Fire Gardy

Mauer’s health is clearly becoming a major national issue, as Buster Olney has written about him for the second consecutive day. There’s really nothing new until the results of his second opinion today in Baltimore go public. But there are a few interesting bits of information here.

The first is that Charley Walters has printed some unsubstantiated information that would be quite promising if it’s true:

The sore back that has kept Twins catcher Joe Mauer from playing in spring training games could put contract extension talks on hold for the all-star and two-time batting champion, who can become a free agent after the 2010 season.

Extension talks were to have begun soon in Fort Myers, Fla. Mauer’s contract status likely won’t be affected, though, if he’s playing well in 2010.

I don’t believe I’d read anywhere that contract talks were actually expected to start this spring — just that everyone desperately wants them to. Either Walters is jumping the gun on some wishful thinking here, or he’s got better information than everyone else. Either way, given Mauer’s injury and the fact that the Twins aren’t about to give a long-term extension to a currently-injured player (nor would that player sign a discounted extension before getting the opportunity to play and drive his price up), it’s immaterial.

So we’re probably going to have to wait until next winter to sign Mauer to his big extension.

And the second tidbit we got from Olney is Cuddyer’s thoughts on Mauer and his value to the team:

Mauer is extremely important to us. Not only because he is a great hitter who compliments our lineup like nobody else can, but because of the force that he is behind the plate. Here with the Twins, we have to put a lot of emphasis on keeping runners from crossing the plate. That means not allowing them to get into scoring position, and with him behind the plate, runners tend to stay at their respective base and not get that urge to steal. Which in turn keeps teams from scoring easily. … As far as our concern level, obviously we still have some time this spring, but the days are getting less and less, so it is definitely a concern for us. In that same sense, we all trust Joe to do what he needs to do to get ready because we need him healthy, especially at the position he plays.

Yesterday I — shall we say — criticized Gardy for not being particularly articulate when describing Mauer’s value to the team. Olney must not have been satisfied either, and decided to seek out a better quote from a more articulate guy connected to the team. And, as usual, Cuddyer doesn’t disappoint.

Focusing on Mauer’s ability to control the running game probably understates Mauer’s overall value to the team, and overstates the value of preventing steals for a team filled with homer-prone pitchers. (Stealing second makes it easier to score — but if the hitter puts one over the fence it doesn’t really matter, does it?) But there’s no doubt that Cuddyer’s response is more thought out than Gardy’s was.

But it’s also clear that the level of concern over Mauer’s health is increasing rapidly as Opening Day starts to loom closer. And it leaves me thinking I might have to adjust my blase “he’s fine, nothing to worry about” attitude.

I’ll keep my eyes open for updates. Watch this space — and the #firegardy Twitter feed at the top of the page — for updates.

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I don’t think the importance of Mauer to the Twins would come as a surprise to anyone around here, what with the mounting worry that his injury is worse than we’ve been told and we’ll be Mauer-less at the start of the season. But it’s finally trickled around to ESPN, where it’s apparently Twins Day in Buster Olney’s world.

As a small-market club, the Twins don’t have a lot of veteran stars, and Mauer might be the best player in the majors at his position — an MVP candidate, as Gardenhire said.

It’s true that the Twins don’t have a lot of veteran stars. But I’d venture to say it’s not because we’re a small market club … for the following reasons:

1. The Twins are not a small market club. They have the 14th largest media market in MLB, which puts them squarely in the “mid-market” classification.
2. The Twins have one position player who might start who’s 30 years old (Cuddyer). The entire rotation is 27 or under. Can’t have veteran stars without veterans.
3. How many teams, small- mid- or large-market, have “a lot of veteran stars” on the roster? A couple?

And why clarify that Gardenhire called Mauer an MVP candidate? He finished 4th in the MVP voting last year. He was an MVP candidate.

But how important is Mauer? Like Olney, let’s have Gardy tell us:

“You’re talking about a guy who helped turn a pitching staff into a pretty good group,” Gardenhire continued. “Not to mention that he’s a batting champion. Your third hitter. Can we list more than that? So yeah, he’s pretty important.”

