Fire Gardy

For the past two offseasons, all the agents (and especially Scott “Ass Face” Boras) have been shouting about collusion between the teams — how else can you explain the fact that mid-30s veterans who were once getting 5/$75M deals have to choose between a 1/$3M deal and retirement? There’s simply no other explanation!

As it turns out, of course, yes there is another explanation. And it’s not “the economy,” which is fun to use as a scapegoat,* but rather it’s the fact that MLB front offices are hiring people who are willing to “think,” or “use a computer,” or other such things that we’ve been told are antithetical to the true essence of baseball.

* I was back in Minnesota for Thanksgiving, and my dad pointed out a tree in our neighbor’s yard which appears to be dying. I blamed it on the economy. Thank you! I’m here all week!

Matthew Leach of MLB.com discusses it — in very ownership-friendly terms, I might add, which is to be expected of anything posted on MLB.com — quoting Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash:

It’s a combination of things. Of course there are the general economic concerns, but there is also more data going around, like FIP [fielding-independent pitching statistics], and others that give you a better feel for a pitcher rather than the traditional wins and losses and ERA.

I suppose nobody should be surprised about this — we’re well passed the point where Wall Street analysts have abandoned a hunch and a handshake as a basis for their deals and moved to computer models. Baseball is big business too, and there’s no reason these large companies shouldn’t be taking advantage of whatever mode of analysis is a) the best, and b) currently available to them.

Increasingly, it seems that the only people still resisting the move to a more complete and quantifiable way of measuring and enjoying baseball are the sportswriters.* As Calcaterra notes:

compare [the quote from Gord Ash] to the aggressive dismissal of advanced metrics by the majority of your mainstream baseball writers and ask yourself if the statheads are really as out-of-touch as they’re made out to be. If anything, the geeks and the game’s movers and shakers are speaking the same language.

Well said.

* Also, the managers.

But this leaves me legitimately worried — the Twins front office continues to be a bastion of old-fashioned thinking, having missed several previous new movements in baseball (including “striking batters out is good,” “drawing walks is good,” and “home runs are good”) and continue to play the game like it’s the 70s.* Thus far, there has been no indication that they’re going to get on the “accurate player/value evaluation” boat any time soon.

* Oh, and also as if each team got to play several middle infielders at once. It remains important to have an abundance of utility infielders on your major league roster and throughout your minor league system, right? Additionally, I feel that it’s worth pointing out that back in the 60s and 70s, the Twins were actually pretty forward-thinking when it came to “striking people out” and “hitting home runs.” Too bad that all went away, right?

Is it time to start fearing that the Twins will start signing old, declining veterans to bloated, ill-advised contracts … especially as those same veterans find it impossible to find such contracts in their former pastures? Maybe this isn’t such a great time for the Twins to be boosting their revenue and payroll significantly.

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Local curmudgeon Patrick Ruesse posted his annual “Turkey of the Year” column late last week, and it is a doozy. I was originally going to take the high road, but you know us kids, we get bored so I decided to call him out.  He only has one point that I want to address, his labeling Joe Caas a “2009 Special Turkey Guest”.  I’ll let Mr. Ruesse dig his own grave:

Joe Christensen. Gentleman Joe is a Star Tribune baseball writer and also the Twin Cities’ leading advocate for OPS, a make-believe number that Bill James acolytes have embraced. How often must we say this, Joe? Runs scored and RBI mean something; OPS doesn’t.

Um, yes it does Patrick.  It means “on base percentage plus slugging percentage”.  I know this is beating a dead horse, but it must be done. OPS has been widely accepted for  most of this decade as an excellent way to measure a hitter.  Peter Gammons, possibly the oldest man alive, often quotes it for his pieces on ESPN.  A network also know as the World Wide Leader in Sports.  World Wide!!!

