Comments on: Mike Lowell? http://firegardy.com/2010/03/01/mike-lowell/ Mismanaging games since 2002 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 15:52:25 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: sirsean http://firegardy.com/2010/03/01/mike-lowell/comment-page-1/#comment-3428 sirsean Mon, 01 Mar 2010 18:59:35 +0000 http://firegardy.com/?p=969#comment-3428 <p>Yeah, if we take Lowell, we're going to have to make the Red Sox pay basically his entire salary, plus we shouldn't be willing to give up much of anything; <em>maybe</em> a nearly-MLB-ready starter will be expendable, like Perkins or Duensing or Swarzak, but a) we'd probably want something better and longer-term than Lowell, b) the Red Sox don't really need or want those guys given that they don't fit the high-strikeout mold of their pitching staff, and c) the Red Sox aren't going to make a trade that they don't clearly win.</p> <p>I agree that we can afford a single weak spot in the lineup, which Punto or Harris will provide. Plus, we're going to want to bring Valencia up whenever he proves himself ready; his K/BB ratio in AAA will be the best predictor. He had a great K/BB in A+ ball, then when he was promoted to AA it sucked. Then in his next AA stint his K/BB ratio was great again, and when he was promoted to AAA it sucked again. If he can make the adjustment at AAA this year, he'll be ready for us to bring up to the majors. <em>But</em> it'll be important for us to realize that he probably won't be successful offensively for his first half-season. Given that in 2010 we <em>can</em> afford a weak spot in the lineup, that'll be ideal for us. Then, hopefully, he can continue his trend of making an adjustment after a half-season of failure, and be an above-average player in 2011 and beyond.</p> <p>So, ultimately, I don't see much point in adding Lowell even if we can get him for free. (Which we undoubtedly can't anyway.)</p> Yeah, if we take Lowell, we’re going to have to make the Red Sox pay basically his entire salary, plus we shouldn’t be willing to give up much of anything; maybe a nearly-MLB-ready starter will be expendable, like Perkins or Duensing or Swarzak, but a) we’d probably want something better and longer-term than Lowell, b) the Red Sox don’t really need or want those guys given that they don’t fit the high-strikeout mold of their pitching staff, and c) the Red Sox aren’t going to make a trade that they don’t clearly win.

I agree that we can afford a single weak spot in the lineup, which Punto or Harris will provide. Plus, we’re going to want to bring Valencia up whenever he proves himself ready; his K/BB ratio in AAA will be the best predictor. He had a great K/BB in A+ ball, then when he was promoted to AA it sucked. Then in his next AA stint his K/BB ratio was great again, and when he was promoted to AAA it sucked again. If he can make the adjustment at AAA this year, he’ll be ready for us to bring up to the majors. But it’ll be important for us to realize that he probably won’t be successful offensively for his first half-season. Given that in 2010 we can afford a weak spot in the lineup, that’ll be ideal for us. Then, hopefully, he can continue his trend of making an adjustment after a half-season of failure, and be an above-average player in 2011 and beyond.

So, ultimately, I don’t see much point in adding Lowell even if we can get him for free. (Which we undoubtedly can’t anyway.)

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