Oh Gardy. So articulate.

First, I suppose Mauer could have helped turn the pitching staff into a pretty good group. He probably hasn’t hurt. There’s really no way to measure this, anyway. But in the interest of having fun, let’s look at the team ERA+ over the years. Since 2001, the Twins pitching staff has yielded ERA+ numbers of: 101, 108, 103, 117, 119, 113, 104, 97.

That jump from 103 to 117 coincided with Mauer’s rookie season. But he only played 35 games. I’m willing to go out on a limb and say that he wasn’t the biggest catalyst in the improvement of the pitching staff. Instead, I’d pin that on Santana’s 182, Radke’s 136, Nathan’s 292, Crain’s 236 ERA+ that year. Can anyone really say that breakout 2004 campaigns from Santana, Nathan, and Crain happened because Mauer played 35 games?

And if Mauer is the reason that the pitching staff got good … well, what happened in 2007 and 2008?* Should he take some blame for the precipitous drop in the team’s pitching acumen? Or should it be be put on the shoulders of Boof (85), ROrtiz (84), and Ponson (63) in 2007 and Livan (74), Boof (68), Rincon (66), Bass (83), and Guerrer (78) in 2008? It’s possible Mauer forgot how to manage a pitching staff and/or became a big jerk after winning his first batting title. But I don’t think it’s all that likely. I’d put it more on the pitchers.**

* Seriously, the Twins pitching staff was below average in 2008. At least when it comes to ERA. I’d guess a huge chunk of that is due to defensive declines. Largely from Delmon in LF, Harris at SS/2B, and Buscher at 3B. If we tighten up the defense just enough to get the team ERA+ back into the 105 range, the pitching staff will look good again.

** Also the position players. See above.

I, um, got sidetracked a little bit there. Onwards, then, to … Gardy’s point #2! Mauer is a batting champion. Yes. A two time batting champion. This is valuable to a team, no doubt. But coming in second both years would have been pretty much exactly as valuable to the team (and he barely beat Jeter in 2006 and barely beat Pedroia in 2008, so he “almost” has zero batting titles, for what that’s worth … which, in the United States of Boston and New York, is a lot, considering that Jeter and Pedroia actually play for real teams and Mauer just plays for the Twins). But I really have no quibble with Gardy here. Mauer can hit. That’s a good thing.

Point number three. Mauer bats third in the lineup. This really has no bearing on Mauer’s value to the team one way or the other. He’s only batting third because Gardy’s stuck in 1950, when you constructed your lineup based on “speed in the top two spots, highest batting average in the three hole, RBI Guys at 4 & 5, and then stick the other losers where you feel like they’ll fit and stay happy, and never change the order around or guys will get confused and uppity and refuse to play.” Mauer should be our #2 hitter. But it has exactly zero bearing on his actual value to the team.* He’s still the same player.

* Actually, I contend that Mauer would be MORE valuable as a #2 hitter. He’d be an OBP player in an OBP position, and he’d get 50 more plate appearances over the course of the season. That’s more RBI opportunities for Morneau and whatever right handed bat we slide into #3. Given that scoring runs is the goal, I’d say that sounds more valuable. Also, not the point.

Okay, that was three things. 100% of Gardy’s reasons why Mauer is valuable. Two of them are meaningless — ie, have no bearing on Mauer’s value one way or the other. The third (or in this case, second) is so painfully obvious that I can’t believe I’m even talking about it. “Why is Mauer valuable to your team?” “He’s a good hitter, Kent.” Ah. I would never have thought of that.

Now that I’ve distracted you (at least for a little while) from the pain of realizing that Mauer might be injured … it’s time for reality to come crashing down on you! I am the destroyer of worlds, and all hope is lost!*

Mike Redmond is a respected backup who’s highly valued by the Twins, but Gardenhire does not see the 37-year-old as an option as an everyday catcher. “I don’t think he’s built for that,” Gardenhire said. “I think he’s built for his role, and we all understand that pretty well, and I think he does, too. Would he try? Absolutely he would. But I don’t think that’s his role on this team.”

