Fire Gardy

I know I’ve been harping on the fact that the Twins are a pitching-rich organization lately, and I also know that all of are very familiar with our young pitchers. But tonight, FanGraphs has a post up about the Twins organization’s cache of pitching talent.

Aside from pointing out that all our pitchers are 27 or younger, they bring up an “even more talented” young pitcher who’ll be in AAA this year. Anthony Swarzak. I’ve been high on this guy for a couple of years now, and he’s still just 23 years old despite having been drafted in 2004.

He has a 94 MPH fastball and a plus curveball, and is working on his changeup.

Of course, Swarzak was suspended last year for drug use — don’t worry, it was just “recreational,” not performance enhancing — and that could be an indication that he has makeup problems.

Given that teams are starting to get enamored by Swarzak’s talent, and that young pitching is becoming more and more valuable around the league, it might be time to start thinking about trading Swarzak away. While we might prefer to trade Perkins and promote Swarzak, teams tend to prefer “potential” over “has struggled thus far in the majors,” so we might get more for Swarzak than Perkins.

You might question the wisdom of trading away some of our almost-major-league-ready talent from AAA, as the White Sox have foolishly been doing, but it’s more than possible because of the aforementioned young rotation. Given the fact that our entire rotation is under team control for the next 2-5 years, we can unload some guys from AAA this year (and next year, and the next) while we wait for the next wave to arrive: guys like Jeff Manship and Shooter Hunt and the rest of the big guns striking everyone out in A ball.

It’s a debatable situation, but we should all remember that most teams don’t get to debate something like this.

With a talented, young starting rotation already established at the Major League level, the Twins have time to be patient with Swarzak and allow him to mature in the minors – both as a pitcher and as a person. Many organizations in baseball would love to have that luxury.

Well said. Whether we keep Swarzak or not, our pitching pipeline is still the envy of the league.

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This morning, Buster Olney went over all the teams in the majors and highlighted their positions of interest. For most teams, he focused on what they need to add, or what’s going to be a problem for them (ie, the Yankees are starting Melky Cabrera at CF, and the Red Sox have Varitek at C). But, for the Twins, it was a slightly different story.

Minnesota Twins: Outfield, designated hitter Twins GM Bill Smith broke down the competition for playing time in an e-mail: “We have five established players for three outfield spots and the DH – Michael Cuddyer,Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel, Denard Span and Delmon Young. They give us depth and versatility … three right-handed hitters and two left-handed hitters, and a combination of speed and power. [Manager Ron Gardenhire] will make the decisions on lineups and positions. It poses a challenge to keep everyone happy and playing, but it also gives us depth in the case of an injury.”

This is nothing we haven’t heard (and discussed) before. But I think it’s telling that the team’s biggest “problem” this offseason is that we have a bunch of good players and no extremely pressing needs.

“We have depth in case of injury” is not a problem for the fans to get worked up about.

“We have a handedness-based platoon at third base” is not a problem to get worked up about.

“We’re not going to get offensive production out of our shortstop” is not a problem to get worked up about. (Just about nobody gets offense from SS. Don’t sweat Punto that much as long as he’s holding his own. He doesn’t have to be Joe Mauer to be successful.)

“We have at least five starters who we want in the rotation” is not a problem.

“We’re not wasting money” is not a problem.

So our main problem, according to Olney, is that we have one too many OF/DH players that should be starting, and that we have to trust Gardy’s decision-making. (Based on playing time for Delmon and Kubel, I am very afraid of having to trust Gardy’s decision-making, given that he hates both these guys.)

What about the White Sox?

Chicago White Sox: Starting pitcher The White Sox are counting on Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd to man three-fifths of their rotation, and they like what they’ve seen out of Bartolo Colon. But they need someone to emerge at the back end.

So they’re short a starter and are relying on Bartolo Colon to actually pitch well for a full season. You’re kidding, right? Having 3/5 of a rotation is a pretty significant problem; it wouldn’t be so bad if they had anyone in the high minors, but Danks and Floyd were just harvested and they’ve unloaded all their pitching prospects in the last year or two to acquire Swisher and Quentin. Especially in their home park, they’re going to be struggling with run prevention 2 out of every 5 days.

Or the Tigers?

Detroit Tigers: Starting rotation Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said recently that he feels good about the depth he has in starting pitchers and could conceivably have so much that he can make a trade. Among those in the running for the No. 4 and No. 5 slots in the rotation: Armando Galarraga, Zach Miner and a supposedly slimmer Dontrelle Willis.

Galarraga’s pretty good, but the Tigers and their $120M+ payroll will be relying on Zach Miner and Dontrelle Willis to hold down a spot in their rotation. Is Dave Dombrowski the only person who thinks that’s going to go well (or is, in some sense, considered “depth”)? Or has someone else lost their mind?