I can’t imagine if someone tried to use WAR and VORP in front of Ruesse. He would do one of two things: Freak out, or make a terrible Star Trek joke.  There are many advanced baseball metrics that even I think are a little much, but from a math standpoint OPS is just as simple as batting average.  I am not sure what RBIs measure other than how many times a guy comes up with runners on.  A hitter has no control over that. Unless you are playing with like 4 guys like you did in grade school and have “ghost runners” and you can drive yourself in.

Ruesse just needs to accept that baseball is a heavily statisticized sport, and we will continue to develop more advanced (and better) metrics to evaluate players and teams.  He hasn’t done this, and calling one of his co-workers a “turkey” because he has is just insane. Batshit crazy even.  “‘Get off my lawn!’ journalism” at its finest.

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Remember Jason Tyner? When the Twins had finally had enough of his “perfect Twin” hitting line,* they got rid of him. Since he, of course, sucked … he couldn’t find anyone willing to give him another job.** Then the Indians signed him to a minor league deal and assigned him to their AAA team.

* For newer readers of Fire Gardy, that’s .300/.300/.300 — ie, “they’re a .300 hitter!” but with no plate discipline and no power.

The Indians were roundly praised for the move, and everyone said it demonstrated that the Indians valued more than just winning at the major league level — they’d signed Tyner solely to help their minor league team win, to plug an obvious hole on the AAA club’s roster. That this demonstrated a devotion to winning on an organization-wide level.

Well, they’ve continued along the same path.

The Indians have signed former Twins Brian Buscher, Luis Rodriguez, and Mike Gosling (who was a minor leaguer), all to minor league deals.

Maybe this is more of what they were lauded for with the Tyner move, and they’re filling holes on the AAA club so their players “get used to winning” while they’re in the minors. (The Twins organization does the same thing with their Elizabethton Twins, constantly bragging about the competitiveness of that short-season rookie league team, as if anyone in the world cares.)

Maybe, though, it indicates something more … like the fact that the Indians’ farm system is weak enough that Buscher/L-Rod/Gosling can actually fill holes for them at the AAA level. As you can probably guess, I don’t think these are particularly strong baseball moves.

But if you want to know my real opinion, I think these moves truly are a continuation of the original Tyner move. And it’s not something to be praised.

The Indians, like the Twins, are a small/mid market franchise, with a bottom-third payroll. They, like the Twins, have done a great job of collecting top shelf talent despite lacking the resources it normally takes to do that. For years, the Indians have been one of the model franchises — in fact, I think they’ve done a better job than the Twins have of putting talent on the field.

And yet, the Twins have proved far more successful in this decade. The Indians are surely doing plenty of soul-searching trying to determine why. Maybe Eric Wedge was the reason — so he’s gone. Maybe the Twins have just been doing a better job of filling out the fringes of the roster with “winners,” guys like Tyner, Buscher, and Rodriguez that the manager can trust* with the game on the line.

* Inexplicably, mind you.

I think these moves show that the Indians have lost their sense of direction, or perhaps their sense of identity as a franchise. And while I think that sucks for them … it means that the Twins will probably continue to do (at least) slightly better than “contend” in the division for the foreseeable future.

**Oh … and has anyone else noticed that basically every player the Twins let go can’t find another major league job? That they all go to Japan or struggle to get a minor league deal? What does that say about the organization’s roster construction and player valuation? Something … bad, probably.

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I was reading LaVelle’s blog this morning and there was a friendly discussion in the comments (that isn’t sarcasm, the commenters were actually nice to each other unlike most comment wars on blogs) about whether or not its OK to spend 20% of your payroll on one person. Obviously it came up in regards to Joe Mauer.  LaVelle mentioned in one of his comments that the “rule” started when the Indians didn’t want to pay Manny 20% of their payroll so they let him walk to Boston.

