Fire Gardy

Harmon Killebrew has remained interested and somewhat active with the Twins over the years,* and recently John Shipley asked him about young power hitters in baseball.

* And that seems to be increasing in recent years, though part of that could just be due to more reporting during the winter and spring thanks in large part to the internet, and also to the ever-increasing demand for Twins-related information by the team’s excellent fanbase.

He showed his age, I think, by bringing up Michael Cuddyer — who’s not young — but his thoughts were interesting.

“Now,” Killebrew continued, “the real secret in this game, with hitting, is to be consistent. Can you come back and have a better year than you did the year before? That’s the tough part of the game. I hope Michael is still healthy. I know he can. Physically, he’s capable of hitting a lot more than he did last year.”

As everybody knows, Cuddyer put together a great season in 2009, putting up a career high 32 home runs. If anything, Cuddyer has seemingly shown himself not to be particularly consistent, as the perception is that he put together a pair of disappointing seasons in between his two great ones,* but Killebrew’s theory that Cuddyer is “capable” of hitting a lot more homers than he did last year warrants further investigation.

* He broke out in 2006 with a 3.1 WAR season, and 2009 was highly regarded but worth just 2.0 WAR. His 2007 was actually better, worth 2.1 WAR, though a big part of that was probably positional; in 2009, he filled in for Morneau at 1B for a month, which brought down his positional adjustment and counteracted some of the awesome work he did with the bat. He produced a career high 23.2 batting runs in 2009, vs 22.6 in 2006 and 10.5 in 2007. His 2008 was mostly a throwaway year, lost to injury.

Of Cuddyer’s 32 homers in 2009, 13 of them were “no doubt,” according to Hit Tracker — tied for 3th in the AL, behind Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, and Carlos Pena. And that was my impression as well: when Cuddyer connected with a ball, it went a mile. 11 of his homers were “plenty,” which means he got enough of them to get it out of basically any park; these are the standard home runs. Just 8 of his homers were “just enough,”* or balls that barely cleared the fence.

* Compare that to Mauer, whose 11 “just enough” shots were good for 5th in the AL.

But hitting “just enough” homers is not a criticism — you basically need to hit a bunch of them in order to rack up a big HR total. Prince Fielder had 16 of them, Albert Pujols and Mark Reynolds had 14, Kevin Youkilis had 13, Kendry Morales had 12, Alex Rodriguez had 11 … these are all pretty big home run hitters.

What Cuddyer needs to do is put more balls in the air, to give himself a better chance of a handful or two of them carrying just over the fence. If he can do that, while continuing to make the good solid contact he made in 2009, Killebrew could very well be right about his ability to hit more homers. I just don’t know what he means by “a lot more.” It could be similar to what he means by “young,” which apparently includes guys who are 31 years old.

Plus, with the addition of Jim Thome and JJ Hardy to the lineup as well as the potential for an emergence by Delmon Young, Cuddyer could see even more protection than he’s been accustomed to. That can only help.

One final note

in his first time in the cage, Cuddyer laid his bunts down, then immediately drilled a hard liner to center. Thome, with 564 homers in a 19-year major league career, looked up and said, “How do you do that?”

Dear Jim Thome: you don’t care! If Gardy’s plan for you as a pinch hitter involves any bunting whatsoever, that’s his fault. Not yours. Just focus on what’s made you a potential (probable?) hall of famer: smashing the crap out of the ball.

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Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, who has historically been a big Twins-hater, loves what the team has done this offseason. He’s as bullish as we are about the additions of Hardy, Hudson, and Thome, likes the Pavano deal, and thinks good seasons from Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano are within reason. I bring this up, because he has no idea what Vegas is thinking.

Apparently, Vegas thinks that people with money hate the Twins. If there’s one over/under that stands out like a sore thumb, it’s Minnesota at 82 wins. 82 wins – the same as the White Sox, one win more than the Tigers, tied for the seventh best record in the American League. Really? Seriously?

In addition to listing the Twins’ additions, he lists the Tigers’ subtractions, and is confused as to why Vegas would have both teams dropping by the same number of wins.

CHONE has the Twins as an 86 win team, and there’s certainly upside beyond the expected performances of guys like Young, Liriano, and Hardy. My back of the envelope calculations have them at something more like 87 or 88 wins.

