Fire Gardy

Remember yesterday when I pointed out that until things change, there’s no reason to be optimistic about Liriano? Well, things haven’t changed. He looked pretty awful last night, and miraculously allowed just three runs while putting 12 men on base in 5 innings.

He didn’t have any command of any of his pitches, and he looked like he was abbreviating his follow-through on most of his deliveries. That probably still has to do with what Blyleven pointed out a couple of starts ago — that Liriano is landing on his heel instead of the ball of his foot, which creates recoil and makes it harder to deliver pitches with velocity or control. Basically, Liriano is fighting against himself.

I don’t have access to his release point data … but I’m going to go ahead and guess that his release point was all over the map last night. There’s no way it couldn’t have been, given his erratic mechanics.

The solution to The Liriano Problem is unclear. Do we keep sending him out there every five days and hope that the offense can carry us that day … like we did for Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, and other 5th-or-worse starters? Do we try moving him to the bullpen to pitch in high leverage situations, where he would almost certainly suffer frequent meltdowns? Can we put him on the DL for something? What about AAA?

None of these options sound particularly good. But the only thing that’s obvious is that Liriano has a problem, and it’s not showing any indication of getting better.

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Well, that was a disappointing weekend.  We really needed to win all three of those games against the Astros.  They are simply not a good baseball team. 

• Kubel left Sunday’s game early because he caught the flu from Mauer.  Or because he terribly misplayed a ball in right field.  You be the judge.
• Apparently we decided not to hit yesterday.  I was at the game and it was pretty painful to watch.  After watching the first I thought Perkins was going to have a line something like this: 4IP, 8 hits, 6ER.  He managed to settle down and gave up 4 runs over 7 innings. Not great, but considering how he started the game, much better than expected.
• Saturday’s game really should be the final nail in the coffin for certain bullpen members.  I’m looking at you Sean Henn.  I say we pool our money and buy a plane ticket for Anthony Slama TODAY.  The front office/coaching staff can’t truly believe the bullpen in its current state gives us a chance to win.  They do not.
• I was hoping this interleague stretch would be a time for us to string together a bunch of wins and surge above 500.  Instead we have decided to stick close to the 500 mark.  Bold move, Gardy.
• We have nine games on the road starting tomorrow night in Milwaukee, the to Saint Louis and KC.  St. Louis scares me a little, but we should be able to win the series against the Brewers and Royals.  That being said when we play on the road anything goes.
• Will any moves get made on this off day?  I would bet Ayala’s days are numbered but I saw a stat that he pitches really well on the road, so we will probably keep him around through this trip. 
• What are your thoughts on what probably has to be the most disappointing series of the year so far?

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According to Joe C, the Twins have decided what to do with Jesse Crain.
 
http://blogs2.startribune.com/blogs/christensen/2009/06/16/tuesday-lineups-crain-crede-cuddyer-span-updates/
 
Apparently the expectation that he may have been pitching through an injury were incorrect, as rather than put him on the DL, the Twins have optioned him to AAA. I’m posting from my non-multitasking iPhone, so I can’t check if he still had options or if he had to pass through waivers, but I expect that we’d have heard about it if we’d put him on waivers.
 
While this comes as a welcome move given his awful performance lately — coming to a head, of course, on Sunday in Chicago when there were 20000 Twins fans in the stadium who knew we’d lost a few minutes before it actually happened — the fact that he was replaced by Perkins is interesting.
 
It leaves Gardy one bullpen arm short of where he normally likes to be, and may open the door for one of the starters to move into a bullpen role.
 
Swarzak can’t come back up until 10 days after he was sent down, unless someone else goes onto the DL. Them’s the rules.
 
So my guess is that one of the following two things will happen:
 
1) Liriano’s next start will be his last chance to stay in the rotation. If he doesn’t pitch well, he goes to the pen and Span goes on the DL to make room for Swarzak.
 