Cleveland Indians: Starting pitcher The back end of the Indians’ rotation could be a problem area, but the Indians don’t lack for candidates behind No. 1 starter Cliff Lee and No. 2 starter Fausto Carmona –Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes and David Huff are all going to get chances to distinguish themselves in spring training.

Behind the top two in their rotation, they have a bunch of spare parts that will be fighting it out. And does anyone really think Cliff Lee is going to win another Cy Young award?

This is why I’m not freaking out. All the other contenders in our division are struggling to find starting pitchers, while we’re pitching-rich. And pitching is hugely important.

Compared to “We only have three starters,” or “We only have four starters,” or “We only have two starters,” well, “We have four outfielders” just doesn’t sound so bad.

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Nick and Nick have an interesting take on the whole Washburn nonsense today.  The suggest that if the Twins are so desperate to sign a pitcher with “veteran” in front of his name, they should go after Ben Sheets.  I like the idea.  Although I don’t think they will, because our rotation is set, but lets think about this.  Washburn is set to make 10.3 million next year.  If we were to trade for him we would have to pick up at least half of that.  Considering that Washburn is terrible and has no upside, what is the point?  Haven’t they learned from the Sidney Ponson’s of the world?  The closer we get to pitchers and catcher, the cheaper someone like Sheets will be.  He will probably be available on a one year deal, for around the same, or less, as Washburn.  Sheets has tremendous upside and even if he pitches 100 innings will probably be worth more than washburn.  We have enough depth in the rotation, that if (when) he goes down he can be replaced with someone good. 

I do not think this will happen.  I’m just saying, that if this team really wants “veteran” leadership, why not get someone who is not only a veteran, but also a good pitcher?  See how these crazy Washburn rumors affect me?   I think whoever gets Sheets, will be getting a hell of a deal.   However, the Twins are having enough problems making room for their pitchers (namely Bonser and Humber) that adding someone as risky as Sheets will force us to get rid of someone who could be a very reliable reliever/spot starter.  Obviously we should pass on adding any starting pitching.   As you all know, I do not support handing people jobs based on past performance, but all five of those guys deserve to be in our starting rotation on opening day.

This might be the worst post I have ever written, but it was written over about two hours intermittently, so my train of thought is off.  So to summarize:  we shouldn’t add a starting pitcher just because we think we need “veteran” leadership.  When will we start calling Baker a “veteran”?  I know he looks like he is 12, but c’mon.  IF the team for some reason feels the need to add a “veteran” presence, instead of paying an expensive, no upside guy, why not sign an expensive high upside guy if the price is similar?

Obviously not much else is going on in Twins land these days.  We discussed the cheap signing of Ty Wigginton.  It looks like the Twins are going to go into spring training with the roster they had last year.  I’m not comfortable with the fact that there aren’t too many competitions going on in spring training.  I feel that always brings out the best.  The OF competition should be interesting.  Obviously all four guys will make the team, hopefully Gardy gives them all equal reps in spring training.  This year might be the first year in a long time where Gardy really has to “manage” game in and game out.  We have a platoon at third, and a platoon of sorts in the OF.  In the past (for the most part) the lineup was “set it and forget it”.  No he has to consider matchups each game.  The third base platoon should be fairly straigh forwards.  Harris against lefties, Buscher against righties.  The OF will be a little bit more work.  He will have to look at how players have faired against certain pitchers.  This will be difficult since three of them (Young, Gomez, Span) have very limited major league experience, therefore can’t possibly have much of a track record against anyone.  I’m afraid Cuddyer will unfairly be favored and instead of 4 guys rotating through 3 positions, it will be 3 rotating through 3.  The DH spot will probably be open against most lefites, and Young or Cuddyer and step in on those days, and then the outfield will be set by default.

What other roster spots are guys competing for?  Is it just the utility infielder?  I would assume Tolbert is far and away the leader for that spot.

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Oh my, is Bill Smith’s face red!

When the Twins stopped looking at Ty Wigginton, the implication was that his asking price was higher than Casey Blake’s, and that the Twins didn’t value him that highly. Well, now he signed with the Orioles, for two years and six million dollars. That’s right. Less than Mike Lamb, except right handed, not a complete dipshit, and with the remote possibility of being decent; and coming off a huge offensive year.

I’m not usually one to scream “Fire!” in a crowded movie theater, but this signing is a disaster. It’s one thing to say “We don’t think Wigginton is worth $18M,” but it’s quite another to say “We don’t think he’s worth $6M.” And by the way, he absolutely is. Over the past three seasons, he’s been worth $5.6M, $5.6M, and $13.5M. I figure he’ll drop back down to somewhere in the $5-6M range in 2009 and probably a bit below that in 2010, which means the Orioles just signed a ludicrously team friendly contract. You don’t think we could have enticed him with something along the lines of “You’ll play on a contender, you’ll be protected by two of the best left handed hitters in the game, and you never have to face a left handed pitcher if you don’t want” or something along those lines? How in blazes did the Baltimore Orioles convince him to go there? And here we are, hands in pockets, letting good deals pass us by while we have money to spend.