I don’t have a projection system of my own,* so I generally don’t like to pull numbers out of my ass … but if I were going to do just that I’d say 87-91 wins sounds about right.

* Maybe I should make my own projection system, though. That could be a really fun project.

That said, Vegas sure isn’t alone in projecting a sour season for the Twins. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system* projects the Twins to “win” the division with 83 wins, just one more than Vegas projects.

* Yes, this is the same projection system that thought Matt “God” Wieters would bat .850 in his rookie year, be immediately elected to the Hall of Fame, and then rise into heaven on a cloud of virgins. So take from it what you will.

Perhaps this interview with Howard Norsetter, specifically when he’s talking about Dutch pitching prospect Tim Stuifbergen, will shed some light on the divergence of perception and reality surrounding the Twins.

This year, some of his control numbers were other-worldly. One game, he threw his fastball 41 times — 39 of them were strikes. He didn’t even make the top 30 lists for some pundits, which is weird.

Part of the problem is that he is an international player without a draft round associated to him, or a high bonus pedigree. At the World Junior Championships in Cuba a few years back, he was named the Most Valuable Pitcher. He pitched successfully against the Cuban senior team when he was 17.

That’s a salient point, and one that gets to the heart of the point. Without a way to accurately measure how good these young players are, analysts have to fall back to indirect measurements, like draft round and signing bonus. Since the Twins rarely even try to compete in that arena, it leaves people wondering “how in the world can the Twins compete when they have so few players we consider important?”

I personally don’t think that’s the whole reason, especially when it comes to PECOTA,* but it stands to reason that it could be part of it. And remember, we’re talking about Vegas here — which bases their picks not on what they think about baseball, but on what they think most people think about baseball.

* I’ve said it before, but I remain convinced that Baseball Prospectus’ roots on the south side of Chicago and ongoing loving relationship with the White Sox cloud its views of the AL Central, and the Twins in particular.

When I was younger, I used to think the national analysts were actively “against” the Twins, which in retrospect just seems foolish. It seems to me now that for the Twins, perception and reality are simply widely divergent; everyone’s opinions are honest and well-formed, but are simply based on information that doesn’t apply, or ignores important data that does. So if you were a gambling man — and for the record, I’m not — you may well be wise to take advantage of this perception gap and take the “over.”

Oh, and one more thing: if you were looking for a new young player to be excited about, Stuifbergen just may be the one. If only because of this:

The first words out of his mouth when he walked off the mound in Holland’s historic win against the Dominican Republic in the WBC last year were “I’m gonna take Papi off my fantasy team — he can’t hit an inside fastball.” And at the World Cup in Europe last year he was outstanding.

Oh yeah. I’m a fan of this guy already.

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There’s an interview with Howard Norsetter, the Twins’ International Scouting coordinator, available right now, and I recommend that everyone read it. There are some really interesting things in there, though you’ll have to take what Norsetter says with a grain of salt — clearly he’s more on the “scouting” side than the “analysis” side of the game, which isn’t a problem in and of itself. The thing I’d be wary about is that he seems extremely optimistic about every player he’s asked about. Still, it’s a good read.

But beyond individual players, the things that stood out for me were his ideas on the international version of the business of baseball, and the Twins’ approach to it.

There is also another dynamic at work; the teams that spend the most get the most attention from the agents. I know a few teams that spent a lot of money in Latin America the last couple of years essentially just to broadcast to Buscones that they are in the market and will spend money like the big boys. The hope is that the Buscones start delivering the better prospects to team’s doorstep.

It seems to me that those teams run the risk of sending a different signal: “we’re willing to spend money, and it doesn’t have to be the best players.” So sure, the buscones will bring you someone, but they’re still bringing their best players to the big teams who’ve shown they’re at least trying to only spend money on talent. They’re bringing middling guys to you and calling them good so you’ll waste your money.

There are agents in Asia who feel like the Twins aren’t worthy of their attention because we haven’t signed the most expensive players. They don’t even bother trying to sell their players to us. Which is a bit short sighted because we have shown that if we think a player is worth the money, we will spend the money to get the player. Sometimes an agent will get offended if you don’t think a player is worth the money they are looking for. If they know that you are willing to spend money in general, they don’t get as offended-they will still come back to you with their next guy. If they don’t think you are ever going to be a player in the market, they won’t waste their time.

