Fire Gardy

The Twins signed Jacque Jonesto a minor league deal today.  They also cut ties with Jason Pridie, to make room on the 40 man for Orlando Hudson. This is an odd move since Pridie projected to make the team as a backup OF, and Jones hasn’t played in the majors since 08. Oh well, no big loss.  Speedy outfielders who can’t hit are pretty easy to find on the scrap heap, so I’m sure the Twins will find some cheap player who can fill in at all 3 OF spots and pinch run occasionally.

Does anyone have Jason Tyner’s number?

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Lately I’ve been feeling optimistic about the upcoming season, to the point of worrying that I’m over-optimistic. But I sure don’t feel like I’m exaggerating Bill Smith’s job this offseason.

So when someone like Dave Cameron raves about the offseason and the team in general — calling them clearly the class of the division with a chance at a superb rotation — it makes me a little less concerned about how excited I am, and how impressed I am with Smith.

With Hudson, Hardy, and Thome, the Twins have improved their offense significantly. By retaining Pavano and watching Francisco Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball. Their bullpen is still good, anchored by a relief ace and some quality arms in front of him.

It’s hard to imagine the Twins could have had a better winter. They used this off-season to upgrade the team, and while the roster isn’t perfect, they are clearly the class of the AL Central at this point. Adding Hudson is just the cherry on top of what was already a very good winter.

Wow. I think I’m going to have to go back to calling him Wild Bill.

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The Twins made a big splash yesterday by signing their second ex-Dodger, Orlando Hudson. This is excellent news because Hudson fills two needs. A secondbaseman and a #2 hitter. Last season with the Dodgers Hudson hit .283/.357/.415, that will look pretty damn good between Span and Mauer.  Defensively, Hudson has lost a step or two lately, but that didn’t stop him from winning a gold glove in 2009. He had a pretty bad UZR/150 number (-3.7), but he must be flashy enough that people think he deserved one.   Regardless, I think he will be adequate defensively, especially if Punto is covering some extra ground at third.

Last season Hudson was paid $3.4 million, but according to fangraphs he was worth a cool $13 million. He was worth 2.9 wins above replacement in 2009, nothing to sneeze at.

For $5 million dollars and one year, I think this is an excellent signing. The biggest question has to be what happens to Punto? There is no way Gardy doesn’t start him, and I guess I don’t have a huge problem with him starting at third. Maybe platooning with Harris, who has historically hit well against lefties. I see the batting order working out like this Span-CF Hudson- 2B Mauer-C Morneau-1B Cuddyer- RF Kubel-DH Hardy- SS Young- LF Punto/Harris- 3B

That’s a pretty solid lineup. Throwing in Thome every once in a while won’t be taking a step backwards, like it usually is when you rest a starter.

So the way I see it, the Twins payroll is now around 95 or 96 million.  I’m glad the Pohlad family wasn’t just blowing hot air when they said payroll would increase with the opening of Target Field.  Everyone get excited, spring training is just around the corner.

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In the comments on yesterday’s post about Liriano, we had a pretty good discussion that’s worth reading through. There were a couple posts, by semi-frequent commenter Ragstoriches, that stuck out from the flow of the conversation and raise an issue that I don’t think I can do justice to in a comment. So I’m promoting it to a full-blown post, is what I’m doing.

He opened with this:

Liriano’s stuff may be better this winter, but Frankie’s biggest problem of late isn’t his stuff, it’s that he’s a friggin head case. He absolutely cannot deal with adversity – he can throw 6 innings of no-hit ball but a walk and a blooper later he’s in complete meltdown mode, and before you can blink he’s given up 5 or 6 runs.

And after the rest of the conversation had taken place, he closed with this:

So you don’t think Frankie had a tough time getting out of jams last year? Even your stats would prove that. Why did ‘09 Frankie fail to resemble even the 2nd half of ‘08 Frankie – he had another year to recover from surgery, right?

I’m sure games like that happened, but that happens to a lot of pitchers; also, I’ve found that memory is a funny thing, and that it sometimes plays tricks on you. So, without further ado, it’s time to peel back some layers of Liriano’s statistical onion and see just how quickly it can make us cry.

