And you’re right that Gomez was mostly used as a defensive replacement down the stretch in 2009, once Gardy realized that his terrible offense more than negated his awesome defense. But Young-Span-Cuddyer (and Young-Span-Kubel) was one of the worst defensive outfields in major league baseball in 2009, and there’s little reason to expect it to be better in 2010 unless everyone is wrong about Span’s ability to cover ground in center. And that simply remains to be seen.

And I must apologize for invoking Gardy as a definitive baseball mind – bad example. He does know the game, just not how to manage it. For the record, though, I did NOT mean to imply that Dick & Bert are in any way baseball experts. By analysts I meant guys who actually study and offer thoughtful insight into the game (ie Peter Gammons), not talkative cheerleaders.

And I have played baseball, and I’ve played all three outfield positions; there’s more to the difference than just range, but that’s a good place to start. I’d like you to think about it this way:

Say you’re making skill rankings like in Madden, or some other video game. (These numbers are going to be totally made up, just bear with me.) All outfielders have a “range” skill rating that describes how much ground they can cover. An average CF, say, would have like an 85, whereas an average corner outfielder would have like a 70. A great CF like Gomez, in this example, would have a 93 or something.

Now, what I’m saying is that Span’s “range skill” is around 80-85 or so; in CF, he’s a little bit below average … but if you have that guy covering the easier ground in the corner he’d be incredible. Span’s range makes him something of a “tweener” in the outfield: really awesome in the corner, not quite good enough in center.

“Span is one of the fastest guys on the team – not Gomez fast, but quick nonetheless.”

I never argued that anyone else on the team should play CF instead. I think it’s obvious that’d be a mistake, and also that Span is our best option in center. My point is that Span isn’t close to as good as Gomez in CF, and Young isn’t close to as good in LF as Span. I completely fail to understand how that can be misconstrued as “I don’t watch any baseball games and the only thing I pay attention to is some crazy ass numbers that Gardy and Mauer, the two people on the forefront of understanding and elucidating baseball, have never heard of.”

But, yes. Just on the level of “I watch the games and this is my feeling,” well, this is my feeling:

Span seems to make catches in LF and RF that I almost never see other corner outfielders make; that’s why he gets so many web gems when he plays in the corner spots. At the same time, when he plays in CF, I don’t remember seeing him make any plays where I thought “wow, other CFs wouldn’t have made THAT play!” Rather, I found myself often thinking “boy, I wish Gomez were in for that one.”

I never said Span is “a bad centerfielder,” or “bad defensively.” I said he is not a good centerfielder; and I believe there’s a gap between “not good” and “bad.” Nobody would ever describe Delmon Young as “not good in the outfield.” They would say, instead, that Delmon Young “is a fucking nightmare out there,” or “is a bad defensive outfielder.”

And you’re probably right that Gardy wouldn’t believe that Span’s less than great in center. And it doesn’t matter how he’d react if I told him … he’d probably react with confused indignation if I told him the sun will probably rise tomorrow (that’s just how people react to me saying things). He wouldn’t believe it no matter who said it. And I think that’s a problem. It’d be much better if he understood but said “yes, but he’s our best option,” or “yeah, and I wish we had a pitching staff that fit our defense, but we don’t.” That’d be more promising than “I’m not listening, and if I call our pitchers groundball pitchers, then they’ll induce more ground balls!”

Cuddyer played the baggie at the dome well, and has a good arm. I’ll give him that. but all corner OFs appear to have better range when someone like Gomez is covering significantly more ground than the average CF.

We don’t have all that much data to go on, and it’s always possible that the current numbers are a small sample size fluke, but here they are:

• UZR/150 in LF: 16.7
• UZR/150 in RF: 5.8
• UZR/150 in CF: -13.8

So maybe he’s on okay CF, but all the evidence that currently exists says he’s not.

Some other numbers…

• Young’s UZR/150 in LF: -18.9
• Cuddyer’s UZR/150 in RF: -10.1
• Gomez’s UZR/150 in CF: 14.2

If you believe, even a little bit, in UZR/150 as a statistic, it’s pretty obvious that the Twins’ outfield is going to take a huge hit in 2010: they go from +14.2 to -13.8 in CF, then they go from +16.7 to -18.9 in LF. For a team with a flyball-heavy pitching staff (Slowey, Baker, Swarzak … pretty much everyone on the team other than Blackburn), that’s a disaster waiting to happen. They’re going to need to score a lot of runs (and I think they will).

I presume you believe that the outfielders have different defensive skills? And not that they’re great and any stat that disagrees is therefore obviously incorrect?

Gomez was a great CF, and that was obvious; Span made great plays in the corners and seemed to not make them in CF … and the numbers back that up. Maybe he wasn’t used to CF because he didn’t play it regularly, or maybe he was nervous, or maybe there’s some other explanation. But “Span is good defensively” simply does not explain anything.

Frankly, I’ll be pleased if Span logs some good CF numbers in 2010 … but I’ll also be a little surprised. Oh, and if he does? We’ll probably have to trade him. Because a player who’s good defensively in CF and hits like an elite corner outfielder costs a metric shit ton of money, even in arbitration.

The loss of Gomez makes our defense much worse. Don’t get me wrong, I like the trade, but we lost a lot defensively. Not only losing Gomez, but then having to move span from a spot where he is above average to a spot were he is right around or slightly below average.