Stories like this one are another big reason the system seems so broken. The buscones and amateur agents hold too much power over the young players and over the teams. I’m against an international draft, but something needs to change. Maybe there should be an open combine where all the players can show what they’ve got, followed by an auction where all the teams bid on all the players. In order to level the playing field, perhaps each team is allowed to spend only a certain amount of money in total,* so if you sign a Strasburg-level talent you won’t be able to afford much else that year, or something.

* I don’t know if I really like that, but at least it would protect the new system from the inevitable cries of “well the Yankees would just overbid us and buy all the good players!” which, of course, is what’s happening with the current system. Wait, no, the opposite of that. Not happening.

After trying to defend the Twins from an accusation that they haven’t shown interest in Cuban players (and getting the interviewer to admit that by “interest” he actually meant “successfully signing Cuban amateurs to mega-deals”), Norsetter explains the Twins’ fundamental interest in European players:

You mentioned earlier that you thought that the Twins didn’t have much interest in Cuba: If there were to be pitcher throwing 94-96 with an 87 slider who defects from the Cuban team, we would not be able to sign him. That is why we are in the developing markets like Europe. You hope that you can get a player like Loek [Van Mil] when there isn’t much interest in him, and develop him into somebody who demands a lot of interest.

As you could probably guess, I think that’s brilliant. There are, at the base of things, a few ways to compete on the international markets:

1. Have enough money to sign the players you think are the best, after letting everyone agree on who’s the best
2. Work harder than everyone else to find the best players in known markets, and hope to sign them before the bigger teams learn of them
3. Work even harder than that, to find bargain players that you think will be good but that the big-money teams wouldn’t be interested in
4. Find an entirely new market where nobody else is scouting, and take the top talent without competition

Option #4 takes a lot of guts (what if there aren’t any good players in Europe or Australia this year?), and you’ll only have a temporary advantage in each region. If Loek Van Mil and Max Kepler quickly become good players, other teams are going to flood Europe with scouts and essentially drive the Twins out. Which presumably means they’re going to have to find another untapped source of talent without competition, which will again be a gutsy move (who knows how good the baseball players are in Africa, or Iraq?). But it very well may be the right move.

The current major league roster offers plenty of reason to hope for 2010, but more and more, it seems like the Twins are setting themselves up with a strong pipeline of high-octane talent for the future. The development of a strong international scouting and development program is instrumental, and right now the Twins are the biggest players in under-developed markets like Europe and Australia.

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggeststhat the Red Sox somehow move Mike Lowell to the Twins.  Even if the Sox pick up the lion’s share of the $12 million Lowell is owed for 2010, I don’t see this happening. 

One of our top prospects, Danny Valencia, plays third, so why should we give up prospect to get Lowell for part of a season?  If our production from whoever plays third this year is Punto-esque (which is possible since Punto will likely be getting a lot of starts at the hot corner), wouldn’t you rather they give Valencia a chance than trade for Lowell?  I like Mike Lowell, but I don’t think its the right move. I think the rest of our lineup is good enough where we can afford to have a black hole at the bottom of the order.  It would be nice if Punto (or Harris) could give us something close to league average numbers, but I’m not holding my breath. 

Not really a whole lot to discuss on this topic, but I thought I’d point it out as we gear up for the season and I shake off the blogging rust.

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Since we haven’t posted anything in two weeks, I wanted to make sure everyone knows we still exist.  Here’s a rundown of things that have happened in Twins-land over the past few weeks.