I think if the Twins are willing to have their payroll in the 100 million dollar range, they can afford to pay Mauer 20-25 a year.  I see no reason why the payroll cannot be $100 million.  I’m sure there are some Twins fans who want to win the “Twins way” which is by spending no money, but we now have this fancy new stadium and are ready to play with the big boys.  Minneapolis is by no means a “small market”, small market has just become synonymous with “poor”.  We are one of the few metropolitan areas that has all four major sports. The others being: Chicago, Boston, New York, LA,Dallas, Denver, and Washington, DC.  (Might have missed a few, but you get my point).  The Twins used to be classified as a small market team because they got almost no revenue out of the dome, now they will have a cash cow in Target Field and should spend a good chunk of that money on Joe Mauer. 

I know a ton of Twins fans take solace in the fact that when we lose its only because the Yankees spend more money.  Well, they will always spend more money than us so they can continue to do so if it helps them sleep at night.  I for one would be happier if we lost because our GM or manager made bad moves.  You can fire them.  You can’t fire the owners.  The best thing for an owner to do is open up their pocketbooks and let the baseball people work. If Bill Smith says he can win a world series with 80 million, then give him 80.  If he says he needs 100 then give him 100.

So give Mauer 20% of our payroll, but we need our payroll to be north of 100 million to compete for a World Series title.  That is regardless of whether or not Joe Mauer is on the team.  It is just a reality of the game in this day and age.

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I’ve talked a good amount of shit about Dave Cameron and his Neyer-esque hatred of the Twins over the years, but he’s not totally blind. When someone — even a Twins player — has an absolutely historic season and is far and away the obvious choice for MVP, he believes that person should, you know, win the MVP. Today he wondered how in the world someone voted for Miguel Cabrera for MVP over Mauer:

Seriously, there is no argument for a first place vote for Miguel Cabrera. Mauer’s team made the playoffs, beating out Cabrera’s team for the last spot. Mauer hit better. Mauer fielded better. Mauer played a more important position.

None of those facts are disputable. A vote for Cabrera being more valuable in 2009 is like a vote for the sum of two and two being five. It’s not an opinion – it’s a lack of understanding.

And as you all probably know, I agree with him. Personally, I debated putting Cabrera somewhere on my ballot, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it; he was essentially the same player as Teixeira and Youkilis this year, and I had them at 9 & 10, respectively. I can easily see an argument for having him in the top 10 … but I simply can’t see how he can be #1 over Mauer, or Zobrist, or Jeter, or Greinke, or Longoria.

Of course, Cameron wasn’t necessarily defending Mauer. Instead, he’s taking up the torch in the ongoing battle between old media and new media:

So, writers who criticized Law for his vote and pointed to it as evidence that he’s screwing up the process, you are hereby required to do the same thing to the Cabrera voter. At least Keith had a reasonable explanation for his vote. There is no reasonable explanation for a Miguel Cabrera first place MVP vote. It’s just stupidity on display.

I like that battle as much as the next guy, I guess. But I don’t think Keizo Konishi should lose his BBWAA voting rights because of this*, just like I don’t think Keith Law should have lost his vote because he didn’t go with the crowd on a particular vote.

* On the other hand, it’s worth pointing out that Miguel Cabrera got a $200K bonus for getting that single first place vote. That’s nothing for Cabrera and his $152M contract; it’s a whole hell of a lot for some nearly-anonymous sportswriter that even Dave Cameron — a Seattle-based blogger/fan — has never heard of. If it turns out that that had anything to do with it, well, then Konishi should absolutely lose his vote. But there’s no reason to suspect that right now.

So let’s all just relax, and not get too worked up about the fact that Mauer got only 27 of 28 first place votes. The voters didn’t blow this one.

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My AL MVP ballot goes like this:

1. Mauer
2. Zobrist
3. Jeter
4. Greinke
5. Longoria
6. Pedroia
7. Verlander
8. Figgins
9. Teixeira
10. Youkilis

And that’s what it is right now. Frankly, if you ask me again in an hour, it’ll probably be different. (Ask me again in five minutes. It might be different then, too.) While I was trying to come up with this list, I had two conflicting wishes:

1. That there were only 4 spots on an MVP ballot, as I feel there’s a huge gap in MVP-caliber-ness between Greinke and the next guy
2. That there were 15-20 spots on an MVP ballot, because the gap between #5 and #15 is barely discernable, and the order you put these guys in really just falls down to your predetermined biases

Joe Mauer, obviously, takes the top spot (really, the only important one). Everyone’s rehashed this argument a thousand times. Suffice it to say that I think if you’re the best defensive catcher in the league and the best hitter of any position in the league, then you are the MVP of the league. It seems to me that it’d take a pretty convoluted (and “interesting”) definition of the word “valuable” to think otherwise.