2) If Liriano pitches well, Swarzak stays in the minors and we bring up a right handed reliever when we send down Morales (note that he hasn’t played yet). Hopefully this is Slama rather than Humber or Morillo. Also, Duensing is a possibilty if they don’t care about having an extra lefty (they shouldn’t).
 
The most likely scenario, naturally, is that I’m totally wrong here and the plan is something completely different. The second most likely scenario is that the plan is meaningless because everything will change between now and when it matters.
 
But this is just my reaction to this excellent news.
 
Now we get to be relieved of wailing when Crain comes into games, and Cuellar and the Cliburns get to try to work their magic on his busted mechanics.
 
What are your thoughts?

Posted via email from sirsean.posterous

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I must admit, I’m a huge fan of Posnanski’s latest ongoing feature, So How About This. Know what else I’m a fan of? That he’s basically got a Mauer Watch going, as he brings up Mauer as one of the absurd stats every week when he writes the post.

This week?

So how about this: Joe Mauer, his last six games, is 11 for 26. He’s had a hit every game, two hits in three of those games, and three hits in one game. In those six games, he has raised his average from .413 to .414.

THAT is how hard it is to hit .400 for a season.

Firstly, I’m going to be honest. It’s felt like Mauer’s been slumping lately.

Secondly, I think there’s no better way to explain exactly how difficult it is to hit .400 for a season. Sure, Mauer struggled a little bit this week, and he was sick. But he also went 11 for 26 with a home run. For most players, that puts them in the running for player of the week.

For Mauer, though, it’s just hovering.

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I was at the Twins game at Wrigley Field on Sunday, to witness the Twins’ first loss of the season against a National League opponent. I don’t want to talk about it, except to say that I like Wrigley. I may have more on that in the future. What I want to talk about today is FunBobby’s t-shirt. You see, he was at the game too, and was wearing a Delmon Young t-shirt jersey; I amused myself by making fun of his choice. I believe I called it “an unwise investment.”* But really, I like Delmon Young. And, like FunBobby, I’m still rooting for him to turn it around.

* Of course, since he knows more about such things than I do, he accurately pointed out that t-shirt jerseys aren’t really investments. And here I thought my beat up old #27 Morneau was sure to skyrocket in value one of these days. Maybe I shouldn’t feel so bad about spilling toothpaste on it the other day, then.

Patrick Reusse, on the other hand, is done rooting for that. He feels like an idiot for being tricked into thinking Delmon Young had potential two years ago, and now he’s on the rampage. And do you know what happens when Reusse takes a look at history? He conveniently rewrites pieces of it.

The [scouts'] observations included: “… Delmon, still only 19, has proven himself one of the bright talents in the D-Rays farm system. He has often been compared to Albert Belle,* albeit minus the attitude, for the way he attacks the ball.”

Four years later, the actuality has been that Young compares far more favorably with Belle in attitude than in productivity.

I’d heard Frank Robinson, but oh well. Reusse’s probably just paraphrasing that quote anyway. There’s no link to verify a source.

At this point of the article, I can’t tell if Reusse’s trying to say more about Delmon’s production or his attitude here. But, in reality, while his production couldn’t be much further from Belle’s, his attitude also couldn’t be much further. Delmon has been close to a model citizen in his time with the Twins, aside from a Kubel-esque lack-of-inner-fire-boiling-over-through-the-face,* and this is the first criticism of his attitude I’ve heard all along.

* I believe this method of measuring the quality of baseball players explains why Nick Punto is so beloved. He’s got competitive fire boiling up out of his face all the time.

But maybe I should give Reusse the benefit of the doubt here. I mean, I tried to do that for Geoff Baker, and for Jim Souhan … and you know how that goes. If you find yourself having written an article that heats up my hackles,* it means you don’t get the benefit of the doubt.

* I think I’m going to try to start using that phrase. Who’s with me?

So, Reusse, can you justify yourself? Do you earn the benefit of the doubt by either dropping the bad-attitude thing or, preferably, by explaining exactly how he has a bad attitude?

The Twins had found themselves with a messed-up hitter who had no interest in listening to batting coach Joe Vavra or anyone else.