Ready? I sure am.

First, a baseline “this is not a jam” situation (leading off an inning). The first batter of the game had an .863 OPS with a .389 BABIP; the first batter of the inning overall had an .897 OPS with a .337 BABIP. So … not good, but also very unlucky.

His performance was worse than that in every base/out situation except “men on first and second” (when he had a .773 OPS with a .308 BABIP), and “a man on third and 2 outs” (when he had an .830 OPS and a .429 BABIP).

Some notable “in a jam” situations:

• RISP: .922 OPS, .347 BABIP
• Men on: .945 OPS, .369 BABIP
• Man on third: 1.117 OPS, .455 BABIP
• First & third: .908 OPS, .286 BABIP
• 2nd & 3rd: 1.198 OPS, .500 BABIP
• 3rd, under 2 outs: 1.221 OPS, .370 BABIP
• 3rd, 2 outs: .830 OPS, .429 BABIP

Look at those BABIP numbers, please. For the most part, those are ludicrously high, unsustainable for any pitcher. Furthermore, in only three cases are his BABIP numbers in a “reasonable” or “predictive” range; .288 with the bases empty, .286 with men on first and third, and .308 with men on first and second. Meanwhile, in all other cases, his BABIP ranged from .321 up to an absurd .500.

Okay, so base/out situations give us one window into Liriano’s failure when he got into a jam, but there’s more to this story.

Let’s take a look at his “clutch stats,” to see if those shed any more light on what’s going on here.

• 2 outs, RISP: .892 OPS, .359 BABIP
• Late & Close: 1.277 OPS, .545 BABIP
• Tie game: .800 OPS, .303 BABIP
• Within 1 R: .879 OPS, .324 BABIP
• Within 2 R: .866 OPS, .329 BABIP
• Within 3 R: .875 OPS, .333 BABIP
• Within 4 R: .856 OPS, .328 BABIP
• > 4 R: .474 OPS, .259 BABIP

Or we could just break it down by the leverage index, and see how he did in situations of various “game-on-the-line”-itude.

• High leverage: .893 OPS, .371 BABIP
• Medium leverage: 1.009 OPS, .367 BABIP
• Low leverage: .567 OPS, .243 BABIP

Alright. Enough. I think we’re painting a pretty clear picture here.

Liriano had bad basic numbers overall in 2009, but these numbers show that for the most part what happened was that when he was “in a jam” or the game was “on the line,” he got ridiculously unlucky; when it didn’t matter, his luck reversed and he “mowed down the opposition” (ie, the ball found the defenders’ gloves).

Much has been made of Liriano’s strikeouts and walks, of his command of his fastball, of his confidence and his emotional state, of how he seemed to get tired after just a few innings, or that he couldn’t adjust to the adjustments the hitters made the second and third time through the order. A lot of these things are true; especially the ones about his command, and his K/BB ratio.

Check out his peripheral stats:

• 2006: 10.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.6 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.5 K/BB
• 2008: 7.9 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 8.8 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.09 K/BB
• 2009: 8.0 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 9.7 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 1.88 K/BB

Obviously, every single one of those stats is trending in the wrong direction (and that’s why his ERA+ has gone from 207 to 107 to 75).

It stands to reason that eventually, his luck will change and his BABIP will drop back to normal levels; his H/9 should drop back down, perhaps not all the way to 6.6, but perhaps to the 7-8 range. A 1.4 HR/9 is totally unsustainable, and that’ll go back down to 1.0 or so (especially given Liriano’s propensity to generate ground balls).

So even if Liriano’s stuff hasn’t improved, and his K/9 and BB/9 rates stay the same, and the only thing that changes is that he’s not one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game, well, his numbers are going to improve quite a bit. If he doesn’t get better, just less-unlucky, Liriano is an above-average pitcher.

And if the reports about his improved command, velocity, and movement prove true? Well, if you combine that with improved luck, he’s still not back to 2006 but he’s getting close.* And close, really, is good enough.