After that, I thought Zobrist, Jeter, and Greinke were pretty close to each other. I leaned toward Zobrist because the defensive metrics say he was tremendous this year and I wasn’t about to just ignore that; the same metrics said that Jeter was pretty good in the field, but not great. At the same time, Zobrist was a few runs better offensively than Jeter; given those two things, I don’t see how you can make a case that Jeter was better without saying things like “But Jeter won the World Series in 2009!” or “But Jeter won the World Series in 1998!”* or some such non-individual things.

* People always complain that Jeter’s never won an MVP, therefore he should win the MVP this time around. It’s a cute thought, of course; it’s also one that would never be thought about anyone other than The Great Captain Derek Dreamy Eyes Jeter. You want to know the reason Jeter’s never won the MVP? Here’s a hint: it’s not because sportswriters went out of their way to screw him. It’s because he was never the most valuable player in the league. So … I don’t get the logic that says he should get an undeserved MVP trophy now because he never got an undeserved MVP trophy in the past. The “lifetime achievement award” is called the Hall of Fame, and he’ll get that later.

Anyway, I don’t really feel like arguing about the rest of these guys. Teixeira had a bunch of RBI, but it was only because people were on base in front of him. His actual numbers are basically indistinguishable from other good first basemen: Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, Kendry Morales, Justin Morneau (sans fractured spine). Put any one of those guys in the #3 spot in the Yankee lineup, and they’ll get just as many RBI (give or take random fluctuation).

My only worry is that I’m penalizing Teixeira for the quality of this teammates, in an effort simply not to reward him. I don’t think I am. It was something I thought about a lot. And wanting to avoid penalizing him while also including Youkilis (which emphasizes that they’re basically the same) is the reason I didn’t get to put Franklin Gutierrez on my ballot, which I really wanted to be able to do.

Oh well. We’ll see how this thing goes.

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The Twins’ starting rotation was one of the weaknesses of the team in 2009. For the five spots in the 2010 rotation, they currently have these players available:

• Baker
• Slowey
• Blackburn
• Perkins
• Liriano
• Bonser
• Swarzak
• … and maybe some crappy fill-in guys from AAA

That last bit was supposed to be kind of funny … except that it followed “Perkins, Liriano, Bonser, and Swarzak,” who just so happen to also be crappy fill-in guys from AAA. I think it’s fair to say that the Twins could use another starter (or two).

Given that the top pitchers on the market invariably get huge deals from desperate teams with lots of money who mistakenly think that pitchers will get better if you pay them more money, I’m going to go ahead and count the Twins out of the Lackey sweepstakes. And I don’t view that as a big problem.

I think we should take a look at some of the free agent possibilities this year. I’ve decided to break the potential candidates down into a few different categories; my opinion on the value of each category differs from the Twins’ organizational opinions … don’t worry, I’ll try to explain.

High upside injury risks

• Ben Sheets
• Rich Harden
• Erik Bedard
• Justin Duchscherer
• Carl Pavano

League average “innings eaters”

• Jon Garland
• Jason Marquis
• Joel Pineiro

Pieces of shit

• Daniel Cabrera
• Brett Myers
• Brad Penny
• Jarrod Washburn

First, I’d like to address the “pieces of shit” part of the market. For one thing, there are a lot of them; I’ve only included a few of the “more interesting” ones here. I’m going to file guys like Sidney Ponson and Adam Eaton in the “I sure hope the Twins know better” file,* and just move on.