Okay, so the fact that Delmon’s not hitting can only be due to the fact that he’s not listening to Joe Vavra? I don’t know if anyone else has noticed, but Vavra hasn’t exactly done a great job with anyone else, either. In fact, I’d say that there are three real possibilities here:

1. Everyone is listening to Vavra, and that’s why they all suck
2. Nobody is listening to Vavra, and that’s why they all suck
3. Vavra never should have become the hitting coach at all; his one “success,” Morneau, is a great talent who probably would have started hitting like this anyway

Wait, is #3 all that different from #1? And … does it matter? Either way, I think it’s disingenuous to say Delmon has no interest in listening to input or in getting better at the plate.

Reusse goes on to talk about Gardy’s debacle in December, when he told a bunch of farmers that Delmon would be his fourth outfielder. Here Reusse was compelled to put words into Gardy’s mouth, and to project some motivation:

Gardenhire backtracked after that statement reached the Twin Cities, but the message was clear: One season of Young — with Albert Belle attitude and Chad Allen production — was about all the manager could stomach.

Firstly, do you think Reusse is aware that Chad Allen was mentioned in the Mitchell Report? If so … isn’t this exactly the sort of stuff that got Jerod Morris in all sorts of trouble? I mean, I guess this is just another example of a sportswriter making such a claim when — wait a minute! It’s much more likely that Reusse simply had no idea that Allen’s meager production may-or-may-not-have-been fueled by steroids. So this is really just two things: an amusing example of Reusse’s obliviousness, and a cruel insult to Allen, whose promising career was cut short by a busted seam on the Astroturf.* I’m calling “asshole” on Reusse for this one.

* By the way, Chad Allen finished the play on which he blew out his knee. You could see on his face that he knew his career was over, and he still hopped on one leg to chase down the ball as it bounced away from him, and threw it back into the infield to save a run before collapsing in a heap. It was an extremely heart-warming story, until Senator George “World Series Ring” Mitchell turned it into a dark tale of drugs and unspeakable evil.

Oh, it’s one more thing. It’s another comparison to Albert Bell’s attitude. Still no evidence, of course, or “quotes” from actual sources. Just Reusse’s insistence that Delmon’s got a bad attitude. I hope someone shows this article to Delmon, and then starts painting pictures of Reusse onto the balls they’re throwing for batting practice. Joe Vavra, are you listening?

At the end of the day, this is all about Delmon’s production. And people react differently to that.

I, for example, write angry blog posts at work, and unsuccessfully attempt to shout things from the stands when I’m at the game. I’m pretty sure none of the things I yelled actually made sense. FunBobby can surely attest.

FunBobby shows support for him by buying the t-shirt jersey and sporting it to games.

Reusse pens a fogeyish possibly-racist attack on Delmon’s attitude and how he’s not living up to his vast potential as an athlete, and that he just doesn’t understand how someone could throw their god-given talent away like that.

Don’t believe me?

How could that be a young man’s mission, and six years later he’s watching tape of a swing that’s all arms and doesn’t do anything about it? How can a hitter with the assets of strength and bat speed find himself apparently content with bouncing and fisted singles?

I don’t get it. I don’t understand.

That’s what Reusse said. This is the internet. You can’t just make up quotes.

And finally, Aaron Gleeman sits back, pleased with himself that he totally called it all along, and Delmon Young just isn’t good. That’s one way to do it, I suppose. Just doesn’t seem as fun to me.

Maybe Delmon’s finished. Maybe he never actually had all the potential it looked like he did. Maybe he’s just a small tweak from finding himself again. Maybe he needs a new hitting coach. Maybe he needs a change of scenery. Maybe he should be in RF instead of LF. Maybe … a million different things.

But none of them are his attitude.

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Kevin Slowey was cruising for 6+ innings last night, until things got bumpy in the 7th.  I blame Robby Incmikowski (or whatever the hell his name is) for this.  For those of you who weren’t watching the FSN telecast, after the sixth inning Incmikowski said something along the lines of  “Kevin Slowey now has his sixth consecutive quality start in the books”  Not if he gives up 4 runs in the seventh he doesn’t.  What a jerk.

