaching staff and obviously we have a great clubhouse. It’s kind of up to them, but I definitely have thought about it.”

Okay, it’s up to the Twins. Would they do something like that?

“Historically, we’ve done deals with players as they get to two, three and four years of service time,” Antony said. “And I think that’s something we’ll continue to do.”

Yes, they have. Morneau, Kubel, Mauer, Santana, Crain. But would Scott Baker be worth a long term deal right now? They say that the last year before they hit arbitration is the best year to ink them to a deal, so you can buy out their arbitration years and give them some security when they had none, but before they’re sniffing free agency just around the corner. That’s where Baker is right now, so let’s see what a contract would look like.

In 2007, Baker’s free market value was $11.7M, and in 2008 it was $15.4M. That’s what a pitcher who consistently puts up good numbers is worth. (And I’m looking at FIP here, not W and ERA which are much more dependent on teammates.) His 2007 FIP was 3.89; in 2008 it was 3.79. His numbers are consistent, and good. So let’s say his market value is somewhere between 2007 and 2008, and stays there until he’s 30 (three years from now), at which point he will start to decline at a typical rate of 10% per year.

So his market values for the next four years, let’s say, are $12M, $12M, $12M, $10.8M. That is absolutely not the contract we should give him; that’s what we would pay if these weren’t his arbitration years. The general guideline for arbitration salaries is that they are an increasing percentage of the player’s market value: 20%/40%/80% or 40%/60%/80% in the three arbitration years. When signing a player through his last pre-arbitration years, some teams get 20/20/40/80, others get 20/40/60/80 or something along those lines.

If the Twins got a team-friendly 20/20/40/80 contract, Baker’s yearly salary would be $2.4M, $2.4M, $4.8M, $8.6M. If it were the more player-friendly 20/40/60/80 deal, his contract would look like $2.4M, $4.8M, $7.2M, $8.6M. So we’re probably looking at something in the range between 4/$18M and 4/$23M for a fair deal. Toss one or two $10-12M team options on the end with $2-3M buyouts, and you’ve probably got yourself a deal.

The problem with doing this for the Twins is:

1. Baker could get hurt.
2. This is what they’d be paying him if he doesn’t improve from where he is, so why give him the long term deal?
3. Security breeds lack of motivation in some cases.

If Baker continues to improve as a pitcher, he’ll earn more than $23M over his arbitration years. If he gets hurt or craps out, he gets nothing. The security of $20M would probably be enough to get him to sign the deal and help out the team.

I think the Twins should get this done and lock up the most consistent pitcher on the team through his arbitration years. Not only would it probably help the team and have minimal downside (Baker does not have an injury history and has a simple, non-violent delivery), but it would send the right message to the fans and the players.

What do you think about a possible Baker extension?

13 comments

So the Twins have come to an agreement with Guerrier, avoiding arbitration.

First, let’s go ahead and assess the value of the deal. They met in the midpoint of their posted salaries, and Guerrier will be paid $1.475M in 2009. Will he be worth that?

Well, in 2008 he was worth -0.4 wins above replacement (ie, we would have been better off murdering him and having an average AA pitcher take over his innings … ouch). In dollar terms, that was -$1.9M. Certainly less that what we’re paying for in 2009. In 2007, however, he had the best season of his career, worth +0.9 wins, or $3.7M. (+1 win is extremely good for a middle reliever — it almost never happens.)

In 2006, he was worth +0.1 wins, which was $0.5M on the free market. According to FanGraphs, his projected FIP and IP will be right in line with his 2006 season (well below 2007, but well above 2008). They’re essentially saying Guerrier will be about replacement level in 2009. Which means we absolutely shouldn’t be paying him $1.475M; except that he only has to be worth +0.3 wins for us to get what we paid for, and that’s not a huge jump from his projection. I’d say this deal is roughly market value, and that the Twins are probably expecting Guerrier to bounce back to around his 2006 level of performance. Guerrier was probably expecting to get paid for his 2007 level of performance, and hopefully he isn’t too miffed that it didn’t happen.

Okay … now I want to say something about the fact that the Twins actually struck a deal before going to arbitration. This was a case they probably could have won if they wanted to, given how terrible Guerrier was last year. But winning or losing in arbitration isn’t really as important as going there in the first place. In arbitration, teams make a case about why a player sucks and is worthless, to an impartial arbitrator, and the player has to sit there and listen. It’s not exactly good for relations between the player and the team.

Well, the Twins are one of the organizations that likes to avoid that for players it considers part of the organizational family, if you will. They gave Morneau a contract last year to avoid arbitration, meanwhile they didn’t stop negotiating a longer term deal; basically, they just didn’t want to take him to arbitration because he’s part of the team’s future. The same is true for most players. Kyle Lohse, for example, went to arbitration every year he was eligible for it. Surely, Matt Garza would have also. 