* I closed yesterday’s post by saying that perhaps I was being wildly optimistic. After seeing just how bad his luck was in 2009, I think that was an overstatement. I’m optimistic, but there’s nothing “wild” about predicting that his BABIP will decrease from its cosmic heights and bring his numbers back into line with his talent.

So no, I don’t think the numbers show that Liriano had an especially tough time getting out of jams last year. I think the numbers show that he was unlucky, that any time someone made contact, the ball found a hole. I think that bad luck may, over time, have gotten into his head; have you ever gotten into a rut where you think that everything’s going to go wrong for you? I have, and when it happens your confidence is destroyed; you alternate between not trying enough and trying too hard, and neither is any good. Recovering from this is hard, and a lot of it is just taking some time off and rebuilding your confidence before you get back to it. It must be nice to have an offseason.

That’s why I put so much stock into quotes like this:

“[It was like], this is me,” Liriano said of the way he was throwing. “That’s the way I know how to pitch. Not worry about anything or any hitter. Just go out there and try to throw first pitch strikes and locate my fastball. I feel like I did in ‘06, I have my confidence back. My arm feels great. Physically and mentally I’m ready to go.”

and this:

“I’ve got my confidence back,” Liriano said. “This winter is the best I’ve felt.”

I don’t see Liriano as being any sort of spin-master, with the ability to concoct an elaborate web of lies for our benefit. I see him more as a simple man, perhaps not fully mature, who hadn’t had to face much hardship until after he’d been thrust into the public eye; and now he’s stuck having to grow up in front of our eyes.

Perhaps it’s naivete, but I trust that he can do it.

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The internet, my friends, is all atwitter with excitement after Mark Rosen of WCCO broke the news that the Twins are close to a 10 year deal with Mauer.

Meanwhile, Buster Olney is reporting that the report of a preliminary agreement is not accurate, and both Jon Heyman* and Joe Christensen agree.

* What, you think he has no place reporting on the negotiations of a non-Boras client? Well, you’re probably right.

“Dan Cook,” whoever that is, points out that Rosen is talking to Mauer’s people, while Olney and the rest are talking to Twins officials. We may not be quite as close as we all want to hope (though I’d take Cook’s report with a big, rock-shaped grain of salt given his lack of reporting history).

All that said, I think it’s about time to look at the Mauer situation in a little more depth, couched in what we know about free agency this offseason and the rumored frameworks of this deal.

With contracts of this length, it’s practically impossible to say whether it’s going to work out. It’s just so much time, and anything can happen. Mauer is 26 now, but he’ll be 37 when this contract ends. Will he be the best player in the game at age 37? Will he even be a catcher by then? It’s literally impossible to know the answer to these questions (but it’s not that difficult to guess that the answers go something like: “No,” and “Maybe”).

But let’s just try and project what Mauer would be worth over this time period.

According to FanGraphs, since his first full season (2005), Mauer has been worth* 3.5, 6.1, 3.0, 5.8, and 8.2 WAR; in dollars: $12M, $22.4M, $12.2M, $26.2M, $36.8M.

* Remember, FanGraphs WAR takes into account that he’s a catcher, but does not take into account how good he is at being a catcher. In fact, their glossary page says this about measuring catcher defense:

If you think Joe Mauer’s catching abilities and leadership are worth one win, just add one win to what we display as his win value here. Quantifying catching defense is something that we just haven’t figured out yet, and so we’re not pretending that we have. Consider it an opportunity to fill in the blanks.

And yes, I do think it’s telling that they specifically mention Mauer as being more valuable than their WAR values state. For the purposes of this column, however, I am not going to inflate Mauer’s value beyond what is stated on the FanGraphs page.

The problem is … those WAR numbers don’t actually tell us all that much. Is he a 3 win player like he was in 2005 and 2007? Or a 6 win player like 2006 and 2008? Or is he a legitimate superstar, 8+ win player like 2009? All these numbers come before his prime; great players tend to peak around 27-29, and the truly great players’ skills diminish slowly through their early thirties. (Plus, you can’t plan for good seasons and bad seasons throughout a contract; you have to value a player at his “true talent level,” pay for that, and then basically hope he meets or exceeds that level in as many years of the contract as possible.)