The homer Mijaresgave up was unfortunate, but Vic Martinez is a great hitter from both sides of the plate so I don’t think its an issue.  At least there was nobody on base. 

The Twins again featured a lineup that had more black holes than I care to count (four) at the bottom.  Hopefully Cuddyer and Crede come back soon.  Then we will have a lineup that looks something like this:

1. Span
2. Mauer
3. Morneau
4. Kubel
5. Cuddyer
6. Crede
7. Harris
8. Free out, I mean second base.
9. Gomez

As much as I want to like him, we can no longer put Young in the lineup.  He is simply over matchedby even mediocre major league pitching.  Gomez has shown both on the field an in the stats book that he makes up for his inability at the plate with his exceptional defense.

Once again Joe Mauer has proved he is the second coming.  Speaking of Joe, was anyone else bewildered (upset?) that Ullger held Mauer up at third (I don’t recall which inning it was, I think it was the third)?  He was about halfway home and running at full speed and Ullger throws up the stop sign.  If I were Mauer I probably would have kept going.  At the very least it would have been a close play at the plate.

If Harris isn’t the starting shortstop for the forseeable future Gardy and I will have words.

In other news, check out the sweet new Budweiser Roof Deck going in at Target Field.  Looks like a great place to have a few dozen beers and watch the Twins.

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Well, the weekend series with the Rays was uninspiring.  I’m sure we all knew that with Baker and Liriano going on Friday and Saturday that the Rays would have at least one big inning per game.  I really don’t know what to think about these two.  Liriano bothers me more because he really seems lost when he puts runners on.  Baker gets out of jams every once in a while, usually after a homer with runners on, but still… 

I don’t know how many more starts we can afford to give Liriano.  Its not that early anymore.  We have a tough west coast road trip on the horizon. Perkins is due back soon.  Swarzak has looked good.  All of these are reasons that Liriano needs to go somewhere to get his act together.  Whether that be AAA (which I doubt, since he has shown he can dominate AAA hitters, and still suck in the Majors), or just go down to Florida and work with a sports psychologist and some pitching coaches.  Everyone seems to agree that his problems are largely mental.  There isn’t an obvious flaw in his mechanics like with Baker in a few of his early starts.  We can talk over and over again what should be done, but I think its clear nobody really knows.  If Perkins comes back healthy,  and Swarzak has another good outing, I bet they move Liriano out of the rotation.  Which is for the best.

Another problem that needs to be taken care of is Delmon Young.  Can’t we put him on the DL for a long time with one of those “anxiety disorder” things that everyone seems to be doing?  I mean his mother did just die, so its not like it is TOTALLY unbelievable.  We can’t keep trotting him out there everyday, as he is the worst outfielder in the AL (to go along with Nick Punto also being one of the worst everyday players in the AL).  As Gleeman pointed out yesterday, Gomez makes up for his terrible offense with excellent defense, thus making him slightly above replacement level.  Young on the other hand is atrocious on both sides of the ball, thus making him one of the worst in the league in terms of RAR.

Harris needs to be in the lineup everyday, not because he is a great player, but because he is the best middle infielder on the major league roster.  Hands down.  Do we call up Steve Tolleson at any point soon?  When Punto comes back he is going to have a guaranteed spot in the lineup, so my guess is either Casilla or Tolbert go back to AAA.  Probably Casilla because a) Gardy hates him, and b) Tolbert can play at third, second and short. 

