I think the way people usually look at it is that a sacrifice doesn’t count as an at bat, so to get the denominator in this case you’d look at TOTAL BUNTS – SACRIFICE BUNTS, and divide the BUNT HITS by that; that seems to be where 10/15 came from; obviously it’s possible that some of those bunt hits came on sacrifice attempts, so it’s kind of a tricky mix. But I don’t have a big problem with it.

I’d like to point out that Span did not get 10 hits on 15 bunt attempts. He got 10 bunt hits on 27 attempts, check fangraphs. I may be a little confused myself, but I think the discrepancy is either in Sac bunts not counting in AVG or bunts going foul not being counted, or perhaps both. Either way, that .667 AVG looks more like a .370 OBP to me.

As for Bases Taken, I’m not sure what that tells me, if anything. I think both of these are Olney misusing and cherry-picking stats. He still looks pretty fast, considering speed score and such. And I’m in agreement in regards to being more creative with using his speed, minimizing DPs would be worth some risk.

And is it really ridiculous to think he doesn’t have the talent to steal more bases? Obviously he has speed — but being 2nd in the MLB in Bases Taken indicates good, aggressive baserunning.

If you think it’s “ridiculous” to think that “speed and good, aggressive baserunning” is a good platform on top of which to build a base-stealing skillset, fine. I disagree, and in fact I think it’s precisely the mold from which you want to build your base stealers.

There’s a big difference from what your advocating now to what you were before. Before you wanted Span to steal more right off the bat and generate offense because our 2-4 hitters hit into too many double plays. And now you’re advocating Span to steal more when the offense is in need of a spark. On this I would have to totally agree and throw my Twins hat in the air with a hoorah!

Obviously, when the heart of the lineup is clicking, Span doesn’t have to do anything but get on base — the thing is, I don’t think it’s fair to expect the big hitters to hit big all year long. They’ll go through slumps. And when they do, my hope is that Span’s basestealing skills have developed to the point where he can spark something (in some cases by stealing his way into scoring position).

At this point, he’s close to the only guy in the lineup with the speed or talent to do it.

Maybe the lineup is good enough that steals shouldn’t even be a significant part of the offense. I don’t know if that’s the case, but in case it isn’t, I hope Gardy is willing to pull some baserunning tricks out of his hat.

So no, it doesn’t mean Span can never steal.

It doesn’t challenge conventional thinking, it offers an idea of high-risk – high-reward baseball tactics with one of the best tops of the lineups in baseball.

Secondly, Mauer does put the ball on the ground a lot — call it “run and hit” instead of “stealing with Mauer at the plate.”

The idea here is to challenge conventional thinking. Span can’t steal with nobody out, which means he’s not going when Hudson’s batting. He also can’t steal with a good hitter at the plate (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome), which means when Hudson makes an out (that’s not a GIDP), Span also can’t steal. At this point, that means Span is never stealing.

And that’s what we’re trying to avoid.

Let’s say Span steals 25 bases next season (out of lets say 35) – this not an unrealistic estimate. That’s him getting caught 28% of the time.

Joe Mauer grounded in to 13 DP’s out of 125 Opp. (roughly 10%) out of all of the Starters Joe Mauer has the 2nd highest Productive Out Percentage (behind, you guessed it, D. Span). He’s also got the highest percentage of Base Runners Scored for a full time member (Delmon Young is inhead of him… somehow)

So what your proposing is that Span steal more with Mauer at the plate (i understand O. Hudson). Which I think is foolish. You have one of the most productive hitters at the plate, I’ll take my chances with the league MVP instead of an up and coming base runner.

All stats are from baseball-reference.com