* All hope is not really lost. And I have destroyed no worlds. I just thought that went really well at the end of that paragraph. I may or may not be right about that, but it’s too late now to go back and change it. So we’re just going to go with it.

Yeah, I like Redmond too. But I think Gardy’s right about this one. He’s not really a viable everyday player any more. And this might be his last year in the majors before he takes a year or two off to fish, or hunt, or look like Bruce Willis whenever he’s wearing a helmet, or whatever it is that retired Mike Redmonds do when they retire. And then after that he’ll hopefully come back to the Twins organization and be a coach at some level. That’s all a roundabout way of saying that, no, Redmond is not going to be a longterm replacement for Mauer this season. Or ever.

The Twins do have a couple of promising catching prospects in their system. Jose Morales, 26, played in Triple-A last year and hit .315 in 54 games. The Twins are excited by what they see in 21-year-old Wilson Ramos, who slammed 13 homers and hit .288 in Class A last year.

Morales might be ready to stand in for a month or two, and he does have a 1.000 career average in the majors. He’s probably the best option in case Mauer’s not available. But did you know that Morales is older than Mauer?! I had no idea. I just naturally assumed he was a couple years younger. This is a huge problem for Morales. The best thing he can hope for is that he gets a month or two this year, does really well, and then gets traded to a team that might use him before he gets old and broken.* Ramos is still young and in A ball … he should not be in the majors this year. It’s out of the question.

* I am not considering, at this time, the possibility that Mauer may be gone in 2011. Today is dark enough without that nightmare to think about. Thanks for bringing it up, by the way.

And, so, where were we? Nowhere new, I suppose. We’re still waiting on new about Mauer. We still can do nothing but hope for the best.

But Mauer probably ranks somewhere among the game’s five players most important to their respective teams, and the Twins badly need some good news about his condition as they prepare for what should be an extremely competitive race in the AL Central.

I think the AL Central race will be tight whether we have Mauer for a full season or for just 4-5 months. But he very well could be the difference between coming out on top … or coming up short.

I’ll try to keep everyone posted on all the minor trivialities in the ongoing Mauer Injury Saga 2009 (#1). Also the major trivialities, in case you were wondering if I’d skip those.*

* But seriously. Did you even read this article? Is it even remotely believeable that I’d skip some triviality, minor or major? Exactly.

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Last night one of the last bullpen arms on the market signed. The Twins had been looking at Chad Cordero, coming off shoulder surgery last summer, but have decided not to pursue him as he’s now signed a minor league contract with the Mariners.

Given the fact that he apparently hasn’t been able to get his fastball past 80 MPH yet (and his entire value back when he was a good closer was his velocity), this is probably a good non-move by the Twins. And it says a lot about the Mariners’ situation that they’d be willing to take a shot on a fastballs-only pitcher with an 80 MPH fastball.

Instead, the Twins are hoping that Jesse Crain can grab the bull by the horns and fill the role of main setup man. He’s developed a new pitch (the slurve) that apparently totally baffled the Italians in the WBC:

Crain struck out all four batters he faced in his lone appearance against Italy, with each taking a called third strike. All four were caught staring at Crain’s new pitch, a curveball and slider hybrid he calls a “slurve.”

I’d personally prefer swinging strikeouts, but a strikeout is a strikeout, I guess. Even against Italy.

The biggest advantage Rick Anderson sees is that it’s a significant change in speeds from a guy who really used nothing but his fastball in the past. His fastball sits at 95 MPH, while the new slurve goes 82-84 MPH. If he can locate it effectively, the slurve combines a significant change in speed with unusual movement, and could make Crain a lot more effective.

We’ll see. I’m just hoping he’s gotten rid of his tell.