If we put Mauer’s “true talent level” at around 7 WAR, and assume that he maintains that talent through age 30 at which point he will start to decline at 0.5 WAR per season, his value would look like this over the next ten years:

7 7 7 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4

for a total of 59.5 WAR over the life of the contract.

To translate that into dollars, though, there are a few things to consider. First is that for the last several years, 1 win above replacement has been right around $4.5M on the free agent market … but this winter that has plummeted to the point that teams are only paying $3-3.5M per win on the open market.

Additionally, Mauer is not currently on the open market; the Twins can expect to get a (small) discount for extending him a year early, a year during which he could very well get injured and lose a shit-ton of money (this is standard procedure for all contracts). Beyond that, players on long-term contracts like this sacrifice about 10% of their fair market value in return for the security of the guaranteed contract. And both of those adjustments come before the possibility of a hometown discount — I don’t expect there’ll be much of one, but it’s possible.

So if we’re paying $4.5M per win like teams have been doing for years, that 59.5 WAR over 10 years will cost $267.75M, minus the 10% for security and fudging downwards a bit for extending early … around $230M, making Mauer one of the highest paid players in the league and giving him the third largest contract in baseball history (after ARod and ARod).

On the other hand, if the Twins are using the 2009-2010 offseason as an opportunity to spend less per win on Mauer’s contract, say $3.5M per win, then the deal would cost just $208.25M, and adjusting downward for security and moving early, it’d get down to the $180-190M range.* If the Twins used the current free agent climate to negotiate this lower price, it’d be a remarkably savvy move from a front office that hasn’t been known for that for some time. (And has never been known for shrewd contracts as much as player acquisition.)

* It’s worth pointing out that there will presumably be deferred money in this deal, which further reduces the total value in “today’s dollars.” I don’t know enough about baseball economics to estimate how much of the contract will be deferred and how much it will effect the real value of the contract. So I’m ignoring it here. Just know that deferred money generally means that the contract is worth less than the number of dollars on the bottom line, so you should watch out for the word “deferred” anywhere in reports about his contract.

Of course, these are just the rumored details. Other reports insist that the Twins aren’t going as far as 10 years on a deal. If, as some reports say, it’s just a 7 year contract, we’re looking at just 46 WAR,* putting it in the range of $140-190M range (depending on whether we’re valuing wins at $3.5M or $4.5M).

* I lopped off the final three years on the above projection of Mauer’s value.

On one level, I want Mauer in a Twins uniform until his career ends. On another level, I felt the same way about Torii Hunter and Johan Santana and other players before them; those feelings went away shortly after they signed contracts that the Twins clearly couldn’t afford, which will be paying them top-dollar even after they’ve declined to the point where they’re not even close to worth the money any more. I certainly don’t want to be paying Joe Mauer $20M+ to be a 36 year old former-catcher with bad knees and a balky back.

Long contracts always carry a ton of risk for the team. In Mauer’s case, the Twins are essentially backed into a corner where they must take the risk; that dynamic did not exist in the Hunter & Santana negotiations. Mauer is the hometown hero, the Golden Child, the Baby Jesus of baseball in Minnesota. He, personally, is a big reason the Twins even have a new stadium to move into; if he’s not on the team in 2011, the fans are going to be furious enough that they may well stop coming to the stadium, and the team knows it.

And frankly, the fact that it’s Mauer’s people that are leaking the information about the contract tells me that the Twins just may have done enough this offseason to convince Mauer that they’re dedicated to building a team around him. Both Morneau and Nathan have recently come out and raved about the roster, saying they’ve never seen anything like this in their time with the Twins. Undoubtedly, Mauer has seen the same things.

Maybe I’m just getting swept up in the giddiness of tracking a rumor as it lives and breathes on the internet, but I’m getting more and more confident that we’ll see a deal before Spring Training, and we can all rest a little easier.

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One of the major questions facing the Twins coming into Spring Training* is what exactly they can expect from Francisco Liriano. Everybody knows his story, and everybody also knows that part of that story is that every year, around this time, word comes out of the Twins’ offices that Liriano looks great, is throwing the living fire out of the ball, and we should be set at the top of the rotation, so nobody worry!