These last two problems are very frustrating because the top 6 on this years team is probably the best top 6 the Twins have had in a while.  However, the bottom three are the worst bottom three that any team has had in a while.  Span-Mauer-Morneau-Kubel-Cuddyer-Crede is outstanding.  Young/Gomez-Punto-Tolbert/Casilla is downright awful.  Plugging Harris in the seventh spot makes it slightly better, but Gardy needs to come out and say “Harris is my everyday shortstop”.  Until he does this, I firmly believe that Gardy thinks a Punto-Tolbert middle infield gives the Twins the best chance of winning ballgames.  Which it doesn’t. No questions. We can’t have a repeat of 2007 where s horribly inept player is allowed to play everyday all year.  When someone sucks replace them.  Don’t let them work their problems out while helping the team lose.

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Remember this morning when I said I was wondering if Casilla’s return would herald Mauer’s departure from the second spot in the lineup?

Well, apparently Gardy hasn’t gone completely nuts:

Alexi Casilla is here. He’s in a much better frame of mind than he was when he was sent down. But Gardy has him batting ninth. The manager would love to move Casilla back into the No. 2 spot but wants him to hit his way there first.

Especially with Mauer’s added power, I also wouldn’t mind seeing Casilla get back into the 2 hole, but he does have to prove he can do it. You prove you can do it by hitting the ball. So hopefully Casilla proves he can hit again, and Gardy sticks to his guns and doesn’t move him back up in the lineup until he does it.

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Huge news, everyone! Take it La Velle:

The Twins placed Nick Punto on the DL after the game. Brendan Harris will take over at short. Alexi Casilla will move in at second. Matt Tolbert will back them up.

During last night’s game I was surprised and saddened that Tolbert batted with the game on the line — wait, not saddened; what’s that word? Oh yes, furious.

Matt Tolbert is not a good baseball player. I mean, Gardy and all the guts-loving/talent-hating “baseball people” around the Twins love Tolbert because he’s “a baseball player,” but the thing is that he lacks any semblance of talent. His skillset is exactly that of Punto, which would be valuable except for:

1. Tolbert is worse at every single skill
2. We already have the real Punto
3. You don’t need multiple average-glove-no-hit-utility-infielders on one team

Punto being banged up was the reason Tolbert had to bat last night in the 9th, when both Buscher and Young were sitting on the bench; neither of them can play second base, and Punto couldn’t come out to play the field.

What might Gardy have done?

I asked Gardy what would he have done in the eighth if Harris had gotten on and Tolbert had to hit. “I would have done something,” he said. Then he said he might have sent Delmon Young up to pinch hit, then used him in the infield. Wow.

Wow, indeed. You know, Delmon doesn’t actually hit that badly for a middle infielder.

Well, hopefully Casilla’s got his head straight now and can start contributing. I’m curious as to whether Mauer will contine to bat second now that Gardy’s got his “number two hitter” back.

And now that Tolbert has been relegated to his rightful place as a “plays once a week backup” type player and The Tolbert Experience has now ended, we can go ahead and say it:

The Tolbert Experience sucked. He actually made me miss Casilla’s mistakes.

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Jim Souhan emerged from hiding today to do his very best to hide what might be an interesting idea deep within his typical tired dreck. I’ll skip over the bullshit and go straight to the thesis.

Glen Perkins probably will return from the disabled list in the middle of June, after two starts in the minor leagues. If Swarzak continues to pitch well in his next two starts, the Twins should keep him in the rotation and let Perkins replace Liriano, and move him to the bullpen.

Given that Perkins is the one with more bullpen experience, I was kind of expecting him to be the one relegated to the pen if Swarzak continues pitching well. But this could actually be interesting. Perkins doesn’t have great stuff, and his role in the bullpen has been as a long reliever rather than a late inning guy. It would be far too dangerous to rely on Perkins in the 8th inning of a close game if he hasn’t already been rolling for seven.

But let’s do a little more investigating than Souhan is capable of. Check out Liriano’s numbers…

The first time through the lineup, opponents hit just .163/.253/.263 against him, with a 26/8 K/BB ratio and just 5 runs in 91 batters. The second time: .325/.400/.575 with a 12/9 K/BB and 13 runs in 90 batters. The third time? .396/.460/.717 with a 9/8 K/BB and 21 R in 64 batters. (Holy shit, were you aware that 33% of the batters who come to the plate for a third time in a game against Liriano SCORE? That’s just absurd.)