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Last year the Twins traded for Craig Monroe, operating under the thought that since he’d been a Twins-killer for his entire career, he’d do well in the Metrodome and be a viable right handed power bat in our lineup, as an OF/DH type.

In his career, he’s his 13 HR against the Twins (during the regular season). That’s second of all teams in baseball (he’s hit 20 against the Royals). Last year with the Twins, he hit 8 homers, which is the fewest he’d hit in a season since 2002, when he hit just 1 HR in all of 13 games played. Needless to say, it was a precipitous dropoff, and not what the Twins thought they were getting.

And that’s the problem with signing someone who does really well against you — once he’s on your team, he doesn’t get to face you any more, so you don’t get that production. And the Twins didn’t.

So now he’s been mercifully cut loose, and (less mercifully) went to the Pirates. And demonstrated that his skills didn’t actually disappear when he came to the Twins — he just needs to face Twins pitching. Today, he hit 3 home runs against the Twins (two against Baker).

So good for Monroe, I guess.

The lesson to be learned, I think, is that we should stop focusing on guys who do well against us.

(Also, thanks a lot, Monroe. Enjoy the millions of dollars.)

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Okay, on the heels of the new #firegardy Twitter feed showing up at the top of the site, we have a new toy to roll out to everyone out there.

Because we like to use the comments sections for discussing things, it’s useful to know when someone has posted a new comment. I’ve been following the Comments RSS feed for a while, but that doesn’t get updated frequently enough for it to be useful as a realtime comment notifier. You know what would be useful as a realtime comment notifier? If you guessed Twitter, you’re 100% right.

So that’s why I’m here to announce the firegardy Twitter account! Once you’ve signed up for Twitter, you just “follow” the firegardy user (by hitting the “Follow” button on his page once you’re logged in), and his updates will come straight to you.

For now, firegardy will tweet every time someone leaves a comment. Later we might add posts, or other stuff. Rest assured, however, that this will not be used as a venue for spam. I hate that crap, and I won’t have any part in it. The firegardy tweets are just for useful firegardy-related information.

I’m already finding it useful, and I hope you will too.

Enjoy … and go Twins!

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So, it’s been pretty lightly reported that Punto was hit in the elbow by a pitch, while playing for Italy during the WBC. He’s now back with the Twins, and is getting X-rays on the elbow to check it out. He’d already had them taken after the fateful game in Toronto, but now the swelling and pain is back so they’re checking it out again.

Nonetheless, Punto said he had an excellent time playing in the WBC, even better than he expected.

Oh, well that’s good then. The Twins are, after all, paying Punto $4M per season so he can go out and have lots of fun playing for other teams that are not the Twins and then getting hurt while doing it.  

Now everyone knows I’m not the biggest Punto fan in the world, but he’s a valuable player on our team* and I really don’t want to see that wasted by his participation in a futile effort to help Italy win a ballgame. Seriously, Italy? They’re so bad they think having Nick Punto as a starting shortstop is a good thing. Oh, wait. Scratch that last bit.

* Or, as Brian Cashman would say, he’s an asset that we want to get our money’s worth out of. We need to protect our assets!

Hopefully all is well with Punto’s elbow, and we don’t have to see too much of Tolbert and Machado doing their best Punto impressions.

And I continue to be opposed to any Twins players playing in the WBC. Just imagine if this were someone you cared about. Like Nathan, or Morneau.

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Here at Fire Gardy, we like to try new things. Sometimes those things are cool and useful, and sometimes they’re useless and crappy, and sometimes nobody notices or cares. I don’t know which one of those this newest thing will be, but I feel like it’s worth at least pointing out so you can make  that decision for yourself.

Introducing the #firegardy Twitter feed! I don’t know if you’ve noticed the seemingly random bits of text that are now showing up at the top of the page (beneath the big logo), but those are called “tweets,” and they’re hosted by Twitter. I installed that little program yesterday, and what it does is go out to Twitter and ask for all the tweets with “#firegardy” in them somewhere, and if so, prints the most recent five of them right here on our site.