Oh. Speaking of which, the other bit of “news” mentioned in that article is something I wasn’t planning to mention, because it seemed so stupid that nobody would even bother caring about it. A Seattle newspaper is reporting that the Twins and Mariners have been talking about a Delmon Young for Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Clement swap.

JoeC’s analysis is, well, let’s just say “interesting:”

If that’s true — and we haven’t confirmed this – perhaps the Twins had plans to spin Clement off as part of another deal. The Twins have this Mauer guy at catcher, and one of their top prospects is catcher Wilson Ramos.

Given our recent history of making trades, we’d probably fail to trade Clement and release him instead. Or send him to the Red Sox for a thirty second video of Theo Epstein laughing hysterically at us. Either way, why would we want to deal for a no-field catcher whose only other defensive abilities include 1B and DH? (You know, the only other two positions that we have guys locked into, besides C.)

But he really just falls off the wagon regarding Washburn:

The Washburn part makes sense, however. The Twins tried getting him last summer. Washburn, a Wisconsin native, will make $10.35 million this season in the final year of his contract. The Mariners are trying to shed salary, so they can add Bobby Abreu or Ken Griffey, Jr., and the Twins have room to add.

Oh, okay then, acquiring Washburn makes sense because:

1. The Twins mistakenly tried to acquire him during last season because they really didn’t want Liriano winning games for them.
2. Washburn is from Wisconsin.
3. Washburn will make over $10M this season.
4. The Mariners want to get rid of his contract.
5. The Twins have a bit of extra money in the budget.

This all follows pretty logically, I think. I mean seriously, how could the Twins possibly not make this deal after considering those foolproof bullet points?

Wait, what’s that you said? None of those sound like benefits to the Twins? You mean the Twins are not obligated to make talentless millionaires and poorly run organizations happy? Why, where’s the goodness in your heart?! The Twins are a charity, not a baseball team!

You have got to be kidding me. Whoever started this rumor wasn’t thinking straight, and the Twins people who are “thinking” about it aren’t thinking straight either.

The Twins have the best catcher in baseball established behind the plate, and he’ll be here for two more years unless we do something smart and extend his ass. We also have a big time prospect coming up to replace him by the name of Wilson Ramos, who also has the advantage of being a bit of a power hitter. They are not going to acquire a catcher.

The Twins also have a cadre of talented young starting pitchers, and a whole set of them waiting in the minors to replace them. This is the primary strength of the organization. They have no need to pay $10M + talented players to acquire a guy who wouldn’t even be good enough to start for us.

For reference: Jarrod Washburn hasn’t been worth $10.35M since 2002, when he was with the Angels. He has basically sucked ever since. Over the last three years he’s been worth $6.9M, $7.6M, and $5.7M while getting paid $7.5M, $9.9M, and $9.9M. You simply cannot tell me that the Twins would be better off by overpaying him to lose for us?

Delmon Young still has a whole bunch of talent and a whole bunch of potential, and is just 23 years old. Is now really the time to sell low on him? I mean, it’d be a good time to buy low, but shouldn’t the Twins actually get something out of a potential deal, as opposed to just making sure it works for everyone else?

I could shout about this until I’m blue in the face. In fact, I have been for a few minutes.

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So now we have nothing to do sports-wise until pitchers and catcher report in two weeks.  And even then, watching Boof Bonser run wind sprints on the local news every night is not something I look forward to.  We have analyzed and debated pretty much everything there is to argue about the Twins.  Possible trade, possible signing, potential lineups, potential bench players, the list goes on.  As someone who seems to have an opinion/conspiracy theory about everything, I can honestly say I have run out of topics on the Twins.  For now.  We’ve been at this for about a year now.  We might be the only people who thought it would be a good idea to start a baseball blog in January, but I want to thank everyone who has been reading us on a regular basis.  Thats right, all three of you. 

The new Twins ad aired during the game last night, I thought it was OK.  Not sure why Target field would be receiving a delivery of lumber.  Are they planning on making lots of things out of wood?  Also, why are our highly paid athletes driving trucks? While wearing uniforms?  Is Pohlad (I know he is “dead”, but I think its all a scam for tax purposes) that cheap that he is putting them to work in the off season as truck drivers?  Isn’t that a union thing, I hope the teamsters don’t sabotage the construction site.  As you can see, by that previous line of questions I have begun to go crazy due to lack of baseball, or exciting baseball related news. 

That is all.

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