• Pitchers and Catchers reported.  Whoo hoo!!  Baseball has started.  Mijares was, of course, late.  He got held up at security because he had hair gel that wasn’t allowed by what TSA incarnation he was up against.  The good news is he is in camp, not in the best shape, but what did everyone expect?  He doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who has any plans to slim down.
• Joe Mauer still doesn’t have a contract, but he did show up with a kickass beard.
• Justin Morneau plans to “take it easy” this spring.  His hope is to not break down in September.  Let’s hope it works. I trust him, I think he knows what he has to do to keep himself healthy all season.
• According to Denard Span’s twitter feed, Hudson is a great clubhouse presence.  He got Span into the weight room bright and early the other day.  Good to know he already is exerting himself as a team leader.
• Spring training is shaping up to only have a few position battles.  Third base is the big one.  The two candidates are Harris and Punto.  Both will make the team, its just a matter of who Gardy and co. want to start.
• The final bench spot is also up in the air. Will it be the out of options Alexi Casilla? Or a backup centerfielder?  I vote for an additional CF. Does Gardy think Span won’t need any days off?  Or does he think Punto can spell him every once in a while? I cringe at the thought of an outfield defense consisting of Young, Punto and Cuddyer.
• Pitching wise there are many more questions.  Who is the fifth starter? I think we can all agree that Baker, Slowey, Pavano, and Blackburn are guaranteed spots.  So it comes down to Liriano, Duensing, and Perkins for the final spot.  Unless someone like Manship or Swarzak really steps up this spring and takes the final spot.
• I am assuming that Condrey is all but guaranteed a spot in the bullpen, so there aren’t too many questions there.
• Did I miss anything?

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So apparently today is Nick Punto day in the Twins blogosphere.  As most of you know, I am not a fan of Lil’ Nicky Punto.  Mainly because I don’t like baseball players who aren’t good at baseball. Actually that’s the only reason I don’t like him.  So here is my rambling rant, that is bound to piss people off because they like Punto for some idiotic reason.

I’m sure Punto is a very nice guy, but why in the hell does everyone love him so much? He tries hard. So what.  So do a lot of people.  It doesn’t mean we should cheer for them  This isn’t little league where everyone gets a trophy.  He is an adequate defender at 3 infield positions.  So what? It doesn’t mean I should be cheering for him. I think the biggest problem is Gardy’s inability to gauge his actual value. Which is that of a utility infielder.  Not a starter on a contender.

So is this Nick Punto obsession based in his halfway decent 2006 season (which wasn’t really all that good when you factor in he was playing third base) where he was one of the sparkplugs to a team that won the division on the last day of the season? If it is that is BS.  Not only has be done very little to help the team since then, I would argue that he has had two seasons that really hurt the team.  Everyone has bemoaned our general badness at the infield positions lately.  If we simple had league average, or even replacement level production instead of the stinkers Punto put up in 07 and 09 who knows what might have happened.  He was a complete black hole offensively, a free out if you will.  There is no level of defense that would make Puno 07 or Punto 09 an acceptable major leaguer.  I understand the importance of defense, but I also understand that it is half the game. 

So can someone  explain to me why people love Punto so much?  Are there several no talent players who try hard that have a irrational fanbase?  Overall I think he is a useful player to have on the team, shouldn’t be starting nor should he be making 4 million dollars a year.  I also don’t get why we have him AND Tolbert.  Seems like overkill.

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The Twins signed Jacque Jonesto a minor league deal today.  They also cut ties with Jason Pridie, to make room on the 40 man for Orlando Hudson. This is an odd move since Pridie projected to make the team as a backup OF, and Jones hasn’t played in the majors since 08. Oh well, no big loss.  Speedy outfielders who can’t hit are pretty easy to find on the scrap heap, so I’m sure the Twins will find some cheap player who can fill in at all 3 OF spots and pinch run occasionally.

Does anyone have Jason Tyner’s number?

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Lately I’ve been feeling optimistic about the upcoming season, to the point of worrying that I’m over-optimistic. But I sure don’t feel like I’m exaggerating Bill Smith’s job this offseason.

So when someone like Dave Cameron raves about the offseason and the team in general — calling them clearly the class of the division with a chance at a superb rotation — it makes me a little less concerned about how excited I am, and how impressed I am with Smith.

With Hudson, Hardy, and Thome, the Twins have improved their offense significantly. By retaining Pavano and watching Francisco Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball. Their bullpen is still good, anchored by a relief ace and some quality arms in front of him.

It’s hard to imagine the Twins could have had a better winter. They used this off-season to upgrade the team, and while the roster isn’t perfect, they are clearly the class of the AL Central at this point. Adding Hudson is just the cherry on top of what was already a very good winter.