* Yes, I know they don’t know better. Just leave it alone. Know this, though: if they do sign somebody idiotic, I’m going to fly off the handle, and it’ll probably be a spectacle. So if you come here hoping to read one of my angry screeds, the Twins just might do something such that you’ll stop being disappointed. I’m just warning you.

Daniel Cabrera used to be a highly touted prospect, and still has a big arm and great stuff. He’s just spent the last 7 years totally collapsing; his ERA+ “peaked” at 96 in 2005-2006, and has been on a fairly steady decline since then. But he still throws a fastball in the mid-90’s with good movement, and should be available for a song. The Twins might even be able to stash him in the minors to start the season. I think it might be worth a shot, to see if anybody in the Twins organization can fix this guy. But since it’s not likely, it’s worth pointing out that he should absolutely not be counted on for anything (except an ERA north of 5).

I’m calling Myers and Penny “pieces of shit” here, when in reality they’re not terrible pitchers. The thing is … Myers beats his wife and gets in bar fights and gets arrested and throws his (superior) teammates under the bus and is generally regarded as a big douchebag. And he’s not that great. The whole package? Kind of a piece of shit … and really not the kind of guy I’d expect the Twins to go after. Penny throws hard and has talent, but at the same time he got shelled in his brief stint in the AL in 2009, and when he was released he basically had the option to go to any team; most players say stuff like “I want a chance to win,” or some other such lip service to what old men like to hear player say. Instead, he said “I don’t want to be in a pennant race because of the pressure, and I don’t want to be in the AL because the hitters are better.” So, in response, I say this to Brad Penny: Fuck off. A contender in the AL, like the Twins, shouldn’t touch this guy with a twelve foot clown pole.

There’s been a lot of talk this offseason about Washburn coming to the Twins; after all, he’s left handed, he’s from Wisconsin, he’d love to play for the Twins, so it’s fucking perfect. Well, here’s the deal, folks:

• He started last season in Seattle, where they had a historically great outfield defense
• He’s a flyball pitcher, and that defense turned a huge percentage of those fly balls into outs
• He got lucky, and gave up the fewest HR/9 in his career (0.7) in that half-season in Seattle
• Because of those three things, he put up a mirage 2.64 ERA in the first half of the year
• He then moved to the Tigers
• He faced better hitters, and there was the pressure of a playoff race (for those of you who care about such things)
• His outfield defense was merely good, as opposed to one of the best ever assembled
• He got less lucky (2.5 HR/9)
• He put up a 7.33 ERA

Now, look. I do think he got unlucky in Detroit, and according to him, he was injured the whole time. (See, he is just like Perkins!) On the other hand, we don’t know how Target Field is going to play — it could be a pitcher’s park, or it could be a band box, we just don’t know. But it wouldn’t be wise to bring in a guy who can only succeed in a cavernous stadium. On the other, larger hand, the Twins’ outfield defense this year doesn’t figure to be very good. Wait, I don’t need to sugar-coat this … the Twins’ outfield defense in 2010 stands to be one of the worst in the league, again. Frankly, Denard Span is not a good defensive CF. Michael Cuddyer is not a good defensive RF. (I think his defensive numbers paint a too-gloomy picture, but that doesn’t mean I’m high on his defense.) Delmon Young is absolutely atrocious out there, one of the worst in the league, capable of turning outs into singles, singles into triples, doubles into home runs … wins into losses. That is not the outfield you want if you’re going to bring in a flyball pitcher. His 7.33 ERA in Detroit … well, with the Twins, he might be lucky to repeat numbers that low. For the Twins, Washburn would be a piece of shit. And an expensive one, at that.

I don’t really want to talk too much about those innings eaters — they’re boring, they’ll fit in fine in the 3/4 spots in the rotation, and they’ll probably get contracts just out of the Twins’ budget, because most teams fill out their rotation with $12M/year veterans rather than $0.4M/year pre-arbitration guys like the Twins do. If they sign one of those guys, good for them, nobody gets fired for bringing in an innings eater to help out the youngsters — it’s just not going to put anyone over the top or anything.