* It’s just two weeks away now, by the way.

Of course, those prognostications have been totally false in the past; notably, in 2008 Gardy said he had reports of Liriano easily hitting 97-98 MPH on the gun, with a wicked slider that was as good as it was in 2006 … and then he got to camp and was throwing in the high 80s with no command, and was a total mess. So are they changing their tune about Liriano this time around?

It’s funny you should ask, because the answer, of course, is … of course not!

The swell of positivity surrounding the lefty is the result of his successful offseason in the Dominican Republic, where he led his winter league team, the Leones del Escogido, to the Dominican League championship. After a flurry of dominance throughout the postseason — 3-1 with a 0.49 earned-run average in his seven playoff starts — Liriano reached his pinnacle moment in the championship game, striking out 10 and allowing just one hit in five shutout innings.

‘That’s me. That’s how I know to pitch,’ Liriano said of his winter ball results. ‘I feel like in ‘06. I have my focus back; my arm feels great. (I’m) physically and mentally ready to go.’

Liriano reported that his fastball consistently hit 95-96 miles per hour this winter and that he located that pitch as well, something that’s troubled him since his return from surgery. His slider, he said, regained its previously menacing form. Backing up the pitcher’s assertions are his results — over seven postseason starts, Liriano struck out 47 batters in 37 innings.

Alexi Casilla faced Liriano in the Dominican championship series this year while Liriano was dominating everyone; Casilla hit .344 in the series* but struck out 4 times in 8 PAs against Liriano. He confirmed that Liriano’s slider “looks like a different pitch” and is more menacing than ever. For what that’s worth; I imagine that Casilla thinks every major-league-caliber pitcher is about as good as Nolan Ryan. After all, how else would they all make him look so bad out there?

* Some say he would have won the MVP if his team had won; unfortunately they had to face Liriano in the deciding Game 9. Also … I love that they play a best-of-nine series down there. Those guys know how to play baseball.

So is Gardy going to tell us that all is finally right with the world, and we’ve got our ace?

‘All the reports are that he’s really, really throwing the ball well,’ Gardenhire said of his pitcher who was 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA for the Twins in 2009. “This guy is potentially a No. 1 guy, “Gardenhire said. “Everybody’s always looking for a No. 1 guy. I don’t want to put the pressure on and say he’s a No. 1 guy. He’s had No. 1 stuff, and he’s had No. 1 success before. He could be very entertaining.”

Well, I wouldn’t call that saying everything’s going to work out perfectly. I think Gardy did a good job here of not going overboard with a Liriano projection. Apparently, Gardy has learned his lesson from being burned by these reports from the Dominican Republic over the last few years.

But pardon me for not learning my lesson here, because I’m getting excited. I absolutely cannot wait for Spring Training to start so I can see Liriano unleash the ball again. And if he’s back to normal* the Twins will have basically locked up the AL Central before the season starts.

* And by “normal” I mean “superhuman, like in 2006″ … I felt that needed clearing up.

And since this is the internet, I feel I should make a prediction. I think Liriano’s ERA will be under 3, and I think he’ll strike out 200 people this year. Yes, you can call me wildly optimistic.

Anybody else have Liriano predictions they want to share?

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I was going to write a regular post about this, but I was having trouble picking out just which quotes I wanted to use; there were just so many I wanted! Well, if that’s not a perfect invitation for a nice little fisking, I don’t know what is. So here goes … with a little help from Tom Powers of the Pioneer Press, and his latest on the Twins’ new dedication to winning in the playoffs.

Playing against the Minnesota Twins is like getting flicked in the head with a sunflower seed. At first, there’s no visible damage. But by the end of the summer, and after dozens and dozens of little pings to head, the opposition is staggered.

Plus, it really gets the troops riled up when Gardy rallies them by shouting “get your sunflower seeds ready, boys, let’s gem ‘em!” before the games. The crackling of the little plastic bags sends shivers down the spines of their opponents come mid-summer, when the oppressive heat and humidity makes it difficult to move your head out of the way of a projectile seed and you find yourself lethargically submitting to this absurd torture.

And the Twins win the division.