If the Twins don’t like you, they’ll take you to arbitration and tell you how much they don’t want you around and how little they think you’re worth. If they do like you, they’ll make sure they get you signed before that happens.

So I think the act of signing Guerrier is more important than the actual dollar amount. It means the Twins think he can bounce back and be useful, and that they probably want him to stick around once he hits free agency.

We’ll see if he’s still got an arm by then.

2 comments

Remember when we were clamoring for the Twins to acquire a strong hitter at the expense of a bit of fielding? That we’d rather have a big time slugger in left field than a sure handed weakling like Jason Tyner. Well, we may have been a little mistaken. From Baseball Prospectus:

STAT OF THE DAY Worst Defensive Teams of 2008 Team, PADE Reds, -3.83 Rangers, -3.40 Pirates, -3.17 Twins, -2.51 Mariners, -2.44

The Twins had been one of the better defending teams in the league for several years, until 2008 rolled around and we slotted Delmon Young into left and Lamb/Buscher into third and Brendan Harris into a middle infield spot. End result? We had the fourth worst defense in baseball.

PADE stands for “Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.” Defensive efficiency is a simple measure of the percentage of balls in play that the defense converts into outs — this, after all, is the most important thing about a defense.

The statistic is then “park adjusted” to make Fenway look impossible to play in, thus inflating the statistics of the Red Sox and all their players.  Other than Fenway, though, the park adjustment tends to normalize between parks, so we have a way to compare teams that have easy home fields to teams that don’t.

I think it’s telling that none of the other teams in the bottom five even sniffed the playoffs. These are bad teams, and bad teams have the worst defenses. Frankly, the Twins’ luck with men on base essentially balanced out the poor defense.

Something I feel the need to question regarding defensive efficiency is that it ignores the contribution of the pitcher. A pitcher who induces a lot of popups will make his defense look good when read by PADE; conversely, a pitcher who gives up nothing but hard line drives to the gaps will make his defense look awful.

And we had Livan Hernandez on our team for much of the year.

So, with the rest of the league deciding that defense is actually important, the Twins picked something of an inopportune time to sacrifice their defense. But I think Delmon will be a little better this year, and subbing Cuddyer in for him every now and then will probably help. Keeping Harris out of the middle infield and getting rid of Lamb will probably also help. And Livan is gone, so no more batting practice for our opponents.

Hopefully that balances out the impending decline in hitting with men in scoring position.

5 comments

In a post that’s sure to angry up the blood of many fans, JoeC points out the Twins’ plans for the rest of the offseason.

In speaking with Twins officials this week, they seem about 90 percent certain there won’t be any notable changes to the roster before spring training. Obviously, we’ll let you know if that changes.

No surprise there, nor is there anything wrong with that. As I’ve been saying all along.

The Twins are convinced it’s better to do nothing than to do something silly, just for the sake of making a move. They insist other teams have been asking for too much in trades.

It’s definitely better to do nothing than to do something still just for the sake of doing something. I often think fans just want the team to make a move so they can criticize its foolishness.

And I’ve also pointed out numerous times that teams think, for some reason, that they can get more out of the Twins than they can get out of any other team. And that if they’re going to make a trade and get a less-than-outstanding haul, that they’d rather do it with another team than with the Twins. I don’t know why this is, but it continues.

They’re convinced their internal bullpen options (Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier, Boof Bonser, etc.) are just as likely to pan out as late-inning setup guys as the remaining free agents.

Due to the volatility of relievers, this could very well be true. Of course, by the same logic, Crain/Mijares/Guerrier/Bonser might all fail miserably this season. But so might anyone we pick up and pay big money for. I still fail to see any reason to pay significant dollars for relievers, despite how important a good bullpen is to a team’s success.

I’d say the best chance of a move would be a Joe Crede signing, but I keep hearing he’s at 75 percent, and the Twins don’t want to shell out $5 million in guaranteed money (plus incentives) unless they know he’s healthy.

If they can get the asking price down in guaranteed money, or if Crede would get closer to 90-95 percent, they might have a match. If not, they’ll move forward with their third base platoon of Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher.

I think that’s interesting; at least they’ve given a legitimate reason for not wanting to sign Crede, which is more than they did re: Wigginton. But I’m of the opinion that the team that decides to take a chance on Crede isn’t going to be disappointed. Hopefully when he gets up to 90% he’ll prefer coming to the Twins to stick it in the face of the hated White Sox. But I wouldn’t count on it.

Slow news day, but at least the Strib is spouting something that makes sense, rather than some inanity about groundskeepers or Jarrod Washburn.

2 comments