Maybe not…
According to LEN3 the Twins have made no offer to Washburn. This is excellent news. Smith has declined to comment, so we aren’t out of the woods yet.
We’ll keep an eye on this situation, hopefully Scott Boras fabricated the whole thing as a source of leverage for Washburn.
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For being self-proclaimed stat wizards you guys conveniently forgot to mention that when Washburn was with Seatlle his WHIP and OBA were better than Felix Hernandez’. Pretty good numbers actually. I love how everyone dismisses Washburn’s year last year because of there “best outfield ever” and “it’s a big park.” Sure those things help. But in a couple key areas he outperformed the #2 Cy Young guy who had the same outfield/ballpark advantages.
Just another example of people being able to use fancy stats to prove or disprove anything. If you don’t want Washburn on your team for whatever reason, you can choose to emphasize his OF’s numbers rather than his own. Vice versa if you want him on your team.
The Twins have Pavano. I don’t think we need two mediocre, expensive vets in the rotation. One will suffice.
I think it’s worth pointing out that neither FunBobby nor I have proclaimed ourselves to be “stat wizards” or anything of the sort. You’re the one who keeps coming in and proclaiming that.
But what the real wizards always point out is that it’s important to look at sample size as well as age.
What someone does in half a season means almost nothing in comparison to what they do over the course of several years. Practically anyone good enough to be in the major leagues is good enough to get hot for a couple months. So … let’s look at sample size.
Prior to 2009, Washburn had been in the league for 11 years. He’d pitched 1687 IP. He put up a 108 ERA+ and a 1.312 WHIP over those 11 years, with 9.0 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.3 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9. It’s over 11 years. This is who he is. He did have a good year at age 27, when his hit rate and homer rate plummeted enough to give him a 141 ERA+ … but again, that’s just one year and he promptly went back to doing what he always does.
In 2009, in Seattle, he did this: 133 IP, 164 ERA+, 1.068 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 5.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9. Obviously the ERA+ and WHIP are huge improvements — but they are just the symptom here, not the cause. If a jump in the results is to be sustained, you’d expect it to be because of an increased in strikeout rate and a decrease in walk rate. Instead, the number of hits and home runs Washburn gave up cratered, his K rate stayed exactly the same, and his BB rate improved somewhat.
Saying “Washburn isn’t as good as he looked in Seattle because it was a small sample size and he benefited from a large outfield and tremendous outfield defense” isn’t an “another example of using fancy stats to prove anything.” It’s not even cutting edge analysis.
Bobby, would you be more open to Washburn if we didn’t have Pavano?
I just don’t know how to feel about our rotation. Part of me feels more comfortable with Washburn than Duensing or Liriano or any of the dozen other #5 guys we have. But I’m not ready to completely write off Frankie either, he could have another 2nd half of 08 type year and then Washburn would be worthless and still expensive.
I don’t have as much of a problem with Washburn than you guys, granted of course we don’t give up on a 3B and a replacement for Punto. But who am I kidding, we will get none of those three. Unless the Nippon Ham Warriors are looking for a 2B to compliment Keppel? Please?
The Twins have already pushed their payroll to what I can only assume Bill Smith considers “dizzying heights,” and paying $5M+ for a 35 year old league-average pitcher, who is bound to decline, and who is another flyball pitcher (on a team with too many flyball pitchers already and a crappy defensive outfield) is simply a terrible idea.
If they were going to spend $5M more this year, they should roll that into an offer to Felipe Lopez. Seriously, it wouldn’t be much of a stretch for Liriano (or even Duensing) to outperform Washburn this year — and perhaps more importantly, their “performance per dollar spent on them” will be much, much better regardless of how they pitch.
I am staunchly against adding Washburn, regardless of whether we’d signed Pavano. (And I would rather have Pavano, who actually isn’t a bad pitcher.)
I like Pavano because it is just for one year. I feel that with Washburn we might be tricked into a multi year deal.
I agree that we should spend whatever money we have left on an infielder. The possible 5th starters we have lined up are just as good as Washburn, but cheaper.
I have this impending doomed feeling that the Twins will “get their man” and sign washburn right before spring training for 5 mil.
I don’t know why BS has such a hard on for Washburn, as has been pointed out here and nearly everywhere else, this is a terrible fit!
The twins could offer Lopez 10 mil over 2 years with a 5.5 mil option on the 3rd year, with a mil buyout. That is money well spent.
This makes too much sense. Instead they will overpay for Washburn adding more payroll, for a band-aid, that won’t work anyway.
Its like this slow agonizing premonition, except it’s not just me that see’s how this will go down, but about 90% of Twins fans in the blogosphere out there. Is blogosphere a word? Screw it, I am going with it.