So his numbers balance out to be pretty crappy overall, and Souhan’s gut feeling may actually be correct here.

Let him enter at the beginning of the seventh or eighth inning and throw as hard as he wants for an inning or two. Remove concentration, consistency and stamina from the equation, and let him try to strike out the side.

The overall bad numbers paint an uglier picture than is really there; namely that for the first 2-3 innings of his starts, Liriano is dazzling. We’re talking 5.5% of batters come around to score. His times-through-the-order split is what it looks like right before everyone realizes you’re a reliever. And given that Liriano definitely has good stuff (just not great stuff like he had three years ago), he’d probably be successful in the bullpen. And the Twins just so happen to be in desparate need of a dominant late inning reliever, who can strike anybody out, and can go 2-3 innings if need be. Liriano, apparently, is exactly that player.

But remember the part about how he simply has better stuff than Perkins? There’s a reason the Twins have been giving him every possible opportunity to make it as a starter, and it’s not totally because they remember his 2006. Starters are simply vastly more valuable than relievers. In 2006, Liriano was worth 4.1 wins in limited duty (between entering the rotation late and getting injured early). But let’s toss out that mirage and look at something else. In 2008, just last year, he was worth 1.4 wins, in just 14 starts.

Last year, how many Twins relievers were worth more than those 1.4 wins? Exactly one, Joe Nathan. In fact, the second best reliever was Craig Breslow and his 0.9 wins. Even in 2006 (the last time the Twins bullpen was any good), only two relievers bested that 1.4 win mark — Nathan and Rincon’s career year. This point has been hashed and re-hashed about a million times here on the wide open plains of the internet, but it’s worth repeating: it doesn’t matter how good a reliever is, he’s just not as valuable as a good starter.* Even Mariano Rivera last year — one of his best — wasn’t as valuable as Mussina, Pettitte, and Chamberlain’s few starts.

* I know a lot of people don’t buy it, but Nathan wasn’t nearly as valuable in 2008 as Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn. No reliever is EVER as valuable as the team’s top 3-4 starters.

So it’s totally understandable that the Twins would want Liriano to be a starter.* Maybe the first time through the lineup is the real Liriano, and if he can only be taught to concentrate and stay consistent he can become a dominant starter! Surely that’s the dream in the hallways of the Twins front office.

* Even though it’s pretty obvious that the Twins have absolutely no way to figure it out based on any sort of objective system.

The problem is that it’s not going to happen. He’s not that guy any more. So if the choice is down to a pretty good chance of 6-7 innings and 1-3 runs from Swarzak and Perkins every time out, versus one of them plus a pretty good chance of 4-6 runs in 5-6 innings from Liriano … then you go with what’s more likely to win you ballgames, and that’s not Liriano. Liriano fulfilling his destiny as a dominant late inning reliever would be a very nice bonus.

It’s close to time to declare that Francisco Liriano is not, in fact, The Franchise. But that doesn’t mean he can’t still be a big success.

PS: Here’s a bonus for everyone who actually read all the way through this on a Friday afternoon. Proof that Souhan doesn’t actually watch the games!

Swarzak pitched 11 scoreless innings to start his big-league career. He has given up three earned runs in 13 innings, and one of them resulted from a misplay of a bloop to right-center in the seventh inning Thursday.

Really? Swarzak’s third run scored on a misplay of a bloop to right center? Because I saw that play, and it scored on a fly ball to right, on which the right fielder (Kubel) actually made a great play and threw the runner out at the plate. The umpire screwed up the call and then ejected the catcher, but I think calling it a “misplay of a bloop” demonstrates one of the following:

1. Jim Souhan didn’t watch the game
2. Jim Souhan doesn’t know anything about baseball

I can’t decide which is more likely (though they’re probably both true). I just find it quite amusing. In fact, it makes me glad I didn’t rant about that play. I feel much better about it now that I have Souhan’s “take” on the whole ordeal.

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