Recipe for Frustration: 2 parts Great, 2 parts Good, 5 parts Suck
Yesterday, Posnanski took a look at some interesting things about what makes an offense tick, and the difference between good teams and bad teams; he was, of course, focused on the Royals. But I thought this bit was interesting:
I took a look at every team in the American League and came to the unsurprising conclusion that teams with good 2-3-4 hitters tend to score more runs than teams with crappy 2-3-4 hitters. I know … that’s one of the reasons why I didn’t finish the post. It’s not 100% by the way — when I did the analysis, the Twins had the third best 2-3-4 hitters (by OPS) but were seventh in runs scored. But for the most part, it works … the bottom five teams in OPS for 2-3-4 were also the bottom five teams in runs scored.He ended up not really writing that much about the connection between 2-3-4 hitters and the overall offense, because a) it’s pretty obvious, and b) the Twins kind of break the whole thing down.
First of all, I’m surprised — and delighted — that the Twins boast the third best OPS for 2-3-4 hitters in the league. And actually, after thinking about it, the Twins could rank even better, if a) Mauer had been there in May rather than Casilla/Tolbert, and b) Casilla/Tolbert stay the F out of the 2-hole for the rest of eternity.
But what does not surprise me is that the Twins are an outlier in the 2-3-4/runs-scored relationship. It’s been the problem for the Twins’ offense all season — we have two of the best players in the league, a very solid leadoff man, a very solid cleanup hitter,* and five spots in the lineup that are offensive not in the traditional run-scoring sense of the word, but rather in the insulting, foul-smelling sense. As in, “the bottom of the order is coming up next inning, might as well make a beer run.”
* I’m sure everybody noticed, but Kubel finally blasted a home run yesterday. In fact, he hit a three run homer in the first and again in the second inning. I don’t have nearly enough time to look through game logs, and my Retrosheet database is incomplete — so I don’t know how many times that has happened. What I do know is that it was awesome. Another thing I know is that Kubel hadn’t homered since May 13. That’s a pretty long drought. Before that he hadn’t homered since April 25. That’s also a long drought. As everyone knows, I’m a huge Kubel supporter. But he really needs to pick up his homer pace here. Morneau is leaving him in the dust.
It’s unacceptable that a team with playoff aspirations trots out a daily lineup that is 55% black hole. I mean, they score a lot of runs and win when the top four spots in the order hit like crazy, and that happens surprisingly often. But they’re not going to get a 10/15 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, 11 R performance from those spots every night … which is why you have this thing called a “rest of the team” in the first place.
I know Crede has potential to hit home runs and not get on base — if he’s healthy, that’s his game. And Cuddyer showed a flash of being a productive middle of the order hitter, but he’s in stage three of his Post Contract Seasonal Plan. The stages:
- Suck for an extended period of time
- Show a flash of awesomeness like you’re going to break out and hit like you’re being paid to
- Get slowed by a series of nagging injuries which keep you either out of the lineup or ineffective
- Sit out most of the rest of the season
- Cash a big check
The real problem is that Gomez can’t hit (yet?), Redmond needs to retire, Punto and Tolbert — why do we have two? — should play a combined 1-2 games per week, Harris is an average player at best, Casilla has regressed to the point where he doesn’t deserve to be on the 25 man roster any more, and Delmon Young is the worst position player in baseball.
Frankly, it’s incredible that a team like that can even consider themselves decent. It really speaks to how great Span/Mauer/Morneau/Kubel really are.
Oh, and we really need to do something about the bottom 55% of the order. This simply can’t continue.
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Does the front office have any plans to rectify this problem? and no, spreading out our 4 good hitters over the 9 spots isn’t a solution. Its been two months, time to shake things up a bit.
Yeah, I keep waiting for the customer June roster shakeup. I hope dropping Breslow wasn’t the extent of their plans.
Perhaps the problem is that we don’t really have anyone at AAA waiting. We could give Delaney/Slama a go in the pen, and call up Luke Hughes to see what he’s got at 2B … but other than that there’s not really much down there. (Except, of course, for Morales. Who we can’t call up until Redmond gracefully walks off into the sunset. Why are we only loyal to players who SUCK?)
We just need Young/Gomez/Casilla to turn it around. Which they probably won’t/can’t do.
There is also the option of making a trade. but Smith has shown that isn’t his strongest suit.
His strongest suit is hiding.
If he hadn’t made any trades, we would have gone to the playoffs last year.
But while it’s not that fair to criticize that with hindsight (who foresaw Delmon becoming the worst player in the league within a year?), I think it’s definitely fair to fear him at the negotiating table.
“Fine, we’ll toss in Valencia and Revere, but you have to promise they won’t get good. That’s how this works, right?”
If I recall his job under the old regime was dealing with player contracts and payroll stuff. Not evaluating players. Hopefully there are other people who are still in charge of that, since he isn’t qualified to make any real personel decisions. I think the bullpen issue can be fixed internally, while the lineup/middle infield problem probably can’t be.
I agree.
The free-agent/trade market for relievers is a loser’s game. The cost is much higher than the value. It’s always better to build that from within. Or at least on the cheap (waiver wire).
But we have nothing but more Tolberts in the minors when it comes to middle infielders. That is awful.