Well, sometimes, they do.

Then the Twins enter the playoffs brandishing their tiny sunflower seeds and — kapow! — they are the first ones eliminated. How many times have we seen this? After so many entertaining summers the team has gotten no closer to advancing in the postseason.

You mean the level of difficulty takes a big jump up, and the team that just managed to scrape by when it was easier has tremendous problems adjusting, and they get beaten by a superior team in the playoffs? Outrage!

That’s because the Twins always have been built for the long haul.

Actually, that’s interesting. Is it true that the Twins are “built for the long haul,” and if so, how exactly? I mean, is it because they always seem to have nine 4th/5th starters that they can slide in (but lack a good one-two punch at the top of the rotation, which you need in the playoffs), and a handy collection of utility infielders who can step in and play in case players need rest or get injured?

They do enough little things right, make the fewest number of critical mistakes, to be able to squeeze into the top spot.

Oh. Well, I can’t argue with the little things. It’s the little things that make up life. It’s just too bad the Twins don’t do the little things right, and are constantly making critical mistakes. They succeed in spite of that because of their star players, like Mauer, Morneau, and Span.

But the playoffs are about star power and great individual performances. They are about lightning-bolt home runs that come from anywhere in the batting order and pitching gems under fantastic pressure.

Yes, the playoffs are not about a long, boring grind through a miserable summer that drives away a great number of people from their putative national pastime because they have something better to do than watch yet another baseball game on such a nice day. They’re about exciting home runs, epic clutchitude, and gripping story lines that sportswriters can latch onto and use to tell us which players have that little special something that allowed their team to win a few games when it actually matters.

To this point, the Twins have been content to win their division and take their chances in the playoffs.

You can’t win in the playoffs without getting there, so consistently winning your division and hoping to catch lightning one of these years isn’t exactly a bad solution for a mid-market/low-revenue team like the Twins. You think other teams who pull in as much money as the Twins (Pirates and Royals) wouldn’t like to trade positions, and get their asses kicked in the playoffs while we suffer 100 loss seasons in their stead?

That strategy appears to be shifting. The organization is starting to think ahead to October. Winning the division and getting blasted out of the playoffs may not be enough anymore.

Woo hoo! Let’s all dance in the street! Bill Smith isn’t going to play second fiddle any more, and therefore, surely, he’ll start pulling the trigger on some deals that will significantly improve the team.

This is the main reason general manager Bill Smith signed Jim Thome, a veteran of 64 career playoff games. In those games he has 17 home runs. And it’s one of the reasons Smith re-signed Carl Pavano, who had a great playoff run with the 2003 champion Florida Marlins. Pavano sports a 1.71 earned-run average in nine postseason appearances.

Okay, let me get this straight. The problem is that the Twins succeed over the long haul, and have repeatedly failed to win the last series of the season (the one in the playoffs). Rather than stay rational, and realize that the best way to improve their chances in the postseason is simply to improve their team overall … they’re going to invest in players who’ve had small-sample-size success to complement their own players’ small-sample-size failures?

“That’s exactly right,” Smith said. “We have to keep our eyes on what’s at hand, which is to win the division. But once we do that we have to find a way to get past the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels. We have to find a way to beat the best teams and advance in the playoffs.”

And that is why it’s important to have Thome’s 17 postseason HRs sitting on the bench, especially since he hasn’t hit any since 2001.

Smith acknowledges that it might take some effort to keep Pavano healthy. But manager Ron Gardenhire has been a staunch supporter of bringing Pavano back, and Smith agrees.

Damn the torpedoes, as it were. It’s important to invest in fragile middle-of-the-rotation guys and call them the ace of the staff because they’re the oldest and had success in the playoffs many years ago, in their prime. Gardy knows this, that’s why he’s been so good at winning playoff games in his career.

As for the 39-year-old Thome, Smith said he appears to be in good enough shape to play the odd game at first base. Thome has played just four games in the field since 2006, though, so such a scenario seems unlikely.

At this point, I can’t tell if Powers is writing a puff piece, or ripping the organization. He keeps relaying what the team thinks, then pointing out why it’s kind of stupid … but not nearly directly enough.