And now that I’ve wasted all my breath talking about what the Twins should not do, we get to the interesting and fun part: the high upside guys!

Sheets and Harden figure to be the most fascinating starters on the market: both of them are more than capable of putting up a +4 win season and being a viable 1/2 starter in a rotation … if they’re healthy. Bedard could do the same, except he’s even less likely to stay healthy, which is saying a lot.

Since Sheets missed all of 2009 and Harden broke down badly towards the end of the season, it’s likely that neither of them will be able to demand big contracts this year, even in a thin free agent market. If the Twins can get their hands on either one of them for a 1-2 year contract in the $8M/year range, it’s a deal they simply have to jump on. More than that, though, and the risk is probably too great. It’s possible that some foolish team lavishes riches on these guys, so you can’t necessarily consider it a failure if the Twins don’t bring them into the fold; but Bill Smith had better be using some rollover minutes talking to their agents.

I put Pavano on the injury risk list, largely because nobody really trusts him to stay healthy on any sort of long contract. That lack of trust may or may not be warranted — but the Twins benefited greatly from Pavano’s work in the second half of 2009, and he apparently really enjoyed pitching for the Twins and would like to come back. That’d be a good idea for the Twins, who don’t have much of a rotation without him. If he’d accept a 2 year deal for $10-15M to stick around, it’d almost certainly be worth it. I don’t know if he would, though: in the three seasons he’s been healthy enough to play, he’s been a 3.4-4.4 win starter, which would be worth over $15M a season. (The risk, of course, is that in the 5 seasons he’s been too injured to play, he’s been a 0.0-0.8 win pitcher, and that’s not someone the Twins can afford to be paying big dollars.)

Pavano doesn’t have the upside of Sheets, Harden, or even Bedard. But he’s probably less of a health concern and the Twins have the inside track to signing him (which is probably not true of the other guys).

I’d say the Twins need one of the high upside guys on this list, and it barely matters which one. I’d stay away from the rest of the market, unless one of the innings eaters comes really, really cheap. And as for the pieces of shit? Well, Terry Ryan is still Smith’s senior advisor, and I’m sure he’s pushing hard for guys like Braden Looper, Vicente Padilla, Eric Milton, and Livan Hernandez. The real test is whether Bill Smith can resist.

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Craig Calcaterra links to Ken Rosenthal’s take on the Twins’ moves this week, explaining:

Rosenthal thinks that the Twins’ moves thus far — trading for Hardy; exercising Michael Cuddyer’s option — are all a part of the plan to get Mauer locked up long-term. They were probably the right moves independent of that, but I tend to agree that the Twins are doing what they can to make sure Mauer can’t play the only non-monetary get-out-of-Minnesota card at his disposal, and that’s claiming that the Twins aren’t committed to winning.

I agree completely with Calcaterra here, and this is part of what I’ve been trying to say about these moves the past few days.

While Calcaterra unabashedly hates the Twins,* his Twins-related analysis is, as usual, quite even-handed.

* He’s a Braves fan, and hasn’t forgiven us for winning in 1991. I’m pretty sure you can’t fault him for that. At least, I don’t.

Hopefully these Mauer-wooing moves successfully woo Mauer.

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This morning, the Twins announced that they’ve picked up Cuddyer’s option for 2011, and will be paying him $10.5M; so Cuddyer will be on the team for the next two years. While it seems weird to me that his contract required the Twins to decide on his 2011 option within 5 days of the end of the 2009 World Series, it’s not at all surprising that they picked it up. Given the reality of his contract, the Gomez trade virtually assured that the Twins would keep Cuddyer around.

As I quoted this morning, Rob Neyer’s take on the Gomez trade was that it was a mistake because the Twins need four outfielders in case Cuddyer gets injured.

So how does Neyer feel about the Twins keeping Cuddyer?

For a franchise that routinely cries poor, $10.5 million is a decent chunk of change.
Particularly for a player like Michael Cuddyer.

