So you don’t think Frankie had a tough time getting out of jams last year? Even your stats would prove that. Why did ‘09 Frankie fail to resemble even the 2nd half of ‘08 Frankie – he had another year to recover from surgery, right?

“In addition to ignoring his most recent performance statistics, then that, obviously, is your prerogative.”

His most recent performance statistics are 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA. We’re talking MLB here, right? Or are the Twins now in the Dominican League?

Love the optimism, but you pretty much attacked rghrbek even though he’s the one using logic and common sense here.

It’s not a bad sign, it’s encouraging, what happened down there. His talent was so great in 2006, that it’s worth finding out, no doubt.

We just both view that info differently, that’s all.

However, to your point, my prediction (which hopefully is proven very wrong and makes me look like an ass) and easing my skepticism are two different things all together.

Thanks for your thoughts, keep the great posts up!

We’re not going to know who’s right about this for several months, and by then it won’t even be important. But I’d definitely rather he goes down to the Dominican and strikes everybody out than walks everybody — neither is definitive proof that he’s good or bad, but they do indicate something. I mean, we’re talking about a 9.4 K/BB ratio; it’s not a bad sign.

““Not too many pitchers come back from Tommy John surgurey well without reinventing themselves.”, is a comment meant for people of Francisco style of pitching. Granted if you throw in the high 80’s low 90’s and are a command pitcher things are different. I don’t think that’s an outlandish statement.

The Twins have always said that he is going to have to become more of a pitcher, not a thrower after the procedure.

I’m also suppose to pay attention to quotes from Alexi Casilla? Your serious? That’s why I think you are overly fired up on this issue. Of course Frankie is going to say he feels like his old self, what else is he going to say?

The splitter is a fore arm issue, where as I thought the slider was an elbow issue? I think a lot of it, depends on the pitcher at hand, and how they throw the various pitches. Frankie’s is violent, when he snaps that baby off.

I am not backing any of this stuff up with researched facts, except from what I’ve seen from the Franchise the past year and a half.

You can pick apart my differing opinions if you choose, just as you can also rely on those 7 games (gardy’s, casilla’s, and liriano’s comments) as your basis for making your prediction. Cool, that’s what this space is for.

But, I’m holding out for the last 2 weeks of Spring training and the regular season to ease my skepticism.

I know that the split-finger fastball puts more stress on the arm than any pitch, and that many power pitchers use the splitter, and that many of those have successfully return from TJ surgery with no ill effects.

A slider is not necessarily hard on the arm at all. Liriano’s happens to be, because his mechanics on the slider are bad. Maybe Rick Anderson doesn’t know enough about pitching to teach him a viable slider that won’t destroy his arm (none of our other pitchers have a good slider either). Maybe Anderson doesn’t know what to do with a guy who can’t be called a sinker baller (whether they throw sinkers or generate grounders is less important than what category Anderson can stick the pitcher into).

And it wasn’t 5-6 games in the Dominican Winter League. It was 7 games just in the playoffs (I don’t know how many more during the regular season), and you can’t post numbers like 0.49 ERA, 47 K, 5 BB in 37 IP if you’re not putting the ball over the plate. I don’t know what it says about his stuff (though the fact that nobody could get a hit off him kind of indicates it was “good”), but it definitely says his command was there. And 7 playoff games isn’t a ludicrously small sample size; we’re talking about 20-25% of a regular season (not enough to make a real decision about a talent level, but too much time to just dismiss).

If you really want to ignore quotes like

“He killed me,” Casilla said with a laugh when asked about Liriano’s winter performance in the Dominican. “He kill everyone.”

and

“I’ve got my confidence back,” Liriano said. “This winter is the best I’ve felt.”

and

“[It was like], this is me,” Liriano said of the way he was throwing. “That’s the way I know how to pitch. Not worry about anything or any hitter. Just go out there and try to throw first pitch strikes and locate my fastball. I feel like I did in ‘06, I have my confidence back. My arm feels great. Physically and mentally I’m ready to go.”

in addition to ignoring his most recent performance statistics, then that, obviously, is your prerogative. But then you’re just basing your opinion on a scout-like hunch about someone’s mental characteristics, having never actually spoken to the person whose brain you’re condemning.* Personally, I try to stay away from that kind of thing.

* Maybe it’s unfair of me, but I’m assuming you don’t personally know Liriano, and that he hasn’t actually told you that he mentally breaks down whenever anything goes wrong … let me know if I’m wrong about that.

To my knowledge, there is just not a long list of power pitchers, who have a wicked slider (outside of a screw ball is there anything that puts more stress on the arm?)that have come back successfully, and remained throwing with that kind of velocity. We know, in the past, once Cisco gets in trouble he relies heavily on the slider, simply because it’s a great pitch and he trusts it more than his fastball.

If his change-up develops, and he can locate his fast ball, then I might let more optimism creep in.

The light bulb can always turn on for anyone, but I’m not going to proclaim something like an era under 3 and over 200 k’s for the kid, based on 5 or 6 games from the Dominican winter league.

Well I hope you’re right, but isn’t it more likely that he falls somewhere in the middle? Before the injury he was a kid who’d only known success – he fully believed if he got in trouble he could rear back and fire and that was it. Fast forward to now – he’s had a major surgery to which he hasn’t completely adjusted, and he’s coming off an awful year which showed a lack of mental toughness. I don’t see Frankie as a guy with a short memory, either. I say if his stuff really is better he improves on ‘09, but I don’t see him returning to phenom status. Maybe he’s our #3 or #4 by the end of the year.

Most pitchers do fully recover from Tommy John surgery, and a good number of them come back stronger than ever, with better velocity and durability. (I haven’t seen it proved, though, whether that improvement comes from the surgery itself, or from the rigorous workout program involved in the recovery process.)

It’s taken Liriano an unusually long time to get his velocity and command back, and that may well be because he wasn’t good enough about working out during his recovery process. That may make it crucial that people are talking about his mental/emotional state being back where it used to be, and his confidence is high. Liriano needs that — indeed, every athlete needs that.

It seems to me that a return to somewhere near the neighborhood of his former glory is more likely than a repeat of his disastrous 2009. And if you think it’s impossible for someone to struggle and then find himself and turn a corner, and that once anyone shows any sign of weakness at all then they’re just doomed and should be cast aside, well, that’s kind of sad.

Glad you are confident. Not too many pitchers come back from Tommy John surgurey well without reinventing themselves. I just find it hard to believe, he suddenly gets it, is throwing strikes and high heat.

It would change the outlook on the whole twins season if he were to become a legit #2 or #1 pitcher.