“But I talked with him and he’s willing,” Smith said.

Oh, he’s willing to play first base? Do you not realize, Mr Smith, that his willingness to play in the field is trumped by his inability to actually do so? Or that the White Sox might have tried to use him at first when Konerko was hurt, or the Dodgers might have tried to use him once or twice to give Loney a break down the stretch?

Smith said he’s still looking around but isn’t likely to make any more moves before spring training. At least, he probably won’t do anything considered major.

So you’re saying that the Twins are no longer content with just winning the division, and they want to start making a move in the playoffs … and they want us to believe that while they’re leaving question marks at half the infield, and the top of the rotation?

That means the Twins will be in the familiar position of trying to “make do” at a couple of positions. As it stands, second base and third base will consist of a mishmash of players. But there just aren’t any decent third basemen available. And the Twins are unwilling to go through the Joe Crede “day to day” thing again in 2010.

Well, the fact that there aren’t any good third basemen available means they shouldn’t consider second base options like Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez. That’s how free agency works, people!

They also lack backups in center field, first base and catcher. In other words, they lack depth.

Because Pridie isn’t a backup at CF, Morales isn’t a backup at C, and Cuddyer/Thome/someone-from-AAA isn’t a backup at 1B.

“Ideally, if we could put a wish list together, we’d get a right-handed bat that can play center field and first base,” Smith said.

That’s your wishlist?! A guy who plays both 1B and CF (?!?!?!) … rather than a solution at second base or third base? A 1B/CF doesn’t even exist in the baseball universe (though something tells me Bill Smith doesn’t realize that), and wasting a roster spot to take playing time away from Morneau and Span doesn’t exactly scream “Great Idea!” to me.

The projected backup catcher, Jose Morales, had wrist surgery and won’t return until toward the end of spring training. Morales is a heck of a hitter but a liability in the field.

It’s more important to have depth in March than it is in August and September, so Morales being injured now means we won’t have depth during the season. And when it comes to a backup catcher, he’s pretty much pointless if he’s not as good as your regular catcher.

But it’s too early to evaluate the roster.

Which is why it’s a good thing the Twins still haven’t evaluated theirs. If they had, they might have realized that they’re planning to play with only half and infield.

There will be plenty of competition among the pitchers, and it’s difficult to say how that will turn out. However, the bigger news remains the recognition of the need to build a bit differently for playoff success. Thome will limit Gardenhire’s flexibility all season. If he’s healthy in October, though, it could be worth it.

Thome will take up a bench spot all season and Gardy will blame the team’s struggles on his lack of flexibility, but once they get to the playoffs then Thome jumps up off the bench and starts socking dingers all over the place! What a plan!

Pavano had four years of health problems before rebounding in 2009. If he finds his pre-2005 groove, he could be a real asset, especially in October. With the exception of the veteran Pavano, the Twins’ rotation is rather green.

The Twins’ rotation has been “rather green” for three years … and it’s all the same guys. At what point are they no longer “fresh-faced youngsters”, and instead “disappointments?”

Soon the Twins will begin flicking their sunflower seeds in Fort Myers.

If the Mayor’s Cup were 100 games instead of just 5, the Twins might have more of a chance of winning it. That’s how The Sunflower Attack works, right?

Once again they hope to ping their way to a division title. Their hope is that, come playoff time, they will be better equipped against the big boys.

Yup, Thome and Pavano will make the difference this year. Or, since Pavano pitched in the 2009 playoffs (he pitched well and lost because he didn’t get any run support), I guess he won’t be a big difference in how they’re equipped this year. So the addition of Jim Thome and his commanding presence on the bench is supposed to put the Twins over the top this year?

And another thing. Given that the biggest improvement the Twins made this year was adding JJ Hardy, who will make a bigger difference on the field during the regular season and the postseason than Thome will … why was he completely omitted from this article? After all, he’s had amazing success in his playoff career. He’s batting .429! He has a 1.000 OPS! What a clutch superstar! (Small sample sizes are important, right?)