He then admits that Cuddyer was worth roughly that much in two of the last three years, before pointing out that by the time 2011 rolls around, Cuddyer is surely destined to be half the player he is today — after all, that’s what happens when a baseball player turns 32.

That airtight logic leads to this conclusion:

No, the difference between Cuddyer’s salary and his value is not a great deal of money. But the Twins have a history of overspending on decent players while complaining about the high price of truly great players. Remember, it was just a year ago that they couldn’t afford Johan Santana but quite happily blew $9 million on Craig Monroe and Livan Hernandez. And if they’re not able to keep Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer in the long term, their money mismanagement is simply going to drop them from contention.

Firstly, I don’t see how the $9M the Twins spent on Monroe and Livan prevented them from spending $120M+ to keep Santana. Secondly, Morneau already has a long term contract, and will be with the team through (at least) 2013. Thirdly, passing on Cuddyer’s option would have been enough for Mauer to forget about signing with the Twins; players want to be on a team with other good players, and Mauer has basically said as much already.

But perhaps most importantly, I just don’t understand how Neyer thinks it was foolish for the Twins to lose Gomez because they need four outfielders, and thinks it was foolish for the Twins to keep Cuddyer because they’d be better off with fewer than three.

The non-Cuddyer RF options for the Twins would have been:

• Jermaine Dye (36 year old Type A free agent)
• Vladimir Guerrero (35 year old Type A free agent)
• Austin Kearns (30 year old not-event-Type-B piece of crap)
• Xavier Nady (31 years old and not as good as Cuddyer)
• Eric Hinske (32 years old and worse than both Kubel and Cuddyer both offensively and defensively)
• Or an internal option like the replacement-level Jason Pridie or the probably-not-ready Rene Tosoni

Or they could switch Delmon Young to RF and go for an LF:

• Garret Anderson (38 years old)
• Jason Bay (31 year old Type A free agent)
• Marlon Byrd (32 years old and probably very expensive)
• Johnny Damon (36 year old Type A free agent, and expensive)
• Matt Holliday (30 year old Type A free agent who’s demanding a Teixeira-sized deal)
• Wily Mo Pena (28 year old former-prospect who once had the potential to be a Cuddyer-like player, but never panned out)
• Gary Sheffield (41 year old malcontent who can’t really play any more)
• The same Pridie/Tosoni options as before

Does anyone really think the Twins would have been better served by sending a message to Cuddyer that they don’t want him around and to Mauer that they’re not dedicated to putting a team together around him, and by giving up a first round pick to spend more money on an older player who’s already been showing signs of age-related decline?

It’s easy to say that spending $10M on Cuddyer is a foolish thing to do, and that therefore the Twins aren’t allowed to complain about not having enough money to sign elite-level players. But when the actual alternatives are giving up a top draft pick for the right to spend more money on an older player who’s essentially the same as Cuddyer, is the criticism really valid?

Once again, Neyer’s Twins-related analysis leaves a whole lot to be desired.

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Apparently we here at Fire Gardy weren’t the only people who were interested in and excited by the Hardy trade: 379 people came to visit this blog yesterday, which is a huge number for us and is the second most* of any single day in Fire Gardy history. Normally, we only get about 25-50 visits in a day. An increase like that is probably why Fangraphs went down minutes after the trade was announced! Great showing, Twins fans!

* The most ever was 700, which happened within the first couple of weeks of the blog’s birth. It only happened because Gleeman linked to us, saying essentially “I don’t like these guys.” Thanks, Gleeman. If there’s anything that’ll keep a young blog going, it’s the local titan giving compliments like that.

So I want to say thank you to everyone who visited yesterday, and we hope to see you around here again.

Meanwhile, given that there hasn’t been much news of note since the big deal went down, I figured it’d be worthwhile to go around the league and see what people are saying about the trade.

Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs:

Big thumbs up to the Twins here, who got better in a hurry. The Brewers had their hands tied a bit due to the logjam at SS, but it’s still hard to imagine this is the best they could do.

Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus:

It’s way too early to talk about the best trade of the winter, but this one looks very good as an answer for immediate needs for a team whose core is already in place, and from an executive who’s quickly moving from non-descript organizational guy to an operator who isn’t going to let the Mauer/Morneau years slide by.

According to Tony Massarotti at Boston.com, the Red Sox were trying to get Hardy too:

Milwaukee wanted either starter Clay Buchholz or reliever Daniel Bard for Hardy. The Sox were not willing to offer either pitcher. Milwaukee was not interested in righthander Michael Bowden, whom the Sox would have been willing to part with, and the Sox did not have a center field prospect who could match Gomez’s skill set.

Could it be that the Twins just benefited from the Red Sox’s penchant for only doing deals that are landslides in their favor? Or is Smith getting more respect around the league, such that he can actually start making respectable deals? Either way, it feels good to beat the Red Sox. (Also, this indicates that there was no god damned way we were getting Hardy for Perkins.)

Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times:

For Minnesota, that’s a tremendous value coupled with his defense: the Twins will boast one of the top shortstops in the league and have him under control through his age 28 year.

Rob Neyer:

And of course you have to love this deal for the Twins, who got a player they really wanted (for good reason) in exchange for a guy they didn’t really want at all. That said, unless they get another outfielder, this move means more playing time for Delmon Young, and it’s not at all clear that that’s a good thing. And if anything should happen to Michael Cuddyer …

Of course, Neyer would be the only person to openly criticize the Twins for not carrying four starting-caliber outfielders at once. Unless he thinks 4th outfielders are irreplaceable, for some reason.

Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors:

Hardy is a huge addition for the Twins, who entered the offseason needing upgrades at shorstop, third base, and second base. Due to an August demotion by the Brewers, Hardy is under team control for 2010 and 2011 (Hardy says there are “no hard feelings.”) He slumped offensively this year, but maintained his strong defense.

Aaron Gleeman:

In isolation swapping Hardy for Gomez is a quality move for the Twins, but the trade is not without risk given Hardy’s problems this season and comes with some potentially negative ramifications. If it turns out that Span simply isn’t a very good center fielder or Young fails to step forward offensively the Twins will have downgraded the outfield and upgraded the infield using $5 million of precious payroll room. Still, the front office deserves credit for getting good value for Gomez and I’m cautiously optimistic.

I believe Gleeman was “cautiously optimistic” that the Twins were going to the playoffs after winning Game 163.

Erin at Plunking Gomez, whose blog’s name either needs to change now, or can become increasingly delightful as the months progress:

This also means that the Twins won’t be bringing Orlando Cabrera back. Not gonna lie: that makes me a little sad. I liked O-Cab, even though he couldn’t really field the position anymore, and he didn’t get on base very much, either. I would much rather have Hardy at short, since he’s younger and cheaper and better in almost every way, but I feel a little bad that O-Cab (and his family!) will have to find his fifth new home in three seasons. Gosh, what a sucky day for Alexi Casilla, too. His best friend gets traded and now his mentor probably won’t be back, either.

Nick Nelson, whose blog was recently added to Neyer’s Sweetspot network:

My initial reaction is that I’m very sorry to see Gomez go, as he was a personal favorite, and I’m very concerned about the team’s outfield defense over the next few seasons. But perhaps the writing was on the wall during a month of September in which the Twins were making a fierce charge and Gomez was seeing virtually no playing time.

The last couple show that there’s really more to this trade than the numbers. None of us here are actually running this team; the wins feel good and we all want to contend, but our true investment is in the players. Gomez was well-liked all across Twins Territory, despite not actually being a very good baseball player.

There are still plenty of players Twins fans are invested in, and I’ve never heard anything bad said about Hardy, and there’s still a pipeline of young talent coming up. So there’s nothing, really, to worry about from that perspective.

But I have this feeling that a whole lot of Twins fans will be watching what Gomez does for the Brewers, and hoping he does well. I’m pretty sure I’ll be one of them.

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