This is a way for me or FunBobby to toss something up quickly that’s not worth a full post but we feel should be part of the Fire Gardy conversation. And it’s also another way for you to join the Fire Gardy conversation. And you can post from anywhere (except, somewhat ironically, directly from our site). For example, I do many of my posts from my iPhone, and many more from Twitter itself, and more still from programs installed on my various computers.

I don’t know exactly where the #firegardy Twitter feed is going to go. Ideally we can use it to have ongoing in-game conversations that will be recorded for (fleeting) posterity right at the top of the page. And I fully encourage everyone to join in the fun by signing up for Twitter and throwing up some #firegardy posts.

(And as an added note, I know that Joe Mauer is trying Twitter out, and Morneau has a PR firm running an account for him. If we could somehow convince Mauer to participate in The Newest Feature of the Bloggingest Blog of Blogs, it would be quite thrilling. So if you see him, let him know.)

Oh, and one last thing. Eat your heart out Gleeman.

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Well Joe Mauer is getting an MRI, or MRA or some such thing, on his back and stomach area to determine why he hasn’t full recovered from offseason kidney surgery.  I wasn’t worried about Mauer at all, until.  Maybe its because the keeper deadline in my fantasy baseball league was last week and Mauer is one of my keepers. 

Joe has always been a slow starter.  Which should come as no surprise, my guess is the wear and tear a major league catcher (who played 146 games and set a career high in plate appearance) takes during the season causes him to need a little more recovery time.  I also don’t want to run around saying the sky is falling just because Mauer his “discomfort”.  It wasn’t even described as pain.  Hopefully the MRI comes back negative (or positive depending on how you look at it).  I think the most difficult part of all of this is not knowing what is wrong with him.  If we knew what the problem is, we would know how to treat it, and get Joe back on the field quicker.  Everyone on the Internet seems to be putting together lineups in case Mauer has to miss the start of the season.  I do not want to do that.  I still believe Joe won’t miss any time, I also refuse to believe he is “injury-prone”.  He isn’t.

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When Eric Gagne signed with the Brewers for up to $1.5M with incentives after receiving a guaranteed offer of $3M from the Twins, I have to admit I was pretty incensed. Which you probably noticed if you read that article.

Well, it turns out that the Twins were almost certainly right to pull that offer and lucky that Gagne didn’t eagerly jump on it. (Boras’ genius is waiting for better offers and pushing up the price. His failing is that he needs to realize when he’s selling a lemon and as soon as an offer comes in that he knows is well above what his product is worth, and immediately take the offer, get it signed, and laugh.)

It turns out that Gagne has The Jesse Crain Special, a torn labrum and rotator cuff, and will probably need season-ending shoulder surgery. He was released by the Brewers on Sunday and won’t be getting that $1.5M he would have gotten had he made the team.

Is this the end for Gagne? Maybe. He’ll probably try to go somewhere next year, and some GM that’s been asleep at the wheel for the last five years will probably sign him. Thankfully, that almost certainly won’t be the Twins.

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Joe Nathan claimed injury a bit ago and pulled out of Team USA. At the time, the argument was whether we had to worry about his shoulder this season versus whether he just wanted an excuse to get out of the WBC. Well, I think we now have our answer.

The day after Team USA made its tournament debut with a win over Team Canada, Joe Nathan returned to the mound in a spring training game, tossing a perfect inning while striking out Aubrey Huff and Ty Wigginton (two legitimate MLB regulars). And, perhaps more importantly, said this afterwards:

“Everything went as good as it could,” Nathan said. “No discomfort at all. More importantly, I didn’t really think about it out there. I think we can probably put this behind us now and move forward and get into a little rhythm here.”

I don’t know if the issue is fully “closed” now, but it’s certainly close. The “soreness” he was allegedly feeling in a particular joint in his shoulder has miraculously disappeared immediately after the WBC started, and now he can get back to pitching for the Twins and getting ready for the season.

Raise your hand if you called this one.

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