That was refreshing. Just as the players are starting to hit the gym again in preparation for heading down to spring training, I need to shake the rust off after a winter of inactivity. So I’d like to thank Tom Powers and Bill Smith for the material, and hopefully material like this keeps on flowing in.

Just remember: baseball season is right around the corner.

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Well it’s official, the Twins signed Jim Thome.  The deal is reported to be for $1.5 million, with up to $750K in incentives.  I’m assuming these are plate appearance incentives.  The price tag on this deal seems too good to pass up, so I’m OK with it.

I have two fears that arose with this signing.  The first is that we won’t pursue any middle infield candidates.  The second is that Jim Thome will stunt the development of Delmon Young.  While Thome has better numbers against righties than Young does, Delmon is still very raw.  Maybe Thome will help him develop as a slugger.  Ideally, the Twins will acquire either Lopez or Hudson in the coming weeks, and Thome will be used primarily off the bench and occasionally as the DH depending on the matchup. If we are facing a pitcher who Thome has historically crushed, then by all means start him.

So, let’s hope that Bill Smith isn’t done making moves, but I am not overly optimistic.

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Joe C is reportingthat the Twins are hot on the trail of free agent DH/Twin Killer Jim Thome.  When I first read this story I was confused.  The Twins already have a DH who cannot hit lefties.  What would we need Thome for?  He made $13 million last year,  so how much of a pay cut can be expected? Would he really be willing to accept a bench role?

Aaron Gleeman opines that he platoon at DH with Young while Kuble takes most of the reps in left. I wouldn’t mind seeing that happen, Thome hits righties too well to be a bench player. While Young is pretty terrible at everything. The biggest question at this point has to be his price tag. The Twins payroll already looks to be in the $90 million range with gaping holes in the infield. Would Thome accept a pay cut down to the $1 million range? I don’t know which AL teams have a hole at DH, but it seems like a team like the Yankees or Red Sox can give Thome more money to do the same job. 

I like the thinking that the Twins need to upgrade their bench, but I don’t think the price on Thome will come down to the point where it is worth it to sign him as a bench player.  If they are committed to giving him the bulk of DH at bats against righties, then I think they should go for it.  Given the current payroll level and glaring holes elsewhere, maybe we are better off going after someone like Ryan Garko as a bat off the bench.  Any money we have available should be put towards a second or thirdbaseman.

What do you guys think about Jim Thome in a Twins uniform?

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See what I did there? Eight is Enough was apparently a tv show at some point in time.

The Twins had eight arbitration eligible players and they signed them today in order to avoid arbitration.  Arbitration is a pretty ugly process, so avoiding it is great. A player basically has to convince a third party why he deserves X dollars, and management has to convince that party why the player doesn’t.  Can you imagine how bridges can be burned if Smith is in a room listing the reasons why Liriano sucks.  With Liriano present. Not fun.

So, here are the contracts:

Pavano- 1 year, $7million

Harris- 2 years, $3.2 million, with various plate appearance incentives included.

Liriano- 1 year, $1.6 million

Hardy- 1 year, $5.1 million

Crain- 1 year, $2 million (that is terrible, by the way)

Guerrier- 1 year, $3.15 million

Young- 1 year, $2.6 million, with various plate appearance incentives.  Should be interesting to see if Gardy benches him down the stretch.  Although the incentives aren’t very significant.

Neshek- 1 year $625K. With a minor incentive  that can kick it up to $700K.

Today was a pretty expensive day for the Twins. I don’t like the 2 million they gave to Crain, I think we would have been better off non-tendering him.  That figure for Guerrier seems a little high.  Especially when we are paying Nathan a boatload of money, you combine that with Crain and that is one pricey bullpen.

I thought Liriano would make a little bit more, but given his crappy year in 2009 I guess I’m OK with throwing him a million and some change in what might be one of his last chances with the team.  If he ends up in the pen, that makes it that much more expensive and upsets me even more.

I don’t really have a problem with giving Harris two years.  He is a useful player who will still be making much less than Nick Punto.

What does everyone else think of the (relatively) big bucks tossed around by the Twins this afternoon? Was it worth it to avoid several ugly arbitration cases? Or would you have like to see Smith take that worthless Canadian Crain down a peg or two?

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