Wow. I think I’m going to have to go back to calling him Wild Bill.

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The Twins made a big splash yesterday by signing their second ex-Dodger, Orlando Hudson. This is excellent news because Hudson fills two needs. A secondbaseman and a #2 hitter. Last season with the Dodgers Hudson hit .283/.357/.415, that will look pretty damn good between Span and Mauer.  Defensively, Hudson has lost a step or two lately, but that didn’t stop him from winning a gold glove in 2009. He had a pretty bad UZR/150 number (-3.7), but he must be flashy enough that people think he deserved one.   Regardless, I think he will be adequate defensively, especially if Punto is covering some extra ground at third.

Last season Hudson was paid $3.4 million, but according to fangraphs he was worth a cool $13 million. He was worth 2.9 wins above replacement in 2009, nothing to sneeze at.

For $5 million dollars and one year, I think this is an excellent signing. The biggest question has to be what happens to Punto? There is no way Gardy doesn’t start him, and I guess I don’t have a huge problem with him starting at third. Maybe platooning with Harris, who has historically hit well against lefties. I see the batting order working out like this Span-CF Hudson- 2B Mauer-C Morneau-1B Cuddyer- RF Kubel-DH Hardy- SS Young- LF Punto/Harris- 3B

That’s a pretty solid lineup. Throwing in Thome every once in a while won’t be taking a step backwards, like it usually is when you rest a starter.

So the way I see it, the Twins payroll is now around 95 or 96 million.  I’m glad the Pohlad family wasn’t just blowing hot air when they said payroll would increase with the opening of Target Field.  Everyone get excited, spring training is just around the corner.

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In the comments on yesterday’s post about Liriano, we had a pretty good discussion that’s worth reading through. There were a couple posts, by semi-frequent commenter Ragstoriches, that stuck out from the flow of the conversation and raise an issue that I don’t think I can do justice to in a comment. So I’m promoting it to a full-blown post, is what I’m doing.

He opened with this:

Liriano’s stuff may be better this winter, but Frankie’s biggest problem of late isn’t his stuff, it’s that he’s a friggin head case. He absolutely cannot deal with adversity – he can throw 6 innings of no-hit ball but a walk and a blooper later he’s in complete meltdown mode, and before you can blink he’s given up 5 or 6 runs.

And after the rest of the conversation had taken place, he closed with this:

So you don’t think Frankie had a tough time getting out of jams last year? Even your stats would prove that. Why did ‘09 Frankie fail to resemble even the 2nd half of ‘08 Frankie – he had another year to recover from surgery, right?

I’m sure games like that happened, but that happens to a lot of pitchers; also, I’ve found that memory is a funny thing, and that it sometimes plays tricks on you. So, without further ado, it’s time to peel back some layers of Liriano’s statistical onion and see just how quickly it can make us cry.

Ready? I sure am.

First, a baseline “this is not a jam” situation (leading off an inning). The first batter of the game had an .863 OPS with a .389 BABIP; the first batter of the inning overall had an .897 OPS with a .337 BABIP. So … not good, but also very unlucky.

His performance was worse than that in every base/out situation except “men on first and second” (when he had a .773 OPS with a .308 BABIP), and “a man on third and 2 outs” (when he had an .830 OPS and a .429 BABIP).

Some notable “in a jam” situations:

• RISP: .922 OPS, .347 BABIP
• Men on: .945 OPS, .369 BABIP
• Man on third: 1.117 OPS, .455 BABIP
• First & third: .908 OPS, .286 BABIP
• 2nd & 3rd: 1.198 OPS, .500 BABIP
• 3rd, under 2 outs: 1.221 OPS, .370 BABIP
• 3rd, 2 outs: .830 OPS, .429 BABIP

Look at those BABIP numbers, please. For the most part, those are ludicrously high, unsustainable for any pitcher. Furthermore, in only three cases are his BABIP numbers in a “reasonable” or “predictive” range; .288 with the bases empty, .286 with men on first and third, and .308 with men on first and second. Meanwhile, in all other cases, his BABIP ranged from .321 up to an absurd .500.

Okay, so base/out situations give us one window into Liriano’s failure when he got into a jam, but there’s more to this story.

Let’s take a look at his “clutch stats,” to see if those shed any more light on what’s going on here.

• 2 outs, RISP: .892 OPS, .359 BABIP
• Late & Close: 1.277 OPS, .545 BABIP
• Tie game: .800 OPS, .303 BABIP
• Within 1 R: .879 OPS, .324 BABIP
• Within 2 R: .866 OPS, .329 BABIP
• Within 3 R: .875 OPS, .333 BABIP
• Within 4 R: .856 OPS, .328 BABIP
• > 4 R: .474 OPS, .259 BABIP

Or we could just break it down by the leverage index, and see how he did in situations of various “game-on-the-line”-itude.

• High leverage: .893 OPS, .371 BABIP
• Medium leverage: 1.009 OPS, .367 BABIP
• Low leverage: .567 OPS, .243 BABIP

Alright. Enough. I think we’re painting a pretty clear picture here.

Liriano had bad basic numbers overall in 2009, but these numbers show that for the most part what happened was that when he was “in a jam” or the game was “on the line,” he got ridiculously unlucky; when it didn’t matter, his luck reversed and he “mowed down the opposition” (ie, the ball found the defenders’ gloves).

Much has been made of Liriano’s strikeouts and walks, of his command of his fastball, of his confidence and his emotional state, of how he seemed to get tired after just a few innings, or that he couldn’t adjust to the adjustments the hitters made the second and third time through the order. A lot of these things are true; especially the ones about his command, and his K/BB ratio.

Check out his peripheral stats:

• 2006: 10.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.6 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.5 K/BB
• 2008: 7.9 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 8.8 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.09 K/BB
• 2009: 8.0 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 9.7 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 1.88 K/BB

Obviously, every single one of those stats is trending in the wrong direction (and that’s why his ERA+ has gone from 207 to 107 to 75).

It stands to reason that eventually, his luck will change and his BABIP will drop back to normal levels; his H/9 should drop back down, perhaps not all the way to 6.6, but perhaps to the 7-8 range. A 1.4 HR/9 is totally unsustainable, and that’ll go back down to 1.0 or so (especially given Liriano’s propensity to generate ground balls).

So even if Liriano’s stuff hasn’t improved, and his K/9 and BB/9 rates stay the same, and the only thing that changes is that he’s not one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game, well, his numbers are going to improve quite a bit. If he doesn’t get better, just less-unlucky, Liriano is an above-average pitcher.

And if the reports about his improved command, velocity, and movement prove true? Well, if you combine that with improved luck, he’s still not back to 2006 but he’s getting close.* And close, really, is good enough.

* I closed yesterday’s post by saying that perhaps I was being wildly optimistic. After seeing just how bad his luck was in 2009, I think that was an overstatement. I’m optimistic, but there’s nothing “wild” about predicting that his BABIP will decrease from its cosmic heights and bring his numbers back into line with his talent.

So no, I don’t think the numbers show that Liriano had an especially tough time getting out of jams last year. I think the numbers show that he was unlucky, that any time someone made contact, the ball found a hole. I think that bad luck may, over time, have gotten into his head; have you ever gotten into a rut where you think that everything’s going to go wrong for you? I have, and when it happens your confidence is destroyed; you alternate between not trying enough and trying too hard, and neither is any good. Recovering from this is hard, and a lot of it is just taking some time off and rebuilding your confidence before you get back to it. It must be nice to have an offseason.

That’s why I put so much stock into quotes like this:

“[It was like], this is me,” Liriano said of the way he was throwing. “That’s the way I know how to pitch. Not worry about anything or any hitter. Just go out there and try to throw first pitch strikes and locate my fastball. I feel like I did in ‘06, I have my confidence back. My arm feels great. Physically and mentally I’m ready to go.”

and this:

“I’ve got my confidence back,” Liriano said. “This winter is the best I’ve felt.”

I don’t see Liriano as being any sort of spin-master, with the ability to concoct an elaborate web of lies for our benefit. I see him more as a simple man, perhaps not fully mature, who hadn’t had to face much hardship until after he’d been thrust into the public eye; and now he’s stuck having to grow up in front of our eyes.

Perhaps it’s naivete, but I